|1200 UTC 25 Sep – 1200 UTC 26 Sep IR imagery and|
GFS sea level pressure analysis
|Title and abstract of the seminal paper by|
Sanders and Gyakum (1980)
|Distribution of bomb events from Sanders and Gyakum (1980)|
Major field programs such as GALE (Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment) and ERICA (Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic) were held during the 1980s to better understand and forecast this type of cyclogenesis.
Today, bomb forecasts are much better, and this is largely a result of improved numerical model resolution and better assimilation of satellite data over the oceans. Surprise events are rare and we typically have a good idea of the potential of an explosive cyclogenesis event several days in advance. Below is the 72 hour GFS forecast valid for 1200 UTC 26 Sep (this morning) and it pretty much nails it.
Such a forecast would have been extremely rare in the 1980s, but is common place today.
As shown in the 0000 UTC and recently released 1200 UTC manual surface analysis from the Ocean Prediction Center, the central pressure of this bomb appears to have dropped from about 991 mb to 958 mb in 12 h. Very impressive!