tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post119129790520343146..comments2024-03-27T15:09:59.039-06:00Comments on Wasatch Weather Weenies: Central Wasatch Get No Love and Neither Should Icon-Based ForecastsJim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-59460934893946612015-11-06T20:58:12.307-07:002015-11-06T20:58:12.307-07:00I wouldnt say we got skunked, I think we are close...I wouldnt say we got skunked, I think we are close to a foot for the past few days showers. Especially above 9,500 ft. Congrats on 20 years. Keep up the good work! Love your blog. Joey Campshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06387824694723096993noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-5064563515062547592015-11-05T17:55:30.401-07:002015-11-05T17:55:30.401-07:00I think that with a high amplitude trough, the odd...I think that with a high amplitude trough, the odds of this happening are a lot greater. The models tend to underestimate the more subtle types of splitting that leave us mostly dry. With the lower amplitude types of troughs I usually have much greater confidence in it hitting us.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02814313368731066590noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-6098797736560103842015-11-05T08:03:12.822-07:002015-11-05T08:03:12.822-07:00Unfortunately, I don't have a good blog post o...Unfortunately, I don't have a good blog post on it. We talk about it at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3274.1. <br /><br />The GBCZ is not always bad for precipitation in the Wasatch. It is simply a key feature involved in cyclogenesis over the Great Basin during southwesterly large-scale flow. Much depends on the details of how the system evolves. <br /><br />JimJim Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-27153375093118480632015-11-05T07:42:45.058-07:002015-11-05T07:42:45.058-07:00Hi Jim, it seems one of the "critical" s...Hi Jim, it seems one of the "critical" small scale details in breaking up this week's storm as it approached the Wasatch was the GBCZ. Can you explain how that works, or point to a link.<br /><br />Who knew?Peter Donnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-624022567068658612015-11-05T06:01:53.339-07:002015-11-05T06:01:53.339-07:00I could see Timp nearly all day yesterday with not...I could see Timp nearly all day yesterday with nothing but a dusting on the highest peaks. A disappointment for sure. One of these times we're bound to have luck with a storm. adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17298255167047512171noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-22404175960047244482015-11-04T22:58:29.340-07:002015-11-04T22:58:29.340-07:00I was in Ophir at 1:00 today. Six inches on picnic...I was in Ophir at 1:00 today. Six inches on picnic benches in town, 8 in up the canyon a bit. It was still snowing at a decent clip at 2:00 when I left. The town sits at 6500 ft, where I turned around further up canyon, maybe 6800 ft.CJBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12195618104440625258noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-16891672612461710652015-11-04T19:03:27.302-07:002015-11-04T19:03:27.302-07:00Too bad the lake effect band hitting the northern ...Too bad the lake effect band hitting the northern Oquirrhs right now doesn't want to say hi to the Wasatch :(Kurthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08262008007311658043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-37940575015338223802015-11-04T16:55:11.279-07:002015-11-04T16:55:11.279-07:00Would love to see people that have meteorologist i...Would love to see people that have meteorologist in their job profile hold an actual degree in Meteorology. How does a B.A. in music help with forecasting? You are a fine weather broadcaster.Scot Chipmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17650190017905455606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-35821156921433928292015-11-04T13:00:39.401-07:002015-11-04T13:00:39.401-07:00Grant -
The
private sector has helped to revoluti...Grant -<br />The<br /> private sector has helped to revolutionize weather forecasting in many ways. Although I know you are limited by the system that you have, is having to pick and present one number for a 7-day forecast really the best we can do? Tell your software providers to figure out a way to provide some level of forecast uncertainty. I have seen in other countries, for example, forecasts that include ranges, etc....<br /><br />Then again, we are one of only three countries in the world that have not adopted metric...<br /><br />JimJim Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-36702406811677423752015-11-04T11:37:52.554-07:002015-11-04T11:37:52.554-07:00I'm a broadcast met-- and I totally agree! It...I'm a broadcast met-- and I totally agree! It is frustrating to make a forecast for day 6 and 7 especially... we know about the uncertainty... but somehow we have to place some kind of number and icon in the slot... sometimes would love to go back to 5 day cast. At KSL, we try to keep it conservative with these days. Even if models scream a storm, we tend to just put in a dark cloud. Then verbally, we can explain the possibility. -G WeymanAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10039424066719130591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-46901112847780441692015-11-04T10:57:58.486-07:002015-11-04T10:57:58.486-07:00Oh dude, your such a pessimist. We're due!Oh dude, your such a pessimist. We're due!<br /><br />l. dunnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-19920875096324031972015-11-04T09:45:52.944-07:002015-11-04T09:45:52.944-07:00Blogs from actual meteorologists are why I dont wa...Blogs from actual meteorologists are why I dont watch the news anymore, other then one or two guys I'm not sure any of the news guys have an actual meteorology background. What I learned this week, Anomalies are always interesting but not always fun. <br /><br />DevenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-15702407263888475122015-11-04T09:39:31.300-07:002015-11-04T09:39:31.300-07:00Perhaps, but it should be "communicating the ...Perhaps, but it should be "communicating the range of those outcomes..." The computer allows you to make more mistakes faster than any inventions except handguns and tequila. Will correct this.Jim Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-9794758279529341832015-11-04T09:37:09.251-07:002015-11-04T09:37:09.251-07:00"What I am saying is that we know right now t..."What I am saying is that we know right now that there is a large range of possible outcomes and my profession can do a better job forecasting and communicating that range of those outcomes and their probabilities. "<br /><br />Summed up perfectly. Love the posts that discuss probability and predictions vs outcomes. Thank you!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-24354559153491716762015-11-04T09:03:11.925-07:002015-11-04T09:03:11.925-07:00Yup, icons conceal more than they reveal. They'...Yup, icons conceal more than they reveal. They're convenient for iphones, and so it's bandwidth that ultimately determines the quality of information accessible to most people. Weather services need to do a better job. ceejayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16227622957362761023noreply@blogger.com