Our run of dry weather looks to continue through this coming weekend. Since January 9, Alta Ski Area has recorded only 2.5 inches of snow. If we make through Sunday, February 8 without any more snow, that will be 2.5 inches in a month (31 days).
The models are showing some signs of life next week. The Euro, for example, has a cold front moving into northern Utah Monday night and Tuesday.
That's still a ways away so I'm not betting the farm on it, but a look at the Utah Snow Ensemble shows some signs of life in a number of the members.
If you are a glass half-full type, half the members produce 1.02" of water and 14" of snow by 11 PM Wednesday 11 February If you are a glass half-empty type, half themembers produce less than that. More than 90% of the members produce more than 2.5" of snow, so there's a better than 90% chance that we will better what we got over the past month! So exciting!
But for now and through the weekend, it's God bless the groomers.
Seems like more often than not in the long range, the ENS starts to show a trend and then the GEFS picks up on it. Am I imagining things? Do the GEFS members add any predictive value, or do they just increase the variance?
ReplyDeleteWe have not examined that problem specifically for the Utah Snow Ensemble. In other applications, the ENS is typically the most skillful model, but adding a other ensembles like the GEFS further improves forecast reliability.
DeleteIn part, this reflects the reality that while the ENS is the best ensemble, it's not massively ahead of the others and it also has biases and limitations.
God bless the mountain bike!
ReplyDeleteThe Wasatch took “Dry January” far too literally. It’s time to get on with it….
ReplyDelete🤠🎅
ReplyDeleteGreat news, bring on the snow!
ReplyDeleteHave ever you looked into the 11-year solar cycle and compared it to precipitation in Utah? I did a comparison with all of the snotel data since 1981 compared to the 11-year solar cycle and found a very strong correlation! Conclusion was Utah has an increased chance of above normal precipitation surrounding the solar minimum years and an increased chance of less precipitation surrounding the solar maximum years.
12:49 PM
Correlation isn’t causation?
DeleteAgree correlation isn't always causation but it sure can be. Now that we have 45 years a snotel data that you can compare to the 11-year solar cycle it's very clear that Utah is getting more precipitation near the solar minimum years and less precipitation near the solar maximum years. The data doesn't lie, the chance of some other cause of this correlation having an 11 year cycle would be remarkable. If you or anyone else have other ideas of what the cause of this correlation is I'm all ears. For anyone that wants to see the data go to utahweather dot blogspot dot com.
DeleteWhy would the sun have that effect on just Utah and nowhere else? What specifically is, "...very strong correlation", statistically speaking? Perhaps you could write up a paper for publication to counter those already published on the subject and offer up your evidence for criticism by experts?
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DeleteI have only looked at Utah so far but the 11-year solar cycle very likely has an effect on precipitation patterns outside of Utah. I'm calling 80% or more of the years a strong correlation. If you look just at the eight solar min/max years in Utah since 1981 all but one solar min year during the 2019-2020 water year matched up with above/below normal precipitation, 88%. If you look at the solar mix/min year and expand it out to a three year period to include the year before and after you find 17 of those 21 years (81%) matched up. Note, if the water years precipitation was within 2% of normal (two times) I did not include those years.
DeleteGetting back correlation isn't causation. The possible cause of the increased/decreased precipitation correlation to the 11-year solar cycle could be because the amount of cloud formation has been linked to cosmic rays. The earth's magnetic field is influenced by solar activity, the more solar activity the stronger the earth's magnetic field and the less cosmic rays reaching the earth's atmosphere. Cosmic rays ionize the atmosphere which provides condensation nuclei for water droplets to condense on, more cosmic rays equals more clouds and the potential for more rain/snow to fall.
Write it up. Show your work. Include sources and references. Submit it to a relevant publication for review.
DeleteIf I can find someone at the University of Utah that wants to collaborate on a article/publication I would do it.
DeleteThe high elevation tiller made groomed runs on natural, not man made snow, are still great skiing until skied off in the afternoons. I was on the cat crew at Alta for 20 years and in these low tide seasons we would just track up sections of runs. The I would take a cat with a 500 gallon water tank on the back and spray the run with water, let it set up, then go back and till it in. Lots of graveyard work and anything we can do to preserve the snow pack and enhance the skiing. Ullr bless the groomers indeed!
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