Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Impacts of Trump Cuts at the U

A recent article in the Deseret News highlighted that the University of Utah could be in danger of losing $100+ million annually due to the Trump Administration's grant policies.  

In reality, as discussed to some degree in the article, the policies and budget being pursued by the Trump Administration are far worse than that.  

Although it's a bit ambiguous what the Deseret News editor's based the $100 million figure on, it appears it is the proposed reduction of indirect cost rates applied to grants from current levels (which vary by institution but are typically in the 45–60% range with some lower and higher rates) to 15%.  At the University of Utah, the current rate is 54%, which is applied to most grant expenditures except for a few things such as permanent equipment over $5000, tuition, and participant support. Indirect cost rates are negotiated between institutions and federal agencies and are meant to cover administrative overhead, facilities costs, etc.  For example, I need access to staff to administer my grants and building space for staff and students.  Those costs are not explicitly included in my grants, but are part of the indirect costs. 

The Trump Administration has proposed to cut indirect costs to a rate for all institutions of 15%.  Although many faculty (including me) grumble about the size or growth of indirect costs, the reality is that they are a necessary component of any grant.  A 15% rate is far too low and would not recoup many of the implicit costs of doing research at most institutions.  

As discussed in the article, an alternative is being proposed, which is called the FAIR model and provides more explicit accounting of the indirect costs.  One of the lead developers of this effort is Kelvin Droegemeier, who is not only former White House Office of Science and Technology policy director, but also a Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois.  It's unclear if this will gain traction.

In addition, the $100 million loss emphasized in the headline actually sugarcoats what the Trump Administration is purusing.  The President's budget cuts the National Science Foundation by 55% and the National Institutes of Health 40%.  It also cuts NASA, NOAA, DOE, and EPA.  It is a vicious attack of science pursued or funded by government agencies.  

Thus, the decline in indirect costs, is just the tip of the iceberg.  Under the President's budget, the U's federal funding would decline precipitously, perhaps by about 50%.  

But it gets worse than that.  Federal funding supports graduate students and graduate student tuition.  Without that support, some will not continue in graduate school.  This will result in a decline in student credit hours and tuition.  These are indirect effects that will have very real impacts students and the University of Utah, as well as the development of a STEM workforce.  

In theory, congress ultimately passes the budget, although it has failed to do this in full for a very, very long time, relying instead on a patchwork of bills and continuing resolutions.  The last I saw, cuts in appropriations committees in the Senate and House for the NSF, for example, were $16M and $2B, respectively, which are smaller than proposed by the Trump Administration, but in the case of the House, are still massive. 

Ultimately, the U and its students have a lot to lose, but really we all do given the return on investments in science for advances in medicine, health, technology, and economic development.  

Tuesday, July 22, 2025

A Pleasant July by Recent Standards

As we enter the climatological hottest part of the year, it seems like this July hasn't been as awful as those in recent memory.

Indeed, looking at the observations from the Salt Lake Airport, the first 3 weeks of the month have come in as cooler (based on average temperature) than the previous four years.  

Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

So, perhaps not too bad by recent standards.  

However, things look different with a long-range view. As evident in the time series above, this July 1-21 still rates as the 11th warmest on record, ahead of any similar period during the 20th century.  

And if you are wondering if that is unique the the airport, it isn't.  The July 1-21 mean temperature at the Bountiful Bench site, with continuous records back to 1975, are also the 11th warmest on record, ahead of all 20th century years for which data is available.  

Insert your complaints in the comments below...

Saturday, July 19, 2025

Friday Night Lights

We had a brief interruption of weather monotony yesterday evening in northern Utah with thunderstorms in portions of northern Utah including Utah County, southern and eastern Salt Lake County, Wasatch County, Summit County as illustrated by the radar-estimated precipitation for the 6-hour period ending 0600 UTC 19 July (0000 MDT Saturday).  

Source: https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

Northern Salt Lake County, including my place, was largely skunked other than some sprinkles or light showers and gusty winds.  We did get a bit of a light show from the lightning, as well as some weakly developed mammatus


and a primary and secondary rainbow. 


In other news, I am enjoying a temporary office-free period as my boxes were moved from the INSCC building to the new Applied Science building late last week, but I still don't have access to the latter.  If memory serves correct, I spent 27 of my 30 years at the U in 488 INSCC.  I leave behind lots of great memories there, including our old computer teaching lab, interactions with scores of graduate students, weather research and modeling for the 2002 Olympic Winter Games, many field campaigns, and a lot of hooting and hollering during exciting weather.  


Below is the oldest digital photo I could find from the early INSCC days (technically 5 years after moving in). 


Oh to be young again, even with the slow computers and small screens!

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

New Digs for Atmospheric Sciences (and Physics and Astronomy) at the U!

Today was the ribbon cutting for the new L.S. Skaggs Applied Science Building at the University of Utah.  Look closely for the oversized red scissors.


The building is a game changer for Atmospheric Sciences and Physics and Astronomy at the University of Utah.  Both departments have been in old, decaying buildings for many years (with a few exceptions such as myself who was in a newer building but isolated from most of my colleagues).  We now have a gorgeous, state-of-the-art facility!

A quick tour.

The auditorium.  Looking forward to teaching or giving seminars here.  


The (still-to-be-finished) computer lab where we will be teaching weather analysis and forecasting classes.  


Meeting rooms remain important and I'm hoping to get squatting rights for occasional meetings in this one so I can stare at the views instead of the monitor. 


The future home of Professor Powder.  Sadly, I will no longer be able to see the central Wasatch (I think Physics and Astronomy faculty have dibs on that side of the building), but it's the north side of the building, so it has the right aspect to avoid direct sun.    


The 3rd floor has a blockbuster view to the west.  I can't wait to watch cold fronts, outflow boundaries, and lake-effect storms from here.  The excitement will be palpable!  The physicists have no idea what they are in for.  


The roof is going to be great for astronomy and meteorology, with the left side dedicated to weather instrumentation (not installed yet).  


You can learn more at the Applied Science Project web page or watch this YouTube Video.

Support for the building comes from the State of Utah and many donors, including Department of Atmospheric Sciences faculty, alumni, and friends.  I don't have a complete list and don't want to leave anyone out, so for now I'll just say thank you so much from a grateful department.  If you were unable to make the ribbon cutting today, I'll be happy to give a tour in the future.  Give it a few weeks so that we have more instruments on the roof.   

My current office is completely packed and the movers are coming tomorrow.  It's still a bit unclear when I'll be in the new location, but hopefully sometime next week.  

Monday, July 14, 2025

Status of the Great Salt Lake

The current elevation of the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor on the south shore is 4192.4 feet.  Although this is above the record minimum from 2022, it is still well below the long-term average of 4200 feet and the so-called minimum health level of 4198 feet.  It has now been about 13 years since we were last at that minimum healthy level. 

Source: USGS

A look over the past year shows a net decline in elevation on this date of nearly 2 feet.  Lake levels will decrease further in the coming months as they typically decline through the summer and fall.  Last year we dropped about 2 feet after this date. 

Lake elevations over the past year at Saltair. Source: USGS

The current elevation at Saline in the north arm is 4191.9 feet, which is very close to where it was last year. 

Lake elevations over the past year at Saline. Source: USGS

So it's a "push" in the north arm and a net loss in the south arm, which means a net decline for the entire lake system, 

Yesterday's crystal-clear skies provided a great view from NASA's MODIS instrument.  There's still a bit of water in Bear River Bay and a sliver in Farmington Bay, but for the most part, those bays are desiccated of water coverage.  

Source: NASA

Keep rooting for big snow years.  We need a few of them. 

Friday, July 11, 2025

Very July-Like Pattern

It's pretty slow in the weather department these days.  As is often the case in July, the storm track is well to the north and the GFS forecast for the next 10 days (below) shows just some gasps monsoon moisture to give us some afternoon clouds and maybe some showers or t-storms from time to time.  


Perhaps one of those monsoon surgest can be a bit more potent.  There's one near the end of the forecast period that runs through western Colorado and Eastern Utah.  Maybe it will pay a visit.  That said, this looks about as July-like as July gets. 

A colleague commented that it seems like it has been pretty dry.  Since mid May , there have been four days with measurable rain at the Salt Lake Airport: May 15 (0.21"), May 18 (0.73"), June 22 (0.16"), and July 4 (0.16").  If we were to make it to July 20 without any more precipitation, the 2-month period from May 20 to July 20 would be the 8th driest on record (the lowest such period for precip is 0.05" in 1889).  We'll see though if that pans out though.