Monday, July 2, 2012

Monsoon Moisture on the Way

Sick of this weather?  Who isn't.  There may be some changes in store if the models are right.  Both the GFS (below) and the NAM call for a surge of monsoon moisture to push into northern Utah from the 4th to the 5th of July, with precipitable water values reaching over .75".  This should bring an increase in thunderstorm likelihood.

This could be a double edged sword, however, as some of these storms may produce dry lightning and resulting fire starts.

The medium range forecasts are quite interesting.  The GFS calls for further amplification of the upper-level ridge over the central US, resulting in the strengthening of easterly and southeasterly flow over the southern and southwestern US. as we approach next weekend.

This is the type of pattern that should bring substantial monsoon moisture into New Mexico, Colorado, and portions of Arizona and New Mexico.  We will need to see how the pattern sets up to determine if northern Utah will get in on the action.

1 comment:

  1. Dry lightning+ 4th of July =bad,bad news. Let's hope foresome rain!