Sunday, January 1, 2012

A Bleak Start to the New Year

Mother Nature has it in for us this year.  Not only is a thin, weak snowpack keeping many people out of the backcountry, but she has started to station large bull moose at some trailheads too.  I saw this beast at the bottom of Mineral Fork this morning.


There's no way to sneak up the trail with a moose like that laying in wait.  He was one of the largest I've seen in the Wasatch.

Back to weather.  Will 2012 usher in improved prospects for snow?  Not this week.  The latest forecast from the GFS shows a couple of weak systems coming through over the next several days, but right now, they look mainly dry.  Further, the 6–10 day precipitation outlook issued today by the Climate Prediction Center is depressing.

Source: NOAA/NWS/CPC
The 6–10 temperature outlook is incredible.  Where is winter?  Not in the contiguous United States.

Source: NOAA/NWS/CPC 
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3 comments:

  1. AnonymousJanuary 1, 2012 at 10:25 PM

    Hi Jim -
    I just had a question regarding the differences in the 6-10 day precipitation outlook and the 1-month precipitation outlook. The 1-month outlook puts Utah's January 2012 in the "slightly above average" range (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif) but the 6-10 day outlook does not. Can you help explain what is this difference due to? Thanks! (Carolyn)

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  2. ChristyJanuary 2, 2012 at 2:35 PM

    Saw that moose again today on the way down canyon!

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  3. Jim SJanuary 2, 2012 at 4:02 PM

    Carolyn - the 1-month outlook you cite above was made on 15 December. That means it's not really a weather forecast, but more of a climate forecast based on the presence of La Nina, the expected phase of the MJO, and various climate spices. The 6-10 day outlook I noted was made on 1 January and is based primarily on computer model forecasts. I believe CPC issues the 6-10 day outlooks daily, but the monthly outlooks once or twice a month.

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