Hilary False Alarm

On Tuesday, I violated one of my cardinal rules by digging into the small-scale details of a medium-range forecast.  As usual, that has left egg on my face.

Of concern at that time was the potential recurving of Hurricane Hilary into the southwest United States.  Ahead of Hilary, a surge of tropical moisture was expected into the lower Colorado River Basin.

While that surge of moisture may yet materialize, Hilary has other ideas.  She kept moving westward and her core of moisture is now expected to continue in that direction.

This is not to suggest that the weather in Utah won't get interesting the next few days.  It looks like it is going to be an exciting week.  Stay tuned.