Monday, July 3, 2017

Entering the Dog Days of Summer

I love the four seasons, but July in Salt Lake City is a four letter word.  There are probably worst places to spend July, such as central Florida or southern Arizona, but in my view, as a resident of northern Utah, July is my least favorite month.

And, with June in the rear view, the forecasts show that the first half of July is clearly is out to get us this year.  We are looking down the gun barrel of a period characterized by little synoptic variability and just the hope of perhaps a sneak of moisture from time to time to give us a shower or thunderstorm.  To show the lack of variability, below are the 60, 120, and 180 hour forecasts from the GFS showing a ridge centered over the four corners, a ridge centered over the four corners, and a ridge centered over the four corners, respectively.  It's a forecast that is redundantly redundant.

Nor surprisingly, the time-height section for 0-180 hours shows a freezing level that shows little variability, rising only slightly from about 575 to 550 mb (time increases to the left) and very little change in the overall environment from day to day.

If you want variety, about all you can hope for is that the ridge shifts enough or there's a weak wave passing in just the right way to send a bit of moisture our way.  I'm no fan of 10-day icon based forecasts, but what the hell, here's today's from the Weather Channel.

Iceland, how I miss thee...

1 comment:

  1. After being in Georgia and Florida for a week, I have to say that right now it feels just as hot here when you first go outside. But I will also say that the 78 degree dew point is much rougher if you try to run a marathon (did't do this), or even stumble across the yard farther than about 20 feet. This also illustrates how the "heat index" is not a simple conversion factor, the way a lot of people tend to think of it. Anyway, hoping for some nice monsoon to break this stuff up.