Signs of the Times

These are minor issues compared to what many are dealing with, but yesterday I received two e-mails that are reflective of the times. 

In the first, I was notified that a proposal I submitted to a NOAA Weather Program Office competition was recommended for funding.  Normally this is good news, but this year, that news was accompanied with the caveat that they probably won't be able to find funding.  

That would be a shame because we were planning on using deep learning to further advance the the techniques approaches we've been developing to improve snow density and snow amount forecasting.  Many of the products on weather.utah.edu and features on this blog use experimental versions of these techniques.  Without support, this line of research will probably whither in the coming months as our current grant winds down (and this assumes that funding is not frozen). 

In the second, I was notified that I was eligible for the Voluntary Special Retirement Program at the University of Utah. You know you are getting old when you get one of these.   

The U has been tight lipped about their plans to address the HB 265 Strategic Reinvestment Plan.  They recently posted an online news article on @THEU that basically said little other than they presented a draft of phase one of the reinvestment plan to the Utah System of Higher Education (USHE).  Presumably this special retirement program is a small part of that.  

Based on that article, I suspect we will learn more in the near future, certainly no later than June 6 when plans are to be presented to the Utah Board of Education.  

Death of a Snowpack

A look at the latest snowpack water equivalent numbers from Utah SNOTEL stations shows that most are now snow free.

Source: NRCS

Don't be fooled by the red dot in southwest Utah.  That's the Midway Valley SNOTEL and it hit zero on May 15.  The red fill is spurious.  There are only two other sites in Utah with measurable snow, Big Flat (orange) at 10,320 ft in the Tushar Mountains, and Farnsworth Lake (green) at 9,620 ft in the mountains east of Richfield.  

The northern Utah snowpack is also non-existent at most SNOTELs [and some of the red dots above are also spurious and there's no snow at the site (e.g., Ben Lomond Peak, Lookout Peak, Brighton)].  Those with measurable snow are at high elevations and only one, USU Doc Daniel (yes, that's the name) is over 70% of median (and it's at 71%).  

I actually don't like using the percentage of median this time of year.  Instead, I look to look at how many days ahead of median the melt out is. If we look at Snowbird, for example, we see that the current snowpack water equivalent (black line) is 12.1 inches.  The median snowpack (green line) reaches that on June 3rd, so the melt out at this site is about a week ahead of median. 

Source: NRCS

The Snowbird site seemed to have a lot of problems earlier this winter, so perhaps there's a bit more uncertainty in that estimate, but a quick eyeball suggests meltout about 3-10 days ahead of median at many northern Utah sites.  

For the snow that remains, it's a bloodbath with near ideal conditions for melt in Utah through the weekend with a high-amplitude ridge in place, above average temperatures, long days, and a high-angle sun.  Most of the energy to melt snow in northern Utah comes from the sun and there's going to be a lot of incoming solar radiation the next several days.  

In some areas, the snow surface has also been darkened by dust.  The Alta High Rustler web cam shows a snowpack that is quite "snirty". 

A dusty snowpack absorbs more solar energy than a white one, so snowmelt at places like Alta is accelerated.  

In the past 5 days, the snow depth at Alta Collins decreased from 92 to 76 inches, an average of 3.2 inches per day.  At that rate, we'll be down to about 60 inches by June 1.  My guess is we'll be a bit lower than that given the pattern.  

Withering Summer Skiing

In March, Whistler Blackcomb announced that they would be cancelling summer ski camps indefinitely.  Yesterday, Powder Magazine reported that this was due to declining summer conditions on the Horstman Glacier.

Source: https://www.powder.com/news/whistler-blackcomb-summer-skiing-cancelled

Summer skiing is in decline worldwide.  I investigated this for my book, Secrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth.  In 1985 there were 32 operating glacier-skiing resorts in the Alps.  Today there are only a few that operate for a significant part of the summer (Passo Stelvio, Saas Fe, Kitzsteinhorn, Mölltal, Les 2 Alpes, Ignes, Val d'Isere, Cervina, Hintertux, Zermatt).  

Hintertux in Austria is the only ski area in the world still operating year round.  Zermatt used to, but gave up the past two years (maybe they will survive this year).  Hintertux moves Heaven and Earth to keep their skiing going through the summer.  

Source: Steenburgh (2023)

A couple of the summer skiing resorts above could probably operate year round if they wanted to.  Nevertheless, due to increasing temperatures and shrinking snowfields and glaciers, the future of summer skiing is not bright.  

Declines in Awards from the National Science Foundation

Those of us who work at Universities and other scientific organizations are well aware of the cuts, layoffs, and damage affecting the American science enterprise under the Trump Administration.  An article published today in the New York Times describes what is happening specifically at the National Science Foundation (NSF), which for 75 years has supported research and education in science and engineering.  

In addition to the termination or freezing of grants related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), social justice, and misinformation/disinformation, funding awarded from January 1 to May 21st of this year by the NSF declined 50% from the 2015–2024 average. The declines were largest in the education directorate, followed by math, physics, and chemistry; engineering; and biology. 

Technically, these are declines in awards given.  The available funds could be doled out later in the fiscal year.  However, even if funds are eventually doled out, these delays cause declines in research assistantships for graduate students, layoffs, and disruptions in lab operations and research endeavors.  The delays are probably most problematic for new/young faculty members who represent the future of science and engineering in the United States.  

NSFs Division of Graduate Education in the Education Directorate has awarded no funding so far from January 1 to May 21.  None.  The average in prior years was $21 million.  As a result, the number of graduate research assistantships awarded by the program, which go to some of our Nation's the most promising young scientists and engineers, has declined this fiscal year (which begins in October) from 2,000 to 1,000.

These are not changes in the name of efficiency or an effort to simply excise funding related to DEI.  They are damaging the seed corn for future science and engineering in the United States, especially the development of young scientists who are supported not only by the Division of Graduate Education but also grants provided by other NSF directorates, which frequently are dominated by support for graduate students (and in many cases undergraduate students too).    

Who Knew It Snowed So Much at Sundance?

I was pretty surprised to see this from the Salt Lake Tribune this morning.  I had to check the calendar to see if it was April Fools.  It was in their online article discussing Sundance's planned expansion.  

520" of snow and more than 100" of base is pretty darn good.  Alta clocked in with 538" and currently has a 95" base.  End of snowcover at the Timpanogos Divide SNOTEL at 8,180 feet, pretty close to the summit elevation of Sundance Ski Resort, was May 4.  

Who knew there was such a great microclimate on the south shoulder of Mt. Timpanogos.

Lol.

Perhaps this is a leftover from 2022/23 that somehow snuck into the online article.  

Mid May Powder?

Spring powder has been limited this season with April and early May coming in relatively dry, warm, and at times windy and dusty.  

In April, Alta recorded 53.5" of snow, but 37.5" of that was on the first three days of April.  Automated obs suggest about 10" on the 6th of May and we gotten perhaps 4" yesterday.  

So if you are still looking for a late-season powder fix, Sunday has some potential.  The models are hinting at a digging trough and front to be moving through Sunday morning.  The GFS, for example, puts the front right over nothern Utah at 1500 UTC 18 May (9 AM MDT Sunday).  

Some of the models then call for unstable northwesterly flow thereafter, although the moisture, wind direction, and instability do vary some.  

For Alta-Collins, the GFS puts out 0.94" of water and 9" of snow from Saturday evening through Sunday evening, most of which falls with the frontal passage Sunday morning.  

The median forecast from the Utah Snow Ensemble for that period is a bit more optimistic with 0.99" of water and 11.5" of snow.  A look at the distribution shows that most members (about 75%) are more than .75" water and 9" of snow.  

If this timing holds, there could be a bit of a battle between getting the underlying snow surface buried as the snow stacks up and the potential for sun to trash the snow should it appear or simply do damage through the clouds once the front goes through if the snow doesn't keep coming.  The 4" or so of snow we got yesterday may help a bit with the former.  The latter is a crap shoot currently and wintertime aspects that are often friendly to powder even in warm weather are now getting a good deal of solar radiation because the mid-day sun is so high in the sky.   

You can't catch a fish without a line in the water.  It's probably worth baiting the hook and being ready to cast your line for this one depending on how the forecast plays out.   

Dusty Days

The past to days were quite dusty thanks to strong south winds in advance of a slow moving cold front that finally moved into the Salt Lake Valley last night.  Yesterday was the worst of it with dust filling the Salt Lake Valley in the afternoon, creating and apocalyptic scene.  

Scene looking south over the Salt Lake Valley from the upper Avenues at 6 PM

Observations from the University of Utah over the past two days show persistent southerly flow on Sunday with peak gusts reaching 40-45 miles per hour.  Those winds died down Sunday night before strengthening Monday morning.  The strongest winds of the period occurred Monday with gusts > 35 mph common from about 1100 to 2100 MDT and a peak gust of 48 mph.  

Source: MesoWest

A look at MesoWest data shows many valley locations in central and western Utah had peak gusts more than 50 mph.  A few examples include Parowan (61), Curlew Junction (60), Stockton (60), Simpson Springs (58), Baccus/SR111 (58), and I-215 at I-80 (58). 

The exposed lake bed of the Great Salt Lake gets a lot of attention for dust, but widespread, prolonged events like this tend to be pre-frontal with dust sources to the south, southwest, and west.  GOES satellite imagery from yesterday afternoon shows many dust sources over western Utah.  With yellow arrows I've highlighted four.  The first two are the playa area near Fish Springs in western Utah.  Another is in the Skull Valley.  A lot of dust was produced in these areas, but did not affect the Salt Lake Valley yesterday (although dust from these areas could have come in with the cold front last night).

Source: CIRA

The fourth in the southern part of the image and appears to be the Wah Wah Valley Hardpan south of the Sevier Dry Lake Bed.  It's unclear if dust from this area reached the Salt Lake Valley yesterday or extended into environs to the east.

The sources for the Salt Lake Valley, however, appeared to be many in the areas that I've circled in blue.  There appear to be many emission hotspots in this area, without any one obvious in this visible satellite loop.  Just to the west of it though I've identified one clear hot spot that produced a plume that one can clearly trace into the western Salt Lake Valley.

That plume emerges from an area that is near SR-36 between Vernon and Eureka and just to the west of Boulter Peak.  This is an area that was burned during the Boulter 2024 fire.  My best guess is that the burn scar is the source of this plume (h/t to University of Utah Research Assistant Professor Derek Malia for pointing this out).  

Source: https://app.watchduty.org/

Burn scars have been important sources of dust for the valley in the past.  The Milford Flat Fire (2007) was the largest wildfire in Utah history and its scar was a prolific dust producer for many years.  Fortunately, the land surface there appears to have recovered and is more resistant to dust emissions today.  

Could Snow Storage Work in Utah?

It's that time of year when I wish we could save some of the snow from this season for next season.  There's a dense snowpack at upper elevations and wouldn't it be great if we could save just some of it for next year.

Some resorts in Europe have been doing that, piling up snow and covering it with white, insulated blankets or sawdust to save it until next season.  Levi in Finland is perhaps best known for doing this (see https://www.wired.com/story/ski-resorts-are-stockpiling-snow-to-get-through-warm-winters/).  Now Sun Peaks Resort has become the first resort in Canada to do it.

Per the video above, they invested $170,000 (presumably CDN) for geotextile blankets to preserve snow for next season to use it in late fall and early winter.  

I don't know enough about resort economics, snowmaking costs, or snow energy balance to evaluate whether or not this would work here, but I'm intrigued.  Beyond costs, one advantage of this approach is that the preserved snow would be available even if snowmaking conditions were unreliable, such as might occur during a warm fall.  

At issue is how well this would work at a lower latitude.  I am aware of the use of geotextiles in the Alps to preserve glaciers, but am unaware of tests at at our latitude.  One could imagine using terrain maps to evaluate the total incoming solar radiation during the warm season, storing the snow in areas that minimize the total incoming solar radiation due to favorable aspects and shading by the surrounding topography.  

At Alta, could you stockpile snow at the base of Ballroom or below the shoulder traverse to cover Main Street next season?  

Last Day of 100 at Alta?

At 1 PM MDT this afternoon, the total snow depth at Alta Collins dropped to 99", falling below 100" for the first time this melt season.  There are a couple of cold troughs coming next week so a recovery is not impossible, but given that we're losing about 3" a day right now and have a couple warm days ahead, the odds are such that today was probably the last with a 100" snow depth this season.  

Cover in Collins Gulch remains excellent.  The snow earlier this week buried the snirty snow surface in some areas, especially on high north, making for a bit of a white corn harvest at upper elevations.  

Photo: Erik Steenburgh

Photo: Erik Steenburgh

Although there was a shallow freeze overnight thanks to the radiative cooling of the snow surface, given the warmth (the overnight low at Collins was 43) and the high elevation sun, it didn't take long for things to soften up anywhere that was in the sun.  We were off the mountain at 11 and eating tacos in the shade at Lone Star shortly thereafter.  In other words, a great May ski day. 

NSF Cuts Shutter NSF Unidata

There's an organization you may have never heard of, but if you are a user of weather data and graphics on the web, they have almost certainly contributed to the cyberinfrastructure that made it possible.

Their name is NSF Unidata, or just "Unidata" for short.  

Unidata developed organically in the 1980s when Universities has a pressing need to access weather data in real time, but couldn't.  The Internet at the time was nascent and there was essentially no hardware and software systems capable of delivering, processing, and analyzing weather data.  In 1983, a workshop at the University of Wisconsin involving about 80 US atmospheric sciences programs coined the name "unidata" and recommended that it be developed to provide:

1. Access to current and archived weather data, including satellite imagery and forecasts.
2. Support interactive computer capabilities at universities.
3. Communications capabilities between universities, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and NASA.

These are things that we take for granted today, but would not have happened without Unidata.  Amongst the products they developed are the Local Data Manager (LDM) which acquires and shares data between providers and users like the National Weather Service, NASA, and universities; netCDF (Network Common Data Form) which is a file format for storing self-described, multidimensional scientific data; and metpy which is a collection of python tools for reading and processing weather data.  They have been transformative for the atmospheric and related sciences, with benefits not only for universities, but also the private and academic sectors and across the world.  

I have benefited and been actively involved with Unidata throughout my career, including volunteer service on their Users and Strategic Advisory (formerly Policy) Committees.  Last year I gave a short virtual talk on Unidata's history that provides some examples of the various ways that Unidata has benefited my career and the atmospheric and related sciences as a whole (apologies that the initial part of the talk is cutoff in the video below).

On 30 April, the National Science Foundation (NSF) froze funding for Unidata, with instructions to stop all funded actions until further notice.  Due to this freeze, most staff in the Unidata program center are being furloughed effective today.  The impacts on are fully summarized below.  

This is yet another example of the damage being done to the US scientific enterprise by the Trump Administration.  Unidata is an example of an organization that has widespread support from the University community because it develops and provides essential scientific services for research and education in the atmospheric and related sciences.  The radar feeds that you take for granted today on your smart phone were first developed by the Unidata CRAFT product.  The distribution of model forecasts that you can access today was first developed by the Unidata CONDUIT project.  And a lot of the graphics that you see on the web rely on Unidata MetPy and visualization software.

These disruptions of the scientific enterprise are pure insanity.  The halting of funding to Unidata will stymie scientific advancement, slow educational innovation, and limit classroom experiences.