Sunday, December 4, 2022

Ode to the Low Angle Sun and the Next Storm

I've always said that early snow is better than late snow and this season serves as a case in point.  Early snow enables a longer season, but it also falls during a period when the days are shorter and sun angles lower.  Yesterday we skied mid-elevation southeast facing terrain with great powder despite temperatures reaching about 1˚C.  You can't do that in March (or even February in most instances).  We are fortunate this season to have a great base so early in the year.  Now if we can just keep it going...

Our next shot of snow is tonight and Monday as a weak cold front passes through northern Utah and then stalls just to our south.  The 0600 UTC GFS forecast valid 0600 UTC 5 December (11 PM MST Sunday) shows mountain precipitation and some light valley precipitation as the front pushes through.  

By 1200 UTC 5 December (5 AM MST Monday), precipitation associated with the front has moved southward, but still lingers over the central Wasatch.   

The front then lingers just to our south with precipitation occasionally extending northward to the central Wasatch through late Monday.  

Through Monday evening, the GFS generates 0.49" of water and 6.5" of snow for Alta-Collins.  The ECMWF and HRRR generally agree with this big picture evolution and come in with about 0.5" and 0.78" of water respectively.  The The HRRR is a bit wetter with 0.78".  

Thus, this looks to be a modest refresh with periods of snow and perhaps 5-10" of snow in upper Little Cottonwood from Sunday through Monday evening.  Nothing wrong with that.  

3 comments:

  1. really hoping for and looking forward to a long Steenburgh winter this season!!

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  2. I think the 180hr LCC forecast is drunk and needs to sleep it off.

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    Replies
    1. We have scheduled downtime, so the GFS product is a run old, but if you are refering to the precip generated by the one initialized at 6Z 6 Dec, let's hope it verifies.

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