Wednesday, May 21, 2014

A Pesky Trough

A pesky upper-level trough is presently sitting over and bringing showers to Nevada.  This trough is the main fly in the ointment for the Memorial Day weekend forecast as it is expected to slowly move across the southwest United States bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The track, intensity, and speed of the upper-level trough has been subject to uncertainty the past few days.  Overnight runs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) and ECMWF ensemble system center the trough just south of the four corners by 0000 UTC Sunday (6 PM MDT Saturday).

Source: Environment Canada
Source: ECMWF
The system is not particularly strong, but contains sufficient moisture, instability, and dynamics to bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms to the southern and eastern portions of Utah on Friday and Saturday, with a lingering threat in the far southeastern part of the state on Sunday.  Keep an eye on the forecasts and an eye to the sky.

No comments:

Post a Comment