The Trump Administration 2026 budget passback plan would be catastrophically bad for weather prediction in the United States.
Below is a transcript of the letter that I sent to Utah Senator John Curtis and Representative Blake Moore concerning these potential cuts. If you agree (or even if you disagree and want to share an alternative opinion), please consider writing your legislative leaders.
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I am a Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Utah who has worked for 30 years to improve weather prediction in Utah. I lead research to improve the understanding and prediction of winter storms in Utah’s mountains and develop methods to improve snowfall forecasting across the continental United States using artificial intelligence. The forecast techniques my group has developed are used by the National Weather Service and private companies. I am also proud to have served as the graduate advisor for several Air Force officers who are contributing to weather support for our Nation’s defense. I write today as a private citizen. The views expressed in this letter are mine and independent from the University of Utah.
The Trump Administration’s 2026 budget passback plan would be catastrophic for the future of weather prediction in the United States, reducing our ability to anticipate, prepare, and respond to high-impact weather including winter storm, severe thunderstorm, and wildfire hazards that affect Utah. It would gut the NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Office, 10 NOAA Research Laboratories, and 16 Cooperative Institutes, essentially eliminating nearly all of the critical research done by NOAA.
We are already seeing the impacts of the Trump Administration on the National Weather Service and the broader US Weather Enterprise. National Weather Service offices, due to staffing cutbacks, are reducing overnight staffing at forecast offices, decreasing the frequency of weather discussions for fire weather and spot forecasts, lowering the frequency of weather discussions for aviation forecasts, and making decisions for critical some watch/warning/advisory products only on day shifts (see, for example, https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25899644-changes-coming-to-nws-sacramento-products-services/).
The 2026 budget passback plan, however, would not only further degrade National Weather Service forecasts and decision support services during critical high-impact weather events, but halt ongoing research to advance satellite, radar, and other observing systems; create next generation computer forecast systems; and expand the use of artificial intelligence for weather watches and warnings. These cuts will have significant impacts on future weather prediction in Utah, which given our climate and complex terrain is highly variable and stands to benefit greatly from advances in the areas above. Let me give three examples:
• Winter storm forecasting. Utah’s complicated geography, topography, and water features such as the Great Salt Lake produce extremely localized snowstorms that are not well forecast by current National Weather Service forecast modeling systems. In other countries with complex terrain, such as the Alpine nations of Switzerland, France, and Austria, computer models are being run at much higher resolution to account for terrain effects. There is tremendous potential for improved forecasts for Utah if NOAA can continue its computer model development efforts.
• Coupled atmosphere-fire modeling. Currently, there is no operational capability to simulate and forecast the interactions between wildfires, vegetation, and the atmosphere that cause wildfire blowups and severe wildfire behavior. Ongoing research is building modeling systems capable of doing this and advancing our ability to better anticipate wildfire spread in the future.
• Seasonal water-resource prediction. Long-lead-time forecasts of temperature, precipitation, and mountain snowpack are vital for anticipating the spring runoff. Future advances in our understanding and prediction of year-to-year variations in snowfall and spring snowmelt dynamics will enable our water managers and agricultural communities to make better decisions.
Recently, the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association, which represent all of these sectors, released a statement summarizing the implications of these cuts (https://blog.ametsoc.org/tag/ams-statement/). It summarizes well the importance of NOAA for the Nation:
“Without NOAA research, National Weather Service (NWS) weather models and products will stagnate, observational data collection will be reduced, public outreach will decrease, undergraduate and graduate student support will drop, and NOAA funding for universities will plummet. In effect, the scientific backbone and workforce needed to keep weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings accurate and effective will be drastically undercut, with unknown — yet almost certainly disastrous — consequences for public safety and economic health.”
I ask that you evaluate the proposed cuts, their impacts on the protection of lives and property in the State of Utah, and the potential benefits that will be lost if these cuts are enacted. NOAA research is an investment that greatly benefits Utah and the Nation.
Thank you for your consideration.
Sincerely,
Dr. Jim Steenburgh
Well said. Someone needs to push back on the cuts to research and services that contribute greatly to our public safety and national security, which are core functions of any sensible government.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the letter. Though wisely not included in your statement, it is valuable for your readers and the public at large to understand why this research will not be conducted by the private sector. I believe there is a deep misconception about this. Folks think why do we need NASA if Space X does the same thing better? Perhaps you could address this topic sometime when it’s not spring ski weather.
ReplyDeleteIf only our representatives would actually read these letters and listen to us, instead of having some intern send out cookie cutter replies feigning understanding
ReplyDeleteIt will be ok. I’m sure there’s a lot of grift that can be cut out just like all government agencies. I mean, look at your own university for crying out loud. Are you’re telling me money isn’t being pissed down the drain?
ReplyDeleteThis comment is fascinating. You are a reader of Jim’s super nerdy and unique snow blog, where he frequently writes about technical data and uncertainty. Yet when he writes the budget plan would have “catastrophic” effects on weather prediction, you think he’s overreacting or overlooking the benefits. Where in this blog have you ever seen evidence that Jim ignores possible outcomes?
DeleteTo be clear, this isn't an audit, budget cut, or reorganization. It is essentially the complete elimination of NOAA research. These are groups that have developed the national Doppler radar network, satellites, computer models, etc. Those things that make forecasts and warnings better, more accurate, and more actionable, protecting lives, property, and economy.
DeleteThe U should start with eliminating the tampons in the men’s restrooms.
DeleteYes, we should get some incompetent, white, possibly day drunk man to form a central planning committee on appropriate paper products for our glorious men’s bathrooms. One the tampons are out, maybe some gold accents?
DeleteOrangeman need more money for billionaire tax cuts stat! All you avg peeps can pound salt...
ReplyDeleteHe’s your daddy
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