Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Short-Term Variability and Long Term Trends: Market and Meteorological

What would the media do without short-term market and meteorological variability?  On slow news days they could attempt to cover substantive issues in depth, but that would require investigation and analysis.  Ignore the media hype and separate the short-term variability from the long-term signal and life will be better.

From a meteorological perspective, both the short-term variability and long-term signal are looking pretty good right now.  Yesterday's high was 98ºF, but today will be much cooler.  A potent monsoon surge has pushed into northern Utah.  Check out the rise in precipitable water from ~1.5 cm yesterday morning to over 3 cm this morning.  Looks like they need to reset the scale on the plot below!

Source: ESRL
It's cool and comfortable out there this morning and today's high will probably be only in the high 70s, not much warmer than it is right now.  Showers and thunderstorms will abound.  Enjoy.  This short-term variability is just what the doctor ordered.

As is the long-term trend.  Signs of fall are beginning to appear.  Check out the yellow tint in the trees and the down leaves along the roadside in City Creek Canyon yesterday.  

I don't know what the next few months will be bringing investors, but for us, the long-term trend is a good one.  Fall and winter will be here soon.  

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