A Pretty Splitty Pattern

The mild first-half of November is now in the books.  The Salt Lake City International Airport came in with the warmest on record with an average temperature of 53.0°F.

Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Last night's storm dropped about 4" on Alta Collins.  Not much to get excited about.  I haven't looked carefully, but the big winner appearred to be Ben Lomond Peak which got about 2.3" of water and had a total snow depth of 10" at 5 AM this morning.  

The pattern continues to look splitty for the next few days.  Just an an example, below is the GFS 500-mb height (contours) and wind speed (color fill) forecast valid 2100 UTC 20 Nov (2 PM MST Thursday).  The Pacific Jet is forecast to be well consolidated near 150 W but split upstream of the North American coast into two branches, one moving through western Canada and the other over northern Mexico.  

The various ensemble forecasts either keep us dry or give us some light amounts as systems in the southern branch of the jet brush by.  The Utah Snow Ensemble forecasts for Alta-Collins from last night show a bit with last nights storm through about 25 November, most members give us scant precip. 

A few push the southern track storms far enough north to give us some decent water and snowfall totals, but there are only a few of these.  At least 75% of the members give us less than 10" of snow and less than an inch of water.  

Paraphrasing Thomas Paine, these are the times that try ones soul.  The summer lover and sunshine worshiper will, in this crisis, shrink from the mountain climates; but one that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of powder when it returns.