A Hot and Dry July – September

 This year's three-month July-September period is going to go down as one of the hottest and driest on record.

For the period from July 1 through September 26, 2020 is tied with 2017 for the 2nd warmest on record with an average temperature of 78.7˚F, behind only 2013 (80.1˚F). 

Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers

With four days left, I haven't done the calculus to see where we're likely to end up, but it will be up there, although it won't be a record (we have no chance of getting 2013, which finished the full July to September period with an average temperature of 79.2˚F).

The odds of precipitation through the end of the month, however, are vanishingly small, so the 0.55" we've received since July 1 is going to be the tally.  That rates as the 8th driest such period on record.  

Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers

The driest July to September was in 1879 with only 0.14 inches.

Looking regionally, the we see that nearly the entire southwest has been below average.  California averages paltry amounts from July to September anyway, but Arizona and Utah are well below average.  We've had a "nonsoon" this year instead of a monsoon.    

We did a leaf-peeping drive this morning.  The best we saw was on the Alpine Loop highway.  As reported by many, the aspens in Pine Canyon, Guardsman Pass, and Big Cottonwood are decimated.  It looks like mid October rather than late September.  The aspens in Big Cottonwood looked awful even during the summer.  I leave it to the ecologists to explain if this is a result of the June cold snap and/or the drought.  

It looks dry for the foreseeable future, which for me means about a week.  If you must ask, the Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlooks has the dice heavily loaded for above average temperatures and below average precipitation. 

I usually like a warm, dry late September and October.  Above average this time of year is comfortable and no precipitation means no snow, which is good from the standpoint that early snow, unless it comes big, typically turns into rotten snow with persistent weak layer issues as we head into winter.  However, I'm feeling moisture starved right now and would enjoy a good multi-hour soaker.