Will Snow Miser Bring Us the Goods This Week?

If you've never seen the Rankin Bass Christmas Special A Year Without a Santa Claus do so soon as the epic battle between the Snow Miser and Heat Miser is not to be missed.  

I thought of the Snow Miser today as I glanced over the model runs and thought he could bring the goods this week.  Cue music.

I know it's not Christmas time but so what.  We are looking at the potential for a major, all elevations snowstorm late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with potential for things to linger into Wednesday, especially in the mountains.

Things look to really get going late Tuesday.  Below is the GFS forecast for 0000 UTC 22 Feb (5 PM MST Tuesday) with a cold front and associated precipitation draped across northern Utah.  

The beauty of this cold front is that as the upper-level trough digs along the Pacific coast, an intermountain cyclone forms along it, which slows its progress and causes it to pivot over northern Utah.  Below is the GFS forecast for 0600 UTC 22 February (11 PM MST Tuesday), showing the slow progress.  

The basic scenario is similar in the Euro, but the cyclone is a bit weaker and the frontal precipitation a bit farther south.  Under such a scenario, the Salt Lake Valley might miss out on the biggest accumulations.  They would go south to Provo, although the Salt Lake Valley would still get some.  

In an ideal world, the frontal precipitation band would stall over the Salt Lake Valley and we would get prolonged snowfall Tuesday night.  Then we continue to get some snow on Wednesday.  

Much will depend on the gory details, but the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday Afternoon through Late Wednesday Night for the Northern Wasatch Front, Salt Lake Valley, Utah Valley, and other lowland regions.  

Source: NWS, captured 4 PM MST 19 February 2023

A watch means that there is the risk of hazardous winter weather, but its occurrence, location, or timing is still uncertain.  

This also looks like a powder producer for the mountains.  I lack the time this afternoon to take a close look and it is a complex system, but the GFS is generating about 2.5" of water and 35" of snow for Alta from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.  That would be a major 24-hour event if it were to verify.  All but two members of the downscaled SREF are producing at least 18" of snow, although for some members this includes a  few inches during the day tomorrow when we get a brush by.  

That said, these are major numbers being output by the downscaled SREF.  Sometimes the downscaling is a bit overdone during frontal periods, but I would expect a major dump starting on Tuesday afternoon.  We'll take a closer look at details as the storm approaches.  

My "wishcast" is that Snow Miser brings us the goods and we get a huge dump at all elevations.  The sun is getting higher and the sky and it is good to be greedy as we head into late February.