We Should Get Some Today

Our excruciating wait for "real rain" is almost over.  The isolated showers and thunderstorms that have largely missed many portions of the Salt Lake Valley or provided only some paltry precipitation amounts are now in the past.  Today we will see more widespread showers and thunderstorms.  

This morning's 1334 UTC (0734 MDT) radar imagery shows fairly widespread precipitatio over the south arm of the Great Salt Lake and Bear River Bay, as well as showers farther south in Utah County and southeast Tooele County.

This morning's sounding is "juicy" with a surface dewpoint of 56 and 1.2 inches of precipitable water, which is the depth of water you would have if you condensed out all of the water vapor in the column.  Although not exceptional, it's fairly high.  The daily record for August 26 in the sounding climatology is 1.17", although we have seen values as high as  1.66" on August 14 and 1.43" on September 3.  

Source: SPC

Models like the HRRR are producing forecasts consistent with periods of showers and thunderstorms through the day today.  The 0600 UTC run produces measurable precipitation across most of northern Utah (there are a few precipitation free areas in the West Desert), with some areas receiving more than 0.5" and peak amounts just over 1".  

The chaotic nature of convective storms is such that one can't count on the spatial detail of forecasts like that.  In fact, that run completely missed the convection that is currently over the Great Salt Lake.  Instead, we will have to see what comes at any given location as there will be variability in where these storms produce rain. Hopefully we will see wide spread beneficial rains with moderate precipitation rates and not too many storms that produce intense, slow-moving, gully washers.