Saturday, September 27, 2014

Washout Game on Tap

It's been impressively wet overnight and thus far today, especially in western Utah.  Twenty-four hour accumulations for the period ending within 1 hour of 1841 UTC (1241 MDT) show several locations in the Dugway area with more than an inch of rain (ignore sites with 0 or very light accumulations as these are almost surely bad).  The 1.22" maximum observed at a couple of sites represents about 15% of their 7.75" annual average.  Accumulations in the Salt Lake Valley and surrounding area are generally around 0.6", with more to come.

Source: MesoWest
A south–north oriented precipitation band is slowly moving across the Utah and is likely to be bringing periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, this afternoon and during the Ute football game this evening.  

The forecast from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR, courtesy NOAA's Earth Systems Research Lab), which will become operational in the near future and provide short-range forecasts at 3-km grid spacing for the continental United States, shows bands of heavy showers moving through the Salt Lake Valley prior to and during the game, with just a few short-lived breaks.  Here are the hourly radar reflectivity forecasts for 2300 UTC (1700 MDT) through 0400 UTC (2200 MDT).

The HRRR lightning threat product shows the potential for some lightning during this period (one time selected for brevity).

The bottom line is that a Washout Game is on tap for tonight, with the potential (but not a guarantee) for a lightning delay. 

1 comment:

  1. Wow, the actual weather for today looks a lot like the models that you had yesterday. What's up with that?