Sunday, February 1, 2015

Turn on the Storm Magnet

Last Thursday we discussed how the most of the models were keeping the storm track to our north and that we would need a slight shift southward to improve our prospects for snow.  As discussed in The Snow Potential (or Lack Thereof) from Brush By Storms:

"The most likely forecast scenario for the next week (i.e., through Wednesday) in the central Wasatch is that we continue to see drier than average weather, with just a few periods of snow showers or snow as we are brushed by systems to the south or north.  Although not zero, the odds of a major storm are low and would require a more direct hit than forecast by most of the ensemble members."

Here's what our downscaled NAEFS ensemble forecast for Alta looked like at the time.  Most ensemble members were calling for little or no precipitation Monday–Wednesday of this coming week, although there were a few Canadian ensemble members (CMCE) giving us a shot at something.

More recent forecasts have shifted the storm track slightly southward and are a bit more optimistic that we'll see a bit more snow in the central Wasatch.  The latest forecast plume for Alta is below and the average of all the ensemble members is about 1.25 inches of snow water equivalent through early Thursday morning.  There is, however, a great deal of spread with the driest members producing less than a half an inch and the wettest going for more than 2 inches.  

That's a lot of spread and it reflects a somewhat uncertain storm track in terms of both location and storm intensity.  The bottom line is that we need to turn on the storm magnet and do whatever it takes so that the wetter ensemble members verify.

1 comment:

  1. Nice to see a change from the brutal high pressure. Bring it on!