September has been dry so far (0.15" at KSLC) but looks to go out with some rain as a weak front moves through tomorrow. The latest GFS has precipitation over the area at 1800 UTC (1200 MDT) Tuesday.
I suspect the precipitation will be in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The operational models run by the National Weather Service struggle to properly generate such small-scale precipitation systems. The HRRR does the best and it shows the scattered nature of the precipitation at 1900 UTC (1300 MDT) tomorrow.
The experimental RRFS is a six-member ensemble run at 3-km grid spacing. For the 24-hour period ending at 0600 UTC 1 October (0000 MDT Wednesday) it's mean precipitation over the northern Salt Lake Valley (upper right panel) is between 0.1 and .25", but there are some members that skunk us (see the minimum at lower left). Maximum is around 0.5".
Let's hope we get some. We can sure use it.
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