Transition to a More Active Pattern?

Fall this year has been pretty quiet and warm.  September at the Salt Lake City Airport brought only 0.42" of precipitation compared to a normal of 1.06".  October only 0.61" so far, compared to a normal of 0.96" for the month to date.  

Average temperatures for September 1 - October 22 have also been remarkably high.  In fact, they are the highest on record, with a mean of 70.2°F, just ahead of the same period in 2022 (70.1°F). 

We had a mainly dry frontal passage in the Salt Lake Valley last night, so it will be cooler today before ridging returns, but the models are now advertising some major changes next week including a deep trough forecast by the GFS to be over the western US at 1200 UTC 29 October (6 AM Tuesday).  

Snowfall produced by this system will depend a lot on track as this one has some potential to "go south" literally and figuratively.  In the GFS forecast above, much of the flow and dynamics is going into southwest Colorado, for example.  As a result, the GFS forecast, while dropping temperatures substantially in upper Little Cottonwood early next week, is only generating 0.38" of water and 5.5" of snow through 12 PM MDT Thursday, better known as Halloween. This includes a bit from the trough on Tuesday and then another one that drops in on Wednesday.

A look at the Utah Snow Ensemble shows that the means of the downscaled GEFFS and ENS ensembles are about 0.6 and 0.7" water and 8" and 10" of snow, respectively, through 1200 UTC 31 October (0600 MDT Thursday).  The range though is quite large, from nothing to 22" for snow, reflecting uncertainty in the trough characteristics as it swings through the western US.  A few members generate some snow later in the forecast period in early November, although there are others that stay dry.  

My take is that we are starting to see the transition to a more active pattern as the jet stream strengthes with the approach of winter, although storm systems can come in fits and starts this time of year at Utah's latitude.  That said, right now the ensembles are not giving good odds for a big enough dump to ensure ski touring in grassy areas and meadows by the end of October.  Things will either need to come in above the snowier members or you will need to have extremely low standards for skiing quality and personal safety.  Concentrate on the hoping for the former and reevaluating the latter.