Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Hell Is Coming


Enjoy the "cool" weather this week because I just looked at the forecast and hell is coming.  

One of my rules of thumb is the 20/20 rule for temperature.  Anything below -20C or above 20C at 700 mb (about 10,000 feet) is exceptional for northern Utah.  

The latest GFS forecast for 0000 UTC 12 July (6 PM MDT Thursday) have us in the 20–22C range.


And the latest NBM forecast for the Salt Lake International Airport shows a gradual warming trend after tomorrow well into the triple digits by next Thursday with highs into the triple digits.  Of the forecasts used for the NBM, the median high is 104. The upper 25% are 108 or greater.  

Source: https://apps.gsl.noaa.gov/nbmviewer

The NWS is already messaging the potential for dangerous, record-breaking heat.  

Source: NWS, obtained 3 July 2024

A cruel reminder that July is a four-letter word.
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7 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 3, 2024 at 11:39 AM

    I have been in the Ut for 33 years at this point and there was never a time when july/aug weren't hell! Has there ever been a cool August in Utah?

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    1. Jim SJuly 3, 2024 at 12:59 PM

      Yes, these months are hot, but they are getting hotter. Five year running-mean average temperatures for these two months are now running more than 2F higher than they did for most of the 20th century.

      https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/42/tavg/2/8/1895-2024?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000&filter=true&filterType=running-mean

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    2. Jim SJuly 3, 2024 at 1:10 PM

      Further, the last July-Aug with a statewide average temperature below the 20th century mean for those two months was in 2004, and that was only 0.1F below the 20th centrury mean (ditto for 1999).

      So, for all intents and purposes, we really havnen't had a "cool" July-August this century.

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  2. AnonymousJuly 3, 2024 at 8:32 PM

    Question for you - is it just me, or do diurnal ranges seem a bit wider this summer than in previous years? It seems like the nights are mostly staying cool even when the days are hot, which I don't remember being the case last summer (lots of 70+ lows). I checked the June data, and the average high for the month was farther above average than the average low, which seems to support my impression, but not by much. Curious to hear your thoughts. Even if I'm just imagining it, I'm grateful for it.

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    1. Jim SJuly 5, 2024 at 8:40 AM

      June average daily temperature range: 25.9F
      30-year average: 25.1F

      So a bit more of a range than average.

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  3. AnonymousJuly 4, 2024 at 1:41 PM

    It’s always astonished me that a place that can get so much snow in the winter can be so blisteringly hot in the summer.

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  4. AnonymousJuly 5, 2024 at 9:37 AM

    Did a trail run at Alta yesterday and only had to cross a few small snowfields at the lower end of the Ballroom. On the Fourth of July in 1993 and 1995, the entire mountain was snow covered, including under the tow between the Albion and Wildcat base. I skied top to bottom both years. There were even some snow flurries hiking up in 1993. Different time, different climate.

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