Monday, September 5, 2011

Surf New York

When I read that the Association of Surfing Professionals (ASP) was holding a competition from 1–15 Sep in Long Beach, NY, I naively thought they were nuts.  Emphasis here on naive as I may have a PhD in Atmospheric Sciences, but am a land-lubber who knows nothing of waves.

On the other hand, from what I know about the atmosphere, it looks like the ASP could hit a home run.  Hurricane Katia is cranking away in the tropical Atlantic and appears as though she will be recurving off the eastern seaboard over the next few days.

Source: National Hurricane Center
Not surprisingly, the surf forecast provided by Surfer Magazine shows increasing wave heights, which is probably just what the ASP is hoping for.

The NOAA Wavewatch III site also offers up a great forecast of the waves associated with Katia (based it appears on the atmosphere forecast from the GFS).  Click here for a look (note: this site will update, so in a few days, Katia will be gone.

These are, of course, a very deterministic forecasts and there is a great deal of uncertainty with regards to Katia's track.  That being said, they might just get some good surf for the competition.  I suspect they are hoping Katia will remain far enough offshore to generate waves but not produce strong winds and crappy weather in Long Beach.

Feel free to add to this analysis if you know something about surf (I don't!).

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