Thursday, July 31, 2014

Let's Do It Again?

There's some potential that we will see another major monsoon surge impacting the region on Sunday and Monday.

As presently forecast, the event would feature a nice interaction between systems in both the tropical easterlies and the midlatitude westerlies, specifically a tropical wave that is currently located over southern Baja (red line below) and the westerly flow and broad trough currently located off the coast of California (red arrow).

The upper panel below is what is known as a dynamic tropopause analysis.  It is basically a map of the jet-stream level flow.  If you look carefully, you can see how the tropical wave near Baja slowly moves northward and eventually induces an amplification of the broad trough off the coast of California.  The two features then merge and begin to move northward toward Utah.

This leads to another surge of moisture into the state on Sunday (currently forecast to be a late day arrival into the far northern portion of the state.

If this comes together, we'll have another round of rain and moist, cool weather.

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