With about 2.5" of water and 23" of snow, the Best Forecast (So Far) This Season, which we discussed on Christmas Eve, is verifying well so far at Alta Collins. The yellow dots are my best guess of where things stand as of 8 AM/15Z this morning showing us in the upper end of water equivalent and about in the middle of the Utah Snow Ensemble forecasts.
For today, the 12Z HRRR is generating 1.25" of water and 10" high-density of snow from 8AM through 11 PM. This is on top of the couple of inches that it was producing from 5-8 AM earlier this morning, which appears to have verified nicely. I like another 6-12" of high-density, upside-down snow before this storm winds down this evening. Note that with the KMTX radar out, this is even more of a guess than usual.
Did I say high density and upside down? It's a warm storm though, and getting warmer. I suspect snow levels this afternoon will be pushing 7500 feet. They may go higher than that this evening if the precipitation hangs on.
Raining steadily and 38 deg in Ogden Valley. 2.25 to 2.5 inches of water 27th and 28th to 5pm. Snowshoeing conditions at North Fork - great trails, but character-building otherwise.
ReplyDeleteSad, 2.5" of could could easily be a couple feet of snow...
DeleteExactly. 5 to10 years ago we would have been shoveling out feet of the stuff. 😥😥
DeleteIf I didn’t know any better I’d think you were complaining. No snow to shovel in town and great runs in the mountains sounds like a dream come true to me!
DeleteWhat are the differences between this storm cycle and the 2003 Christmas storm cycle that occurred over about the same time period and dumped like 3-4 ft on the benches and 2 ft at airport? Does it just come down to temperature or were the genetics of the storms fundamentally different in some way?
ReplyDeleteIn simpler terms I'm wondering how much climate change is responsible for
DeleteI don't remember enough about the 2003 storm cycle, but there are many reasons why one storm might produce heavy valley snow and another won't.
DeleteClimate change shifts the statistics of weather, so such storm-to-storm comparisons are not all that insightful.
How abnormal are these temperatures we've been seeing? 50s in the valleys and mid to high 30s in the mountains?
DeleteRecord highs in late Dec are 57-61. Average is 37-38...based on the past 30 years. December as a whole was about 4 and 6.5F above average for the min and the max, respectively.
DeleteI just did a post on 2024 warmth.
Pineapples vs. salmon. It’s nothing more than that folks.
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