Mother Nature temporarily halted the mad rush to summer in the high alpine this weekend. Check out the snowpack water equivalent (SWE) at Snowbird. Yes, there's our pathetic wintertime maximum, with a long period (nearly two months) without any major change. By late April, the snowpack had ripened (i.e., warmed to 0ºC through depth) and we began a major melt down with the SWE plummeting from 19.4 inches on April 29 to 11.4 inches on May 7th, an average loss of an inch of water per day.
Then Mother Nature put the stop to that melt off and even added a bit more to the balance, with the SWE at Snowbird now sitting at 12 inches after the Friday–Saturday storm.
Even with that temporary halt and recovery, the current snowpack is about the equivalent to the average/median snowpack conditions in early to mid June.
Six inches of creamy bliss provided surprisingly good turns at Alta today. It was thick, but it skied surprisingly well. I haven't been able to post many photos of ski touring adventures this year, so I'm posting a bunch here to make up for it.
There weren't many people out, but we did run into a few Wasatch Weather Weenies. Good seeing you all getting after it!
When it comes to weather forecasting, the Dr. John song "Right Place, Wrong Time" often comes to mind.
Overnight, however, one has to paraphrase that to "wrong place, right time."
A healthy precipitation band formed as expected, but unfortunately just to the north of the Cottonwoods, as illustrated by the radar image below for 1344 UTC (0744 MDT).
Uncertainty in the placement of that band was one reason why the predictability of the storm, at least in terms of snowfall amounts in the Cottonwoods, was low.
It does look like precipitation will eventually sag southward and affect the Cottonwoods today. I'll go for a 2-6" total through 5 PM above 8500 feet and will probably opt for an afternoon tour just because it's white. Snow levels will be down to 7000 feet or so, but accumulations at those elevations will be lower. Pity the band didn't setup over the Cottonwoods as storm totals would have been more impressive.
We didn't get much mountain snow during the winter, but how about in May? In addition to the smearing of high-elevation snow, graupel, ice pellets, and hail the past couple of days, we have more convective storms on tap for today and tonight. Then, for tomorrow, the models are generating a healthy precipitation band over northeast and central Utah. Below is the NAM forecast valid 1800 UTC (1200 MDT) tomorrow.
What happens in the Cottonwoods will depend a lot on where storms pop up and if and how that precipitation band comes together, but there's a decent chance there will be some white stuff for Snowbird's closing weekend. The models are actually generating a lot of precipitation and high-elevation snow. I see this as a scenario where there's a wide range of possibilities from a few inches through tomorrow afternoon, much of it heavy creamy stuff, to perhaps a foot plus if the band really comes together. I'll be keeping an eye on the sky and may go for a tour.
Sunlit low clouds over the Salt Lake Valley this morning
Weather like this really rejuvenates the spirt, skin, and lungs. Just breathe in that moisture. Oh it feels so good. Two-day precipitation totals along much of Salt Lake's East Bench exceed an inch. Everything looks lush and green in the morning sun.
In addition, it doesn't get much juicier in Salt Lake City than this morning's soundings. Following last night's convective deluge, we are saturated to near saturated through most of the troposphere. There's room for a little moisture below 775 mb, but not much. Give our generally dry climatology, soundings like this make me smile.
Source: SPC
Drier air from the south is moving in, however, this morning and as I write this at 8:30 skies are clearing. Nevertheless, with surface heating, showers and thunderstorms are possible today, although perhaps not as widespread as yesterday. Plan accordingly for the various commencement activities, including those for tomorrow which also looks unsettled.
After a winter of extremes, we've settled into a pleasant spring pattern. Cloud skies, high humidity (by Utah standards), convective storms — what's not to like? Enjoy it while it lasts.
