The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (referred to by scientists as the AR5) consists of four reports:
- Working Group I report on the physical science basis of climate change
- Working Group II report on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability
- Working Group III report on mitigation of climate change
- The Synthesis Report
The final draft of the Working Group I report, which attempts to provide a snapshot of current understanding of climate change, will be released and available at http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ tomorrow. The Summary for Policy Makers was approved and released on Friday.
Below is a Cliff Notes version of the key figures, provided with as little commentary as possible. Perhaps we will take a closer look at key findings and areas requiring further research in future posts.
Observed Global Temperature Change during Historical Record
Source: IPCC |
Other Changes to the Climate System
Source: IPCC |
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
Note: Trends in other greenhouse gasses not included in the Summary for Policy Makers but should be included in the full report issued tomorrow.
Source: IPCC |
Estimated Changes in Radiative Forcing since 1750
Note: Radiative forcing can be thought of as a shift in the Earth's energy balance. A basic description is available here.
Source: IPCC |
Simulations of Recent Climate Change with and without Anthropogenic Forcings
Source: IPCC |
Climate Model Projections
Note: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 are scenarios for future concentrations of greenhouse gasses and other climate forcing agents with RCP2.6 representing a highly aggressive mitigation scenario designed to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 2ºC and RCP8.5 representing the most extreme scenario.
Source: IPCC |
What's there to decide? Unless of course you're talking to someone with a counterfactual argument and we know what they are going to say.
ReplyDeleteCMIP - Is this a coupled model (ocean+atmosphere) ensemble?
ReplyDeleteCMIP stand for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Yes, this is a multi-Earth System Model ensemble. More details at http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov.
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