April got off to a good start with the April Fool's storm, but since then, it's been dry. That dry streak looks to continue through the work week with all members of the Utah Snow Ensemble flatlined for Alta-Collins until 1200 UTC 12 April (6 AM MDT Saturday).
A few members are excited about snow on Saturday night and Sunday, but most are producing snowfall amounts in the low single digits. The reason for this is a compact upper-level trough expected to move across the northern Rockies over the weekend. At 1800 UTC 13 April (Noon MDT Sunday), it's centered over Montana in the latest GFS forecast.
The trough is fairly dry on its south side, so most of the model runs are giving us a good hard freeze but not a lot of snow. Basically a good recipe for bone-rattling coral reef conditions, perhaps with a skiff of snow on top on Sunday. Sounds bad.
If the trough can dig more than currently advertised by most of the members, perhaps we can do better. About 10% of the ensemble members produce 10" or more by 6 PM Sunday. Those odds are long, so yardwork is looking like a good option unless things change.
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