Astounding Forecasts for March

The models are putting out some remarkable height and temperature forecasts for Utah and the southwest US for March.  I'm even a little late getting to the party given that the NWS issued a statement at 2 PM MDT on March 12th for potentially record-breaking temperatures by the middle of next week. 

The synoptic setup is the development of a high-amplitude upper-level ridge over the southwest.  As an example, below is the ECMWF HRES foreacast valid 0000 UTC 20 March (6 PM MDT Thursday) with 500-mb heights above 5940 meters over Arizona and 700-mb temperatures of 10°C over Salt Lake City. 

For the southwest, these are exceptionally high 700-mb temperatures.  The highest March 700-mb temperature every recorded in an upper-air sounding over northern Utah is 8.0°C.  We may be above that for a few days later next week and into the weekend.  The 700-mb temperatures over southern Utah and the desert southwest are also at record levels.  

The seasonal snowpack in the southwest is already on life support.  As of March 12, watersheds in southern Utah, southern Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico were at or below 50% of median snowpack for the date.  Along the Mogollon Rim, they were below 10%.  

For northern Utah, another perspective is provided by the wet-bulb 0.5°C plumes for Alta-Collins in the lower left of the plot below.  Dramatic warming occurs early next week and in most of the ensemble members this level is above the elevation of the Alta-Collins site (9600 feet) for several days thereafter.  

I saw some online claims of a "miracle March" in Utah because we got some snow to start the month. In reality, there was no miracle.  We got some snow, but not an unusual amount for what we used to call "winter" and now we are going to see the heat big time with a late March sun.  Its not May, but the sun angle is high enough now to do significant damage.  

The mountain snowpack, spring runoff, and Great Salt Lake do not care about hope or wishful thinking.