Saturday, May 9, 2015

Skunked So Far

When it comes to weather forecasting, the Dr. John song "Right Place, Wrong Time" often comes to mind.

Overnight, however, one has to paraphrase that to "wrong place, right time."

A healthy precipitation band formed as expected, but unfortunately just to the north of the Cottonwoods, as illustrated by the radar image below for 1344 UTC (0744 MDT).

Uncertainty in the placement of that band was one reason why the predictability of the storm, at least in terms of snowfall amounts in the Cottonwoods, was low.

It does look like precipitation will eventually sag southward and affect the Cottonwoods today.  I'll go for a 2-6" total through 5 PM above 8500 feet and will probably opt for an afternoon tour just because it's white.  Snow levels will be down to 7000 feet or so, but accumulations at those elevations will be lower.  Pity the band didn't setup over the Cottonwoods as storm totals would have been more impressive.

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