tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61686207477920922402024-03-17T21:03:56.609-06:00Wasatch Weather WeeniesMountain Meteorology and Snow Snobbery Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comBlogger3635125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-51961640297459263032024-03-17T07:08:00.002-06:002024-03-17T07:08:22.223-06:00Sastrugi<p>Along with graupel, sastrugi is one of my favorite weather-related words and I saw plenty of it ski touring yesterday. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLGrZ1o4g2C1XxxHBT9rSt3z76oVZGFlzh8Tf4qW0ijGEoI3u0mTApgVZH1CCPXVpsiXeS1cxLebgOVjkhgO-NdROpiX7KKOoq3-bgmTFSeeg_WgpxoGttmcn-5dyCxVv49A47-PYoZN5F9dqd7rnLZbLqFk2qmZkRZMdA4Kv52wl-hhpYy_hgJdcOUoU/s2134/PXL_20240316_160017992.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1602" data-original-width="2134" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLGrZ1o4g2C1XxxHBT9rSt3z76oVZGFlzh8Tf4qW0ijGEoI3u0mTApgVZH1CCPXVpsiXeS1cxLebgOVjkhgO-NdROpiX7KKOoq3-bgmTFSeeg_WgpxoGttmcn-5dyCxVv49A47-PYoZN5F9dqd7rnLZbLqFk2qmZkRZMdA4Kv52wl-hhpYy_hgJdcOUoU/w640-h480/PXL_20240316_160017992.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Sastrugi is defined by <a href="https://avalanche.org/avalanche-encyclopedia/snowpack/snow-metamorphism/wind-effects/wind-erosion/sastrugi/" target="_blank">avalanche.org</a> as "heavily wind eroded snow with wavy textures." Sometimes it looks rough or pockety. In the photo below, it appears there is avalanche debris on this slope, but in reality it is all sastrugi. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjte-Akn6m3rwpFrHMx1D3cV9xJukHFtnH0QxkMT4eLzN1C2f3DyiUHAQavlH7-ALs3JMpztYoI6ju9QpMz3pCkkXqBl9OxWUbzpOuGncbDKjMHmG7v9zco59rbeXwPRD4gJG6phWq8TVmfkGpv4H6ygGoWxHQkINBF6Fk4VUsNfL4ItR4j09XBuBS_TME/s2134/PXL_20240316_161935858.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1602" data-original-width="2134" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjte-Akn6m3rwpFrHMx1D3cV9xJukHFtnH0QxkMT4eLzN1C2f3DyiUHAQavlH7-ALs3JMpztYoI6ju9QpMz3pCkkXqBl9OxWUbzpOuGncbDKjMHmG7v9zco59rbeXwPRD4gJG6phWq8TVmfkGpv4H6ygGoWxHQkINBF6Fk4VUsNfL4ItR4j09XBuBS_TME/w640-h480/PXL_20240316_161935858.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>In some areas, the sastrugi was dense wind board and generally supportive of a skier. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn7p9_LY2vxMKDYlANVjPwt36z0SvHh6ffeLgbobdnr0KtgcVfr7QcuNDhUnYpG1nSo8Th0lg_kdj6n_gW6I-YWgsUL68oJrUYe0ZtqegcfjQwoJqLZJCE_AjsUZrtV2FsyZ8mu3VbqcB5Y8e0zoW2rQBYod8HBrOyZw1tL9iDO6QBJi8sonz4GxqCgYg/s2134/PXL_20240316_155852491.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1602" data-original-width="2134" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn7p9_LY2vxMKDYlANVjPwt36z0SvHh6ffeLgbobdnr0KtgcVfr7QcuNDhUnYpG1nSo8Th0lg_kdj6n_gW6I-YWgsUL68oJrUYe0ZtqegcfjQwoJqLZJCE_AjsUZrtV2FsyZ8mu3VbqcB5Y8e0zoW2rQBYod8HBrOyZw1tL9iDO6QBJi8sonz4GxqCgYg/w640-h480/PXL_20240316_155852491.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>In others, it was actually somewhat soft and didn't ski to bad on the descent. Each turn was a mystery!</p><p>Although I like sastrugi as a word, it's not my favorite snow surface to ski. We can blame the sastrugi in this case on the multiday easterly wind event that has been affecting the Wasatch Range and Front since Thursday. Observations from Alta's Mt. Baldy show the winds veering (turning clockwise) from southwesterly just prior to 1200 MCT 12 March (Tuesday) to north by 0000 MDT 14 March and then locking in with easterly flow with gusts reaching over 50 mph on the 15th (Friday) when most of the damage was done. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6i1nck47zaUOFIH1q_3GqU564WwzJUeAW_1cGIMHFPCokpQlBq445IBa8ohX-M_ZQM0XH1qJ7hZUbFwb3YcsstieVkJrotKCp0VeLmD_T2vQHvXujuns0Ys_W59KtNN5hOmsLBRmp0RS_bKMdU1MJe7YS9VX02ea77o1v5IAhcSlSl171zIeiHQyX7kg/s935/amb.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="935" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6i1nck47zaUOFIH1q_3GqU564WwzJUeAW_1cGIMHFPCokpQlBq445IBa8ohX-M_ZQM0XH1qJ7hZUbFwb3YcsstieVkJrotKCp0VeLmD_T2vQHvXujuns0Ys_W59KtNN5hOmsLBRmp0RS_bKMdU1MJe7YS9VX02ea77o1v5IAhcSlSl171zIeiHQyX7kg/w640-h290/amb.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The large-scale setup for these winds was something that meteorologists call anticyclonic wave breaking in which a high-amplitude ridge develops in the high latitudes and leads to the formation of a closed low downstream and to the south. Below is the GFS analysis for 1200 UTC 15 March during the period of stronger easterly flow on Mt. Baldy. Note the ridge off the Pacific Northwest coast and the deep closed low centered along the CA-MX border, resulting in strong easterly 700-mb (crest-level) flow over the Wasatch. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU51CtIY0w5S_bJO70qR5L6NeYMVKO422PTFURD1fiGQWGA2nLD_VuuYo0aN2mCTyGlXw8PKdPs2KZvqK87hDiwVC73xdRPiWcbZnuPm4MxdXy5_Mp4Fxm8i6umJnGwLkW1QG27uh25KVihnq7k1Y0t3vUwRyoqpEHKpvPcJGIDozaZo2e_zJNgYpYePI/s1875/GFSSY_WS2024031512F000.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1249" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU51CtIY0w5S_bJO70qR5L6NeYMVKO422PTFURD1fiGQWGA2nLD_VuuYo0aN2mCTyGlXw8PKdPs2KZvqK87hDiwVC73xdRPiWcbZnuPm4MxdXy5_Mp4Fxm8i6umJnGwLkW1QG27uh25KVihnq7k1Y0t3vUwRyoqpEHKpvPcJGIDozaZo2e_zJNgYpYePI/w640-h426/GFSSY_WS2024031512F000.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>This is the same pattern that produced heavy snowfall along the Colorado Front Range. Basically, this is a complete reversal of the climatological westerlies. They get upslope and we get downslope. <div><br /></div><div>The pattern has been very persistent and this morning enhanced easterlies ares still being observed along the east bench of the Salt Lake Valley north of Holladay, although they are weaker than at the peak. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-37467319670802132002024-03-15T12:24:00.005-06:002024-03-15T12:24:57.272-06:00Austrian Misadventures, Part III<p>We will return to regularly scheduled programming soon, but I hope you will entertain one more additional post on our misadventures in Austria.</p><p><b><u>Ischgl</u></b></p><p>After skiing the Arlberg, we decided that we should get up early the next day and ski Ischgl. We had put off skiing long enough and Erik seemed to be skiing decent on the pistes with his arm in a sling. It's a bit of a haul to Ischgl on transit, so got up early, caught a 6:41 train to Landeck, and then a bus up the Paznaun valley to Ischgl, arriving at about 8:30 as the valley lifts opened. </p><p>Ischgl is located in the next vavlley south from St. Anton, just 12-km away as the crow flies. It receives a bit less snow since it is deeper in the inner Alps, but has two distinct advantages for skiing. It has more high elevation terrain and it has predominantly northwest aspects. Although not as spread out as St. Anton, it is a big resort, with a vertical drop of almost 5000 feet. It is also known for a hedonistic night life and served as "ground zero" for the COVID spread through Europe, but we weren't going there to party.</p><p>We caught the Pardatschgratbahn S3 cable car which brought us from 1377 to 2600 meters and then started working our way southward. In the southern portion of the resort you'll find the Gampenbahn six pack chairlift, which rises just over 3000 vertical feet and has the largest vertical rise of any six-passenger chairlift in the world. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaQUYtJ1mg0a4F-7ZRiwW79xqNqJVn-rIwrQmKQu_hdDmWZlbHQwTaJJ8ZCC8Y2_5A9DlGvBhr8eTBgVv3YNDhAUOaymjetJb3CayWU67sNd4kDlSVs66YsCnB-12SkcIbyrvroLm2avIr14Q-42PnMiSjDyyDe05KS8RY99Vw9Z706oQHGK2OY5SxWOI/s3450/PXL_20240308_085322193.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2587" data-original-width="3450" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaQUYtJ1mg0a4F-7ZRiwW79xqNqJVn-rIwrQmKQu_hdDmWZlbHQwTaJJ8ZCC8Y2_5A9DlGvBhr8eTBgVv3YNDhAUOaymjetJb3CayWU67sNd4kDlSVs66YsCnB-12SkcIbyrvroLm2avIr14Q-42PnMiSjDyyDe05KS8RY99Vw9Z706oQHGK2OY5SxWOI/w640-h480/PXL_20240308_085322193.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>It also services pretty good terrain, especially on its upper half. I no longer have the legs to do this, but I've often wondered how much vertical you could rack up on a chair like this. </p><p>To the south past the Gampenbahn, there is a lot of open terrain and only one lift, the Piz Val Gronda cable car.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTQQyPMcJd40222vrB2qWAim_oJBoO-idq0wE7Spy8HdAUV_chKJOdMlaMSy28Q6ODUvJcPn5V2jDnuaEV3j6khRH1JRPhjcUjqAPOA786AhSI2oF-vvgypM387_IEufvSVX5A_C5ORI0zG-zJC4x3CPrukFTAIx8_hj3Z7DQTAzyJrmyywhmH2cXycn4/s1725/PXL_20240308_092848783.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTQQyPMcJd40222vrB2qWAim_oJBoO-idq0wE7Spy8HdAUV_chKJOdMlaMSy28Q6ODUvJcPn5V2jDnuaEV3j6khRH1JRPhjcUjqAPOA786AhSI2oF-vvgypM387_IEufvSVX5A_C5ORI0zG-zJC4x3CPrukFTAIx8_hj3Z7DQTAzyJrmyywhmH2cXycn4/w640-h480/PXL_20240308_092848783.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The 150 passenger aerial tram services an enormous amount of freeride terrain, although some of it is flat or lower angle. There is only one piste. There is no restaurant at the top. I like to call it the cable car to nowhere. I have heard that it's construction was controversial since it covered terrain that was otherwise undeveloped or at least underdeveloped. </p><p>We then worked our way back to the north and eventually across the main Ischgl ridge. Crossing this ridge puts you in Switzerland and the Samnaun ski resort. The two are interconnected and served by one pass. Samnaun also provides almost 5000 vertical feet of relief. We lacked the time to ski to the bottom, but did ski the upper part of the resort and skied down into the Mülbach valley for lunch.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx7BLd9K1iCzANaOtWBvq9UbT36nHHYjit18gCIX33wvGdiee_DuauRvubUAbGfHOLnsXwG6Zt5VtLIZ5niT0-NcgwJ28Ej-YUQljnZG33Y4LZgNZ1HxvPiio-BhN6TdCcr2lLcsp22sILw4JnOKT57SFy304YjTJ70hOfFDL2zVcQAK2mAIfjkfsvWgM/s1725/PXL_20240308_102721058.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx7BLd9K1iCzANaOtWBvq9UbT36nHHYjit18gCIX33wvGdiee_DuauRvubUAbGfHOLnsXwG6Zt5VtLIZ5niT0-NcgwJ28Ej-YUQljnZG33Y4LZgNZ1HxvPiio-BhN6TdCcr2lLcsp22sILw4JnOKT57SFy304YjTJ70hOfFDL2zVcQAK2mAIfjkfsvWgM/w640-h480/PXL_20240308_102721058.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>We weren't disappointed. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFlU8si7AqDYB1g35THrh8s6deaPs2Gk1nO7-Wlqtt5WJD3CmhRXS_B3B_hzJKqPrzR_Es9auD431RCazV29HUQ1F5Al_uXR5q3nYvHdDY8mAEDSWQBcCxBF6VcWrHV0RhClI4rDDyHz4gtNx4ATIFRHQyHpO7qR02us7QToYyfg30wcmn1_F31vdLVV8/s1294/PXL_20240308_104808657.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="970" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFlU8si7AqDYB1g35THrh8s6deaPs2Gk1nO7-Wlqtt5WJD3CmhRXS_B3B_hzJKqPrzR_Es9auD431RCazV29HUQ1F5Al_uXR5q3nYvHdDY8mAEDSWQBcCxBF6VcWrHV0RhClI4rDDyHz4gtNx4ATIFRHQyHpO7qR02us7QToYyfg30wcmn1_F31vdLVV8/w480-h640/PXL_20240308_104808657.jpg" width="480" /></a></div><div><br /></div>One rarely is disappointed when it comes to food in the Alps. <br /><p>After skiing back over the Ischgl, we spent a little time skiing under the Pardatschgratbahn S3 cable car. I have skied at Ischgl three times, and each time, the #4 piste offered up uncrowded cruising. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiybuLP_3rh-H2F-E2jIsI6Egi71QUBO2YE83YDPCpxY-aVOiRYp-Q6F0o8vp2kOCqyxOD1YGm-w7yLIkyxof_j5959XzWNe9OhJDPp-ORSdEm3nb_QNrLbxZztzKQdjzx1toKUoNidG5aJeRuHRRKkrnFAxSjVhMd2ImNsEHY4HT_0N-xXI4mEiAb8gWg/s1725/PXL_20240308_123101553.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiybuLP_3rh-H2F-E2jIsI6Egi71QUBO2YE83YDPCpxY-aVOiRYp-Q6F0o8vp2kOCqyxOD1YGm-w7yLIkyxof_j5959XzWNe9OhJDPp-ORSdEm3nb_QNrLbxZztzKQdjzx1toKUoNidG5aJeRuHRRKkrnFAxSjVhMd2ImNsEHY4HT_0N-xXI4mEiAb8gWg/w640-h480/PXL_20240308_123101553.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>We descended down to Ischgl and walked about a half a kilometer to the first bus stop before town. This is a good rule to follow if you want a seat on busy days. </p><p><b><u>Artzler Alm</u></b></p><p>After skiing Ischgl, we had only one day left in Innsbruck. We decided not to push our luck with more skiing. We also needed to pack, which was not a trivial matter given that we had brought touring and alpine gear. </p><p>We decided to take advantage of the mild valley weather and go for a hike to Artzler Alm, a lower elevation mountain hut just north of Innsbruck. It was their first day open for the season and we were amongst their first customers. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB67nTICU4J6k_65pxPDh0PvhVecPA1rz22zA2eeWvu2_yKvpI9d-ta6zsc6C2tf_i2kHndwX4EY4YMPxUm_ncH6_QdZjKdsexuSwyEzttyVlT7-SfhsEs9P3Mz4zhn24gqLG1zEmwcx14BL954xxtF2EetI7OtOJb8pMRnyBX-4t6G9I96tscrr0ofHY/s1725/PXL_20240309_095529297.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB67nTICU4J6k_65pxPDh0PvhVecPA1rz22zA2eeWvu2_yKvpI9d-ta6zsc6C2tf_i2kHndwX4EY4YMPxUm_ncH6_QdZjKdsexuSwyEzttyVlT7-SfhsEs9P3Mz4zhn24gqLG1zEmwcx14BL954xxtF2EetI7OtOJb8pMRnyBX-4t6G9I96tscrr0ofHY/w640-h480/PXL_20240309_095529297.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>I'm a big fan of hiking to these huts where I like to enjoy a johannisbeere gespritzt (sparking water flavored with black currants), and either lunch, cake, or strudel. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Xj73TbYIAI57NCdW1f2m-5lAwQgB5vUc_vOKAvyxq7gcDOQy0dUIyAW0s_xwovuZEosK0Y_kNqqMKBMzYS69cLmyE_GHfocJYFhqRJvq6X1eQiZiMy9DIeIQ1Koh8ihoe1xyb80Joo7uUmQUd2DfSs96PxZiTmYyus88u1U9DSJXFbPa0gsXr43amYg/s1725/PXL_20240309_103059889.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Xj73TbYIAI57NCdW1f2m-5lAwQgB5vUc_vOKAvyxq7gcDOQy0dUIyAW0s_xwovuZEosK0Y_kNqqMKBMzYS69cLmyE_GHfocJYFhqRJvq6X1eQiZiMy9DIeIQ1Koh8ihoe1xyb80Joo7uUmQUd2DfSs96PxZiTmYyus88u1U9DSJXFbPa0gsXr43amYg/w640-h480/PXL_20240309_103059889.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><p>And the views are very enjoyable. Note the structural defenses for avalanches on the left in the photo. This is near the bottom of a long-running path that has penetrated into the upper reaches of residential areas near Innsbruck.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfCDNYsiV3vLWpdwRsj5fjG9RZE9sgyRoEHna9OoyV4xvvY4Qh0rAEmKQKa4R6Eksn5ZXa6_ho_pVtJJAfeGb_JZ5xqxYGQVmsO8Io_1kmu34CCxYZjWCSBMpPBo_1wZG98jYwB7AwXFbjqOy4Z9GhaEuGdvDwSHHWIp7VlWQ37jGg9EHTlmeklKfRHCE/s1925/PXL_20240309_095736848-PANO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="1925" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfCDNYsiV3vLWpdwRsj5fjG9RZE9sgyRoEHna9OoyV4xvvY4Qh0rAEmKQKa4R6Eksn5ZXa6_ho_pVtJJAfeGb_JZ5xqxYGQVmsO8Io_1kmu34CCxYZjWCSBMpPBo_1wZG98jYwB7AwXFbjqOy4Z9GhaEuGdvDwSHHWIp7VlWQ37jGg9EHTlmeklKfRHCE/w640-h204/PXL_20240309_095736848-PANO.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>If you ever visit Innsbruck, consider a hike to one of the great mountain huts above town. At lower elevations, you'll find Umbrugler Alm, Artzler Alm, and Rumer Alm. Higher up Bodenstein Alm and Höttenger Alm. None of these will disappoint. You can do some nice loops if you hook up with the Seegrube cable car. </p><p><b><u>Munich</u></b></p><p>Our trip concluded the next day with pigs knuckle in Munich.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-mdOTl4aezCqGjhegqiLW2rK9TL5yyYhSOSEMsulqvMLKByMZ9uaXrUPCKLITPvyF3zVe0N4SEpY-u8zWjYomc41dlkMHml786lHJs9PhBtkvoJVcnbZRHv0cA0kJUv8ErCoA_yOsaIziJLM549_dFsbKUx-c7pmcbhTxm4qNjj28FGN5ktA2SIKB-bE/s1294/PXL_20240310_162744263.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="970" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-mdOTl4aezCqGjhegqiLW2rK9TL5yyYhSOSEMsulqvMLKByMZ9uaXrUPCKLITPvyF3zVe0N4SEpY-u8zWjYomc41dlkMHml786lHJs9PhBtkvoJVcnbZRHv0cA0kJUv8ErCoA_yOsaIziJLM549_dFsbKUx-c7pmcbhTxm4qNjj28FGN5ktA2SIKB-bE/w480-h640/PXL_20240310_162744263.jpg" width="480" /></a></div></div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-91978003149663003952024-03-13T13:37:00.004-06:002024-03-13T13:40:38.923-06:00Austrian Misadventures, Part II<p>Previously on Wasatch Weather Weenies, the ski plans of my son and I in Austria were marred by a dislocated shoulder and we began to travel around Tyrol and environs using Innsbruck as a base. </p><p>After going to Sölden (see <a href="https://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2024/03/austrian-misadventures-part-i.html">Austrian Misadventures, Part I</a>) where I was able to do some skiing, the weather deteriorated and we elected to shift back to more traditional sightseeing for a couple of days.</p><p><b><u>Salzburg and Innsbruck</u></b></p><p>My son had never been to Salzburg, so we grabbed an early morning train, consumed pastries on the way, and went for a visit. On one of the OBB railjet trains, that reach speeds of up to about 145 miles per hour, it's less than a 2 hour trip (one doesn't go that fast the whole way, but it's nice to fly along in sections). Many people who visit Salzburg do the Sound of Music tour. I have been to Salzburg several times and am proud to say that I've yet to do it. Instead, we visited the Hohensalzburg Fortress, a medieval monster that sits on a hill above town. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGZP-44fxeakWNED0YoqKRIfxZt4bRWJwdqj3r8bN4fGhVeRnYJ9L0-gY92gcjd3PviEBYohbyg4mpZt7RQY-6qagr7VS6PJxpHrCn50FGLaTAdb1Ts_kyRCL1RCQLcE2nVRvYjeoeW1DhQXNE7BYj7g7OOWTIMNwALx5HyIfn8I6LeQ92ZFzu98fI1Lw/s1725/PXL_20240305_134814696.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGZP-44fxeakWNED0YoqKRIfxZt4bRWJwdqj3r8bN4fGhVeRnYJ9L0-gY92gcjd3PviEBYohbyg4mpZt7RQY-6qagr7VS6PJxpHrCn50FGLaTAdb1Ts_kyRCL1RCQLcE2nVRvYjeoeW1DhQXNE7BYj7g7OOWTIMNwALx5HyIfn8I6LeQ92ZFzu98fI1Lw/w640-h480/PXL_20240305_134814696.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Construction on the fortress began in 1077 with various additions over the years. It must have been imposing back in the day (it still is) and quite a seat of power. We enjoyed a bit of time walking through town and visiting a few other sights like the Mirabell Palace gardens, which were just starting to wake up from their winter slumber.</p><p>After four days with a good deal of travel, we then spent a day in Innsbruck. I attended a seminar in the Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences and we had dinner with several friends from the Department. </p><p>This was also the day when Erik said that he wanted to go skiing, even if it was in a sling and sticking to pistes. </p><p>I confess I had some trepidation about Erik skiing. I didn't want to see him fall on that shoulder again. On the other hand, it costs almost as much to buy a pedestrian pass to ride a cable car once as it does to buy a lift ticket. Why not ski conservatively and make a day of it? </p><p><b><u>Ski Arlberg</u></b></p><p>The next morning we traveled to St. Anton to give Erik the experience of village to village skiing in the Alps. St. Anton is part of the largest interconnected ski area in Austria, known as Ski Arlberg or simply The Arlberg. The Arlberg is one of the snowier locations in the Alps and it is possible to ski, without using anything but lifts, through several villages including St. Anton, St. Christoph, Stuben, Zürs, Lech, Warth, and Schröcken, which are located in the Stanzer, Klöster, Lech, and Krumbach Valleys. </p><p>Ski Arlberg is also one of the busiest ski areas in the Alps, so this is industrial-scale skiing on everything from cable cars to t-bars. In some areas, a small number of pistes (sometimes one) are serviced by one or more high-capacity lifts, and on-piste skier density is terrifyingly high. This added to my trepidation.</p><p>To get to St. Anton, we took the train from Innsbruck. You are there in about an hour and 10 minutes. The train station sits right on the edge of the village, about a five minute walk from the lifts (photo below actually from our departure that afternoon). Talk about convenience!</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEu_bH4NKqGjohAF3p8LCICXBK6O0_i6BrOwr2nWVmWk6q7Jo8BPNmR8WQAKG6HheyPJ0PkhedWBuKg5YbBUggLLqyLplKFQ1DajQJ1Ns-usJCkCcoj5oSq3_EhR47z_M8DH229LkeFm15QfFzf2VFfM2IH0_X0GuRzrKl56E1Sw5EzF_KMlC3YZB0hqQ/s1725/PXL_20240307_155641072.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEu_bH4NKqGjohAF3p8LCICXBK6O0_i6BrOwr2nWVmWk6q7Jo8BPNmR8WQAKG6HheyPJ0PkhedWBuKg5YbBUggLLqyLplKFQ1DajQJ1Ns-usJCkCcoj5oSq3_EhR47z_M8DH229LkeFm15QfFzf2VFfM2IH0_X0GuRzrKl56E1Sw5EzF_KMlC3YZB0hqQ/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_155641072.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>For our first run, we took an easy run from the top of the Galzigbahn cable car down to the village of St. Christoph on the Arlberg pass. The trail wasn't crowded, so this was a good situation for Erik to get used to the sling and one-pole skiing. Clouds were still lingering over the Arlberg pass, but blue skies prevailed to the west where we were heading. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga4Amz3j8fKuoh-1zaEgIfvKp-oPQgy0mAt6DPK3QCSJD5_8vuh9v9Z5PB1NlwDWoNWYsOtJdRkinw121oTQ8wKTf2q8akrVj5xaZBOkEpwB4JFOs6pGQoJ3n7_uORKY4OJOBcDT871OSGhXEQdw-B_KSCsrpgA1KpNwadoOvUbYMNxMgDf1I3EV8dKdg/s1725/PXL_20240307_083939452.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga4Amz3j8fKuoh-1zaEgIfvKp-oPQgy0mAt6DPK3QCSJD5_8vuh9v9Z5PB1NlwDWoNWYsOtJdRkinw121oTQ8wKTf2q8akrVj5xaZBOkEpwB4JFOs6pGQoJ3n7_uORKY4OJOBcDT871OSGhXEQdw-B_KSCsrpgA1KpNwadoOvUbYMNxMgDf1I3EV8dKdg/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_083939452.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>After riding two chairlifts, we then had to do one of the most terrifying descents of the day from the Ulmer Hütte down the one groomed piste in the Valfagehrbach valley to the Flexenbahn cable car near Stuben. It's a beautiful descent. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIYnxOOwaFNWi_hpArMzhALIpszXNVNWz4xt_xSOy64buwxERnv0UpiHFbH3YE3N3USV9N0tRdqpR7z83H6-SWssQjALh8STUQ7XabDYQ5_l7DWHq-5QrdnRMoMYOgHTszIw1OllU0udIdwFuRyYHBDSC7MTDroGK80T_8ruUHsRGfCUuoH3CZzMkw5vg/s1725/PXL_20240307_090504869.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIYnxOOwaFNWi_hpArMzhALIpszXNVNWz4xt_xSOy64buwxERnv0UpiHFbH3YE3N3USV9N0tRdqpR7z83H6-SWssQjALh8STUQ7XabDYQ5_l7DWHq-5QrdnRMoMYOgHTszIw1OllU0udIdwFuRyYHBDSC7MTDroGK80T_8ruUHsRGfCUuoH3CZzMkw5vg/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_090504869.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>However, it is the only groomed piste to connect from St. Anton to Stuben and it is quite crowded (I had nightmares of skiing this run from when I lived in Innsbruck in 2019). Further, on the day we were there, a few cm of fresh snow sat on top of a rock hard melt-freeze crust, which quickly resulted in a hard ice/soft mogul situation that tortured the many skiers of limited abilities. We slowly picked our way down this to ensure no surprise collisions.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYoKGM-AWnf3C5KeP8r93FIPenioM8Qmw4wzzc_Q3PX98ZowydMMjsV4hJe3Wgln0AF4PPVBw1OyWhPcd_iyHXa9haoEwr9FgEvC-tt1SOzr68TeDVSnyIkhpmxd6OMzQh10fUQLSJILaACap5FhxvKDLuRAo8vjhkDEnh8_TRWEaZmDSCZVAyrevvFac/s1725/PXL_20240307_091518678.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYoKGM-AWnf3C5KeP8r93FIPenioM8Qmw4wzzc_Q3PX98ZowydMMjsV4hJe3Wgln0AF4PPVBw1OyWhPcd_iyHXa9haoEwr9FgEvC-tt1SOzr68TeDVSnyIkhpmxd6OMzQh10fUQLSJILaACap5FhxvKDLuRAo8vjhkDEnh8_TRWEaZmDSCZVAyrevvFac/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_091518678.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>What a relief to get down. We then rode the flexenbahn cable car and skied down to Zürs, pictured in the valley to the right in the photo below (to the left is the Klöster valley). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifQd-KO6q9UKZaiIoIx5xOHpeOcMt7XV8u9L9iJRtv6dWXjXBnUq9MAlMmYwp6lgyD6sZOfN0CHxj-WfvO_GQCpqI1MNlutZZ1mgIA4gZV9eB1TcePor-LlcfnpD3EXMAGg0ac3BtSWOpnGz5KghwNWvOthA0GMYtsYYNME8KJcwbQXizd1QMqHA0R3_g/s5070/PXL_20240307_094707512.PANO.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1668" data-original-width="5070" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifQd-KO6q9UKZaiIoIx5xOHpeOcMt7XV8u9L9iJRtv6dWXjXBnUq9MAlMmYwp6lgyD6sZOfN0CHxj-WfvO_GQCpqI1MNlutZZ1mgIA4gZV9eB1TcePor-LlcfnpD3EXMAGg0ac3BtSWOpnGz5KghwNWvOthA0GMYtsYYNME8KJcwbQXizd1QMqHA0R3_g/w640-h210/PXL_20240307_094707512.PANO.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>We did some skiing in the Zürs area before ascending the Madlochbahn to ski down to Zug. The descent to Zug is long and quite spectacular. I've had my eye on some of the freeride terrain in this area since I first skied this route in 2019, but alas it would need to wait for another day. <div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1-soRsb8hnnz5e1hZ4RRi_Et8zLTOI5-98pggDrH92xwIxtS8cm7QTcx-IgG6w0KF5wIHPuNjerz8yoIulRRArP44MQaLJPsNcS-c3aQrg7Te9m_Q1CuPBVR4OscQi2nJNGqnvm0M3vqUADaLZvslUu14y7YFc8A_1dMO2sqD9Rd7Ds6mnzXGkHuCTlg/s1725/PXL_20240307_110918012.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1-soRsb8hnnz5e1hZ4RRi_Et8zLTOI5-98pggDrH92xwIxtS8cm7QTcx-IgG6w0KF5wIHPuNjerz8yoIulRRArP44MQaLJPsNcS-c3aQrg7Te9m_Q1CuPBVR4OscQi2nJNGqnvm0M3vqUADaLZvslUu14y7YFc8A_1dMO2sqD9Rd7Ds6mnzXGkHuCTlg/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_110918012.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>We stuck to the pistes as we descended to Zug with views of Lech and the Lech Valley. </div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj28zKjBbZgb0xZkdVH_zuI6-QhsEcziQXhsGFSAeydrJNy28XMGMDVPiNJf5rvxIrUnfMAbwXEO834LDWfSfEzy0x6l4oTRuT1N-n1xAaI9Dp4UwUGtljbO7BRd6C4MhNR50TLZzmgZUicGtCdhoN4JY-wz6aqI3bCvt-4UtNc5KI8jdporg-EZc4c1wk/s1725/PXL_20240307_111219394.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj28zKjBbZgb0xZkdVH_zuI6-QhsEcziQXhsGFSAeydrJNy28XMGMDVPiNJf5rvxIrUnfMAbwXEO834LDWfSfEzy0x6l4oTRuT1N-n1xAaI9Dp4UwUGtljbO7BRd6C4MhNR50TLZzmgZUicGtCdhoN4JY-wz6aqI3bCvt-4UtNc5KI8jdporg-EZc4c1wk/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_111219394.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Eventually we found our way to Lech. Under normal circumstances, I suspect we would have already gotten to Warth at the northern end of Ski Arlberg, but we were skiing cautiously and puttering along and decided to head back to St. Anton from after pounding a schnitzel semmel at the local grocery store. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu7zN3iYdeucfPwSX44tf8Hbh1wut7IWn8a0HssT1oZmTVIsqzcd4ONDxnG-Or7CgSb_72x7YGFI6jzrh_mqlehe2ga13zQ3qgUB8CJs0Z4dau1LJf5fSxzK3uYa856g3dRMjSCnBc0bX_SThGIDeGGfHOBhB5M_DsdgIATrVz9endv57hI1aAzOIQz5k/s3450/PXL_20240307_115612027.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2587" data-original-width="3450" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu7zN3iYdeucfPwSX44tf8Hbh1wut7IWn8a0HssT1oZmTVIsqzcd4ONDxnG-Or7CgSb_72x7YGFI6jzrh_mqlehe2ga13zQ3qgUB8CJs0Z4dau1LJf5fSxzK3uYa856g3dRMjSCnBc0bX_SThGIDeGGfHOBhB5M_DsdgIATrVz9endv57hI1aAzOIQz5k/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_115612027.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Lech</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>The section from Lech back to Zürs is one of my favorites, not because the skiing is great (it's pretty low angle), but because the views are so spectacular. From Lech, one rides the Rüfikopfbahn about 3000 vertical feet to a high shelf above Zürs. You just meander on beginner runs along his shelf, gaping at the surrounding scenery. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4hiOCuXqz9gkiUEEt1VBf4g3-ybp74Dg_HZDQI8Da2jacURieu0HszfxxbV3Xau2y0NXlJ9hweQDqQRA7GVe3PCLvUUgmohDOwXpOj6kyMD1nGwBM20bjBQ7lZHqFUUh0GzPD2imL_aZ4z04PKcEWgR42U44Zx03bMnAybQETW5ue2Fm394sVntN7wb0/s3043/PXL_20240307_123719918.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2281" data-original-width="3043" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4hiOCuXqz9gkiUEEt1VBf4g3-ybp74Dg_HZDQI8Da2jacURieu0HszfxxbV3Xau2y0NXlJ9hweQDqQRA7GVe3PCLvUUgmohDOwXpOj6kyMD1nGwBM20bjBQ7lZHqFUUh0GzPD2imL_aZ4z04PKcEWgR42U44Zx03bMnAybQETW5ue2Fm394sVntN7wb0/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_123719918.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Eventually one reaches the Trittalpbahn chairlift and rides it to gain a bit more vertical before descending to Zürs. From here, you ascend one gondola and then descend another to get back to near Stuben (there are no marked descent routes to get back down to near Stuben). </div><div><br /></div><div>There's still one more lift to go, the Valfagehr to near Ulmer Hütte from where you can descend all the way back to St. Anton. But on such a nice day, there is another option, and that is to catch the Schlepp Lift and then ski down to the Vallugabahn I cable car and take it up to 2600 meters. From here, you can take a small, 6 passenger cable car to the top of the Valluga and gape at the Arlberg. No skis are allowed (without guide) on the latter, so it's purely a scenic ride. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioiFW3lfMv5jUgr2j3uM4njNRgldGnW-sBb5f8mUFQr8zAvWg3Z5F8f183UsoWUzl9rDzn_1ZsFqjsxPjOEBkkArzmLZS-eMIdbmgQg4tqBVej3fRiML2ygOoNZuj1v1yBB-ynlGuPA1bH_6HkM_pMM3ltMXIMyuZp4ktBt3jlpwyC1htZP-Io5ZfbhEw/s1725/original_2a491855-d927-4715-8050-95acaffd15d8_PXL_20240307_141147761.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioiFW3lfMv5jUgr2j3uM4njNRgldGnW-sBb5f8mUFQr8zAvWg3Z5F8f183UsoWUzl9rDzn_1ZsFqjsxPjOEBkkArzmLZS-eMIdbmgQg4tqBVej3fRiML2ygOoNZuj1v1yBB-ynlGuPA1bH_6HkM_pMM3ltMXIMyuZp4ktBt3jlpwyC1htZP-Io5ZfbhEw/w640-h480/original_2a491855-d927-4715-8050-95acaffd15d8_PXL_20240307_141147761.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdGuCKcjT1I4bivlLfdkCEsfgCVBp8JMxZry5DxLI8hLOM8-27h-yodMDA1aZE1QZbls-4AABwQajJjNQaWN9DdPEHn4CY67ZLhXpdeNHn0FQvoXd21vp4B_fFIGJ0oKo8L3P_EU7E2tgOrmHAPzyUr4uWlYjWARZEz6jh_MI8HysGYqjBsXKrhVWv9Cc/s1725/PXL_20240307_141159395.jpg"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdGuCKcjT1I4bivlLfdkCEsfgCVBp8JMxZry5DxLI8hLOM8-27h-yodMDA1aZE1QZbls-4AABwQajJjNQaWN9DdPEHn4CY67ZLhXpdeNHn0FQvoXd21vp4B_fFIGJ0oKo8L3P_EU7E2tgOrmHAPzyUr4uWlYjWARZEz6jh_MI8HysGYqjBsXKrhVWv9Cc/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_141159395.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>After riding back down the small cable car, you can finally ski down to a T-bar, ride it back up a few hundred vertical feet, and then do the very long descent to St. Anton. We did this late in the day with hoards of other skiers also trying to get back to St. Anton, resulting in our second terrifying descent of the day. In this case, not only was the trail packed, but half of the skiers are also inebriated. Eastern skiers will recognize the "loose and frozen granular" snow condition. </div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhojpTOaQEDbK-w4kDI8v0VmTn_nminKOz5BHChG_vk9h5zHQw7PY2wuaWKWBjmut5NlBOeGWJl7fYnojMCxYlhdigkVkrU902jIm76VKEshizkpm2BFMj-rtws8OlpFoCSp2_snI36Z8qNHxe9PnbU8FdWQvDt9Q7tFREZjFsbsmiw8IVamO7HVappC5s/s1725/PXL_20240307_145720615.jpg"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhojpTOaQEDbK-w4kDI8v0VmTn_nminKOz5BHChG_vk9h5zHQw7PY2wuaWKWBjmut5NlBOeGWJl7fYnojMCxYlhdigkVkrU902jIm76VKEshizkpm2BFMj-rtws8OlpFoCSp2_snI36Z8qNHxe9PnbU8FdWQvDt9Q7tFREZjFsbsmiw8IVamO7HVappC5s/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_145720615.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>St. Anton is famous for après and the run back to town eventually takes you past some of the more popular bars including the Sennhütte, Heustadl, and Mooserwirt. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-_QRrbD38c37erXvA96Hdcx7wcbtAh6PTbnI_HJQm41jOGZJOmgiBZKOrjB-gJTtAOgdzXpYw7VfmPPDLt9RQXuUhhoi7zgtfZ-EoK5Kj5MDNlijl1deymPBAgpCKltmv4F_6XelKPxIgCjVLbhvnapW2XhGJnkHn8fkvLH2EovCnQwap4EGc20eg1RM/s1725/PXL_20240307_150815694.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-_QRrbD38c37erXvA96Hdcx7wcbtAh6PTbnI_HJQm41jOGZJOmgiBZKOrjB-gJTtAOgdzXpYw7VfmPPDLt9RQXuUhhoi7zgtfZ-EoK5Kj5MDNlijl1deymPBAgpCKltmv4F_6XelKPxIgCjVLbhvnapW2XhGJnkHn8fkvLH2EovCnQwap4EGc20eg1RM/w640-h480/PXL_20240307_150815694.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Our circuit covered 18 runs, 39 km, and 7750 meters of vertical. It was a pretty good day given the limitations (missing in the route below is the initial ride up the Galzigbahn from St. Anton). </div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjYsjMx16QFGBsuh5VGDARH8rgetT9xjhY4iLlzOeSnitbuN87MnUnKSDhE5_xujYb95U51lokOQmrOdt6y4I0hHFeJQFXHpAulV2YqYgL8k3Bi5QSWl2MKY5IXnTkSigrB_IJmzEC8nPPyxSgLU1EsaCkduZJFIWSD0cyIRiAS5kfo3rUhGQDzGVDmKo/s2522/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%201.24.10%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2262" data-original-width="2522" height="574" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjYsjMx16QFGBsuh5VGDARH8rgetT9xjhY4iLlzOeSnitbuN87MnUnKSDhE5_xujYb95U51lokOQmrOdt6y4I0hHFeJQFXHpAulV2YqYgL8k3Bi5QSWl2MKY5IXnTkSigrB_IJmzEC8nPPyxSgLU1EsaCkduZJFIWSD0cyIRiAS5kfo3rUhGQDzGVDmKo/w640-h574/Screenshot%202024-03-13%20at%201.24.10%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>St. Anton's full "<a href="https://www.skiarlberg.at/en/Ski-Arlberg/RUN-of-FAME/RUN-of-FAME">Run of Fame</a>", advertised as the longest ski cruicuit in the Alps, allegedly covers 85 km and 18,000 m of vertical. We skipped Rendl (south of St. Anton), Stuben, and the extension up to Warth and Schröcken. That will need to wait for two arms. I suspect if I were ever to attempt it, I'd rather start in Zürs (probably bussing from the train station) as St. Anton is a much larger village and it produces quite a pulse of skiers all attempting the same circuit. Alternatively, we could do what one of my Austrian friend recommends and that is to forget the Run of Fame and focus on good terrain. That's probably good advice.</div><div><br /></div><div>We didn't linger in St. Anton for après. Instead, caught the train back to Innsbruck because we were thinking about getting some sleep, getting up early, and going to another mega resort. That will be the subject of part III.</div></div></div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-40497123154837464172024-03-12T09:35:00.006-06:002024-03-12T17:43:04.494-06:00Austrian Misadventures, Part I<p style="text-align: center;"> <i>"Plans are worthless, but planning is everything"</i><br />- Dwight D. Eisenhower</p><p style="text-align: left;">For the past few years, my son and I have been trying to find a time when our schedules align for a father/son trip that my mother suggested we do after my father and his grandfather passed away. Pandemic, school, work, and life made finding a block of time difficult for many years. </p><p style="text-align: left;">It appeared, however, we could pull something off this winter over my spring break, so in early January we booked a trip to Austria so that I could give him a proper introduction to backcountry and resort skiing in Tyrol and environs. </p><p style="text-align: left;">We spent a lot of time trying to figure out where to stay, where to ski, etc. Ultimately we settled on staying the entire trip in Innsbruck since it is easy to use transit to travel to any number of resorts or touring areas from Bavaria to the north to South Tyrol to the south and from St. Anton to the west to Kitzbuhel in the east. In addition, I have a number of friends in the Innsbruck area, so we would have some local skiing and dining partners. </p><p style="text-align: left;">At least that was the plan. </p><p style="text-align: left;">Our first day in Innsbruck dawned with cloudy skies and some fits and starts of valley rain and mountain snow. We decided to take an easy ski tour up Axamer Lizum, a local resort, and enjoy the culinary delights at the top. This turned out to be a good call as the visibility was pretty much nil at upper elevations, so it would have been a waste to buy a lift ticket and ski touring outside the confines of a resort would have been terrifying.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEignn1ECC-hm_e45xHf5xuvcLcg4LTQNGtm_Z8aO7eaKZ1xzt4BS5IDLIIBrDju70C-El-RnyYDyJywL43paDNG9MT5oqjw79JbwHoaP4dqwTrLND2bgYXTh2RddS_myfbgtfc8Co3LJCYT1zrE1oPSv5pxTLRHoyv_dYOK2ChURl7XnFhqmyrowjQ9AXA/s1663/PXL_20240301_103213072.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1247" data-original-width="1663" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEignn1ECC-hm_e45xHf5xuvcLcg4LTQNGtm_Z8aO7eaKZ1xzt4BS5IDLIIBrDju70C-El-RnyYDyJywL43paDNG9MT5oqjw79JbwHoaP4dqwTrLND2bgYXTh2RddS_myfbgtfc8Co3LJCYT1zrE1oPSv5pxTLRHoyv_dYOK2ChURl7XnFhqmyrowjQ9AXA/w640-h480/PXL_20240301_103213072.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">Plus, we did find the culinary delights at the top.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl1hHBown4VkIuB2T_rWTX35im2_MaeKhkqgPXsR8NepeA3N0waNgguZUqG0O6B_vo3lReBiQJuPmalSmsmcOfNO97rmG1hHQe34HihTqgOmR9SOJud4yUXgS1FBKjHZXLS0IoKw-lCmLoLGFzi1NTqsoCHscs8cQycqXuLo9Dd0AB-zYS82noQYkN9G4/s1663/PXL_20240301_104327919.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1247" data-original-width="1663" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl1hHBown4VkIuB2T_rWTX35im2_MaeKhkqgPXsR8NepeA3N0waNgguZUqG0O6B_vo3lReBiQJuPmalSmsmcOfNO97rmG1hHQe34HihTqgOmR9SOJud4yUXgS1FBKjHZXLS0IoKw-lCmLoLGFzi1NTqsoCHscs8cQycqXuLo9Dd0AB-zYS82noQYkN9G4/w640-h480/PXL_20240301_104327919.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">After enjoying a proper lunch, we began to ski down. We were traveling slowly down a groomer given the visibility when all of a sudden I saw my son take a hard, awkward fall. I'm not sure if he hit a grooming rut or what, but I haven't seen him fall in years and I got a pit in my stomach. He was in a lot of pain and said he felt his arm come out of the socket and go back in. The pit got deeper. </p><p style="text-align: left;">After giving him a few minutes, he decided to ski down to the bottom, which we did. We then got on the bus back to Innsbruck. While riding back to town, the arm came painfully out again. I called a friend in Innsbruck who met us at the hospital where the dislocated shoulder diagnosis was confirmed and he was fitted for a sling.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Ski trip over, or so we thought. </p><p style="text-align: left;">That night, although in shock, we started making a list of things we could do. Staying in Innsbruck turned out to be very fortuitous since it is so easy to access transit from the main train station only a 5 minute walk from our rented flat. </p><p style="text-align: left;">The next morning, we bought week long transit passes covering all rail and bus transit in Tyrol and some areas of Bavaria and South Tirol for $46.50 euros each. We were off.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><u>Mittenwald</u></b></p><p style="text-align: left;">That first post-crash day we took the train from Innsbruck to Mittenwald, just across the border in Germany. There was a cable car there that I've been oogling since first seeing it in 2015. Part of the attraction is simply to answer the question, why would anyone ever build a cable car up that mountain? </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5RKX7HYBJv9t1CzLYmM-zHvVedf3X-Dz6I9oj2UaXEjBPw_4USViqUBuoW9NDkSkcS86MD1NrKec4ou8AJXIkMvyG2rY5BqEioLUT1418bZc9YrNYSe0-b9V6zhmokmCXCv4tCfU_DLcdS9PBgM_JGGSV9-suYGXPOQOCANC4w0c7Ky9zW6veo_taMho/s3326/PXL_20240302_104640338.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2495" data-original-width="3326" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5RKX7HYBJv9t1CzLYmM-zHvVedf3X-Dz6I9oj2UaXEjBPw_4USViqUBuoW9NDkSkcS86MD1NrKec4ou8AJXIkMvyG2rY5BqEioLUT1418bZc9YrNYSe0-b9V6zhmokmCXCv4tCfU_DLcdS9PBgM_JGGSV9-suYGXPOQOCANC4w0c7Ky9zW6veo_taMho/w640-h480/PXL_20240302_104640338.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">It rises 4300 vertical feet. There's no ski area at the top. However, there is a brewery and with a short winter walk with limited avalanche hazard, you can get a great view of the Karwendel Alps.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkseFdbnaIQuWzybr9q5KmKFdymxr7UntyyuwbXDHyR2bH3ItmhOyK4P2SZaQVmrdUlaF1xhY35JZ3-8psl33yM5xk0gD8PQRgRNKLG39uudod0R_7p5zJWng31ZR5oGe7y5Spes5bO07odxYVALKOv_3fz8YseYwiPKbGZ3RGmgsbMWsMoSzK0CTIMds/s3662/PXL_20240302_112227354.PANO.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1667" data-original-width="3662" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkseFdbnaIQuWzybr9q5KmKFdymxr7UntyyuwbXDHyR2bH3ItmhOyK4P2SZaQVmrdUlaF1xhY35JZ3-8psl33yM5xk0gD8PQRgRNKLG39uudod0R_7p5zJWng31ZR5oGe7y5Spes5bO07odxYVALKOv_3fz8YseYwiPKbGZ3RGmgsbMWsMoSzK0CTIMds/w640-h292/PXL_20240302_112227354.PANO.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">If you are so inclined, there is also a 400-meter long tunnel that they have carved through rock that will take you to an area you can ski tour. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk0FTJytPQdRG6MgbI4BLbFHMn9lsmMvyliTF17v303XkvFRIf6oyNvh45_f82O2WKCUZR2gqJIm5nZfvhn0ilZHOoSIMYbPrCJ9jIIev5inSJBVFaYZJLqLEuSgXhRcfcD_7bW3dqdfhLQaCYFxblfyAsEYUVJicv0nedwjBqUqV6UvQRsnot-P7mU6c/s1663/PXL_20240302_122302905.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1247" data-original-width="1663" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk0FTJytPQdRG6MgbI4BLbFHMn9lsmMvyliTF17v303XkvFRIf6oyNvh45_f82O2WKCUZR2gqJIm5nZfvhn0ilZHOoSIMYbPrCJ9jIIev5inSJBVFaYZJLqLEuSgXhRcfcD_7bW3dqdfhLQaCYFxblfyAsEYUVJicv0nedwjBqUqV6UvQRsnot-P7mU6c/w640-h480/PXL_20240302_122302905.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">All and all a fun day.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><u>Hahnenkamm</u></b></p><p style="text-align: left;">The next day we took the train to Kitzbuhel. I figured if Erik couldn't ski the Streif, he could at least see it. Turns out it wasn't skiable from top to bottom anyway. Kitzbuhel is quite low and recent warmth had decimated the snow. The "traverse" was closed and there was no natural snow at the bottom. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVnNLH7FW6R87nswtnWH87q78h7YkaXeQkqdP-Pizpwxw_CjizMP-cr0d0DKAP6YmpXCzL9ySUZPfvhasRWQZTSGdhT7QleFiKCJZHzNO5x9iejgIE7BDsR2i9u2EyWdJUFgBljC0SYxKqXsvnnLzuTI98lgGcnVddOGkIWBG2bEr7xytT0cZedMOI-NQ/s1663/PXL_20240303_091126454.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1247" data-original-width="1663" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVnNLH7FW6R87nswtnWH87q78h7YkaXeQkqdP-Pizpwxw_CjizMP-cr0d0DKAP6YmpXCzL9ySUZPfvhasRWQZTSGdhT7QleFiKCJZHzNO5x9iejgIE7BDsR2i9u2EyWdJUFgBljC0SYxKqXsvnnLzuTI98lgGcnVddOGkIWBG2bEr7xytT0cZedMOI-NQ/w640-h480/PXL_20240303_091126454.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;">We bought a pedestrian pass for the Hahnenkamm cable car, did a short hike at the top (there's some winter hiking that can be done up there, although I'd rather ski), and looked at the start house for the famed downhill. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5QuoQvgVogKfq4sLhYcv_kugbqNS6vlio5gdOoxYbeyVj7X15oSKY8AzSRWRlzRWIpim6LUBHGuTU7kv79QYYnN1mlRAHSTAsgu8QI12CdSVziTiRpCpOIXNmvB2-ycOPOwbZ6n0E6E0aSLSgZBKdIQHGE0w8bJHWgKqQp78Nn1DH8U8KusucEC41T5g/s1663/PXL_20240303_093439241.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1247" data-original-width="1663" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5QuoQvgVogKfq4sLhYcv_kugbqNS6vlio5gdOoxYbeyVj7X15oSKY8AzSRWRlzRWIpim6LUBHGuTU7kv79QYYnN1mlRAHSTAsgu8QI12CdSVziTiRpCpOIXNmvB2-ycOPOwbZ6n0E6E0aSLSgZBKdIQHGE0w8bJHWgKqQp78Nn1DH8U8KusucEC41T5g/w640-h480/PXL_20240303_093439241.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: left;"><b><u>Sölden</u></b></p><p style="text-align: left;">That evening a friend in Innsbruck said we should go with him to Sölden tomorrow, so we did. I went skiing while Erik rode cable cars there and in nearby Obergurgl. Below is a photo from the Gaislachkogl at Sölden, which is just above 3000 meters. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAx_VlZCilA35Guqa5QeUXoEAFmcskaJLJ9C9wf7uTiM2cToCzurn0LOOSccXfWZDzW3YEkvuUBu2drcooqe4JWqBvJ_hKRHppGh1Cl_WlyEOzmo62BpGIN-utNgBlD6O3zXn_E1zklQdgqFi_r1dsYgBF8sMcPnSqDkoK2-imkjKMQ3sJ8R2_wMxuG8I/s1663/PXL_20240304_080114855.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1247" data-original-width="1663" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAx_VlZCilA35Guqa5QeUXoEAFmcskaJLJ9C9wf7uTiM2cToCzurn0LOOSccXfWZDzW3YEkvuUBu2drcooqe4JWqBvJ_hKRHppGh1Cl_WlyEOzmo62BpGIN-utNgBlD6O3zXn_E1zklQdgqFi_r1dsYgBF8sMcPnSqDkoK2-imkjKMQ3sJ8R2_wMxuG8I/w640-h480/PXL_20240304_080114855.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>I'd never skied Sölden previously. It has enormous relief, covering more than 6,000 vertical feet, high altitude glaciers, etc. There's a lot of lower-angle skiing there, but also some great freeride terrain.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLuJNNlI3nVhaUys-QwO_KwjuVXlGkBjXVg-b4J6U2NOdyU7yTwYC6Q7Q8yOjWKxypybl1wbFS5593SfayOTGardu1AW0BYkj08HLAxVQspcGTTnOaZBjtUW6LnbLaVTfI94RA9slhsoFtjx0bED9q0uSXXdvsTht-6fUqLzl-RcD_Gy2FR4zfATRLdTA/s1725/PXL_20240304_085303118.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLuJNNlI3nVhaUys-QwO_KwjuVXlGkBjXVg-b4J6U2NOdyU7yTwYC6Q7Q8yOjWKxypybl1wbFS5593SfayOTGardu1AW0BYkj08HLAxVQspcGTTnOaZBjtUW6LnbLaVTfI94RA9slhsoFtjx0bED9q0uSXXdvsTht-6fUqLzl-RcD_Gy2FR4zfATRLdTA/w640-h480/PXL_20240304_085303118.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>I took the longest run of my life to finish the day, covering more than 6000 vertical feet from the top of the Schwartze Schneid gondola, down the valley below to the base. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTbMx6RKWI53sMwAIYD8yZanl5fUhg6gJIf5vAJjLHcBMC6coRojDtd8J3kBcIK3A5aR1hlubI180fdUKyyredBIvEtn_8fi42T30gLcXL7nYq6-rcrmtfxBpkk6t_qR2L5M8o8ucEg-YkIXLz6HnReBFLlkF5UxqPLPhKt8FYwUbc2LYmJzt313FCoSg/s3450/PXL_20240304_112957179.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2587" data-original-width="3450" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTbMx6RKWI53sMwAIYD8yZanl5fUhg6gJIf5vAJjLHcBMC6coRojDtd8J3kBcIK3A5aR1hlubI180fdUKyyredBIvEtn_8fi42T30gLcXL7nYq6-rcrmtfxBpkk6t_qR2L5M8o8ucEg-YkIXLz6HnReBFLlkF5UxqPLPhKt8FYwUbc2LYmJzt313FCoSg/w640-h480/PXL_20240304_112957179.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Much of it was lower angle, and the final descent into Sölden was a mushy, terrifying white ribbon of death, but a PR is a PR.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4RSzgNsG7D-icUcQWGYsDCEUPho5F6ON2OjJT_a7sbEKrQ4e_-f1uLAfHNWfBlgvla-jZ0BcARqtum4USi6jeyMdaix6OBFwK_HfRy2f3SWWzpnMZGazJANiULGHTi0IuH47ueg39Ia1BlPwZQRW4RxA9F21bkwrDF9R-Ey48ksQ_-q6haXtG0zOwsD0/s1725/PXL_20240304_114821869.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1294" data-original-width="1725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4RSzgNsG7D-icUcQWGYsDCEUPho5F6ON2OjJT_a7sbEKrQ4e_-f1uLAfHNWfBlgvla-jZ0BcARqtum4USi6jeyMdaix6OBFwK_HfRy2f3SWWzpnMZGazJANiULGHTi0IuH47ueg39Ia1BlPwZQRW4RxA9F21bkwrDF9R-Ey48ksQ_-q6haXtG0zOwsD0/w640-h480/PXL_20240304_114821869.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>So, my ski trip wasn't really over, but my son's? We'll talk about that in a future post. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-82068087891503531012024-02-28T06:44:00.000-07:002024-02-28T06:44:00.753-07:00Blog Break<p> I'll be away from the blog for a couple of weeks. Enjoy the snow and the March sun!</p>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-26518091901806234012024-02-25T09:11:00.003-07:002024-02-25T09:11:58.430-07:00How About Something Different?Many people are likely suffering from spring fever this weekend with sunshine and mild temperatures along the Wasatch Front. Saturday's high temperature at the Salt Lake City International Airport was 56F and the National Weather Service is going for 61F for today (Sunday).<div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipQT89wY2l5LiKVNFkpq5R3Stm_tW_G7D3XJdnZznCXRZFRkXAK9vbnJLPwUrLi8C7Q5cb_z1iAZREXRABgk9hJItU8GKyk_AzlCNFn4hPkImPcbD5xI1K97GN69csORycfvtg_aForBPIwVyB2onB12vH4UzGm9exsPzuSI8rdKDNtpdUWNQFmQ0zEJA/s1275/Screenshot%202024-02-25%20at%208.41.16%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="420" data-original-width="1275" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipQT89wY2l5LiKVNFkpq5R3Stm_tW_G7D3XJdnZznCXRZFRkXAK9vbnJLPwUrLi8C7Q5cb_z1iAZREXRABgk9hJItU8GKyk_AzlCNFn4hPkImPcbD5xI1K97GN69csORycfvtg_aForBPIwVyB2onB12vH4UzGm9exsPzuSI8rdKDNtpdUWNQFmQ0zEJA/w640-h210/Screenshot%202024-02-25%20at%208.41.16%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: NWS. Downloaded at 8:41 AM MST</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Nevertheless, the snow held up fairly well at Alta yesterday, although I only skied until 1:30. If you are wondering, the record high for today is 68 and for the month is 69 (set on Feb 28). We should fall short of these. <div><div><br /></div><div>A look at that forecast though does show something "different" on top for Monday night when a surface cold front and upper-level trough will move through northern Utah. The GFS forecast valid 0600 UTC 27 February (11 PM Monday night) is shown below, showing the front draped over northern Utah.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnXdEqkjm63BsBymJ43C-NMCE1ozSERuXwW97MD0lnEGmH3FBH1nHdLYImycKip5uxjhwqkyLe-c4AKeH8fSNz5tVoaGy3BDmnyvwKdCoKrGcORkKnJbUxdhvdfKYhhUxn2NHyczkwLG-jiHdb7jPeoNWNGoSNRnqeWbt5ermUjJqJADMha7gr5VQassI/s1875/GFSSY_WE2024022506F048.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1246" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnXdEqkjm63BsBymJ43C-NMCE1ozSERuXwW97MD0lnEGmH3FBH1nHdLYImycKip5uxjhwqkyLe-c4AKeH8fSNz5tVoaGy3BDmnyvwKdCoKrGcORkKnJbUxdhvdfKYhhUxn2NHyczkwLG-jiHdb7jPeoNWNGoSNRnqeWbt5ermUjJqJADMha7gr5VQassI/w640-h426/GFSSY_WE2024022506F048.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Mountain snow and some valley rain look to develop Monday afternoon. Snow levels will likely fall to the valley floor by about 11 PM. Most of the action looks to be overnight on Monday, although we could see a few snow showers during the day on Tuesday. </div><div><br /></div><div>Most members of our downscaled SREF are putting out 1–4" of snow for the airport. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI5f6F9A0rF2f73ihr7RzeQNVuqCW23gEDo1bZikn8zCPYR-q14NgacV0bT8OBF8biOim24Kq5dVGZuaBB2etGUtx0Ka6vzVQ6KN4-w_9hN-8Jz56RTyQf81FOPy9fLG9IXlrSdyGMnnPcG3IKlZRcMO3cPLUufnw-n7XTT7uKqj1xLCoTbq5hBB9FrgY/s1857/SREFPL_KSLC2024022509F087.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1857" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI5f6F9A0rF2f73ihr7RzeQNVuqCW23gEDo1bZikn8zCPYR-q14NgacV0bT8OBF8biOim24Kq5dVGZuaBB2etGUtx0Ka6vzVQ6KN4-w_9hN-8Jz56RTyQf81FOPy9fLG9IXlrSdyGMnnPcG3IKlZRcMO3cPLUufnw-n7XTT7uKqj1xLCoTbq5hBB9FrgY/w640-h444/SREFPL_KSLC2024022509F087.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Our HRRR-derived snowfall product, which goes through 1200 UTC 27 Feb (5 AM MST Tuesday), is putting out 2.2" for the airport and 3.6" for Cottonwood Heights. </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_rgrh_N_sRoxnclf-YXc1-Oy3lvsdYvhNnSSkRIEM67iQWYaEgZ2ToDBU9gmwBzpgZvygxhejuh2jp-0d4SXByJTaJjolhnIcn7X-QtNmhaXGa_-S0erHbZ5wMP29u1hlfc-zNm6xShfMLnf-y4feeMIzryjitQEu_DdIIP3jIxnCeK-A0Eum5HzAy-c/s1331/HRRR48HS_WF2024022512F048.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1236" data-original-width="1331" height="594" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_rgrh_N_sRoxnclf-YXc1-Oy3lvsdYvhNnSSkRIEM67iQWYaEgZ2ToDBU9gmwBzpgZvygxhejuh2jp-0d4SXByJTaJjolhnIcn7X-QtNmhaXGa_-S0erHbZ5wMP29u1hlfc-zNm6xShfMLnf-y4feeMIzryjitQEu_DdIIP3jIxnCeK-A0Eum5HzAy-c/w640-h594/HRRR48HS_WF2024022512F048.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Right now, the National Weather Service has a winter weather advisory up for 1 to 3 inches in the Salt Lake and Utah Valleys. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5bWM5Ai9p-dMUjzDkIRxB2xf5dYIhO4JGJ_EUeDtpPfofv1WyOjbXll6Tq6EX-BHRPLj92KsVdKDB0DWalirMr6Jfi0YG8UZyb9s47wWaZSX7g33t1E51z33auBicrRbXVNWAKzLVEWMaxZ9rp9B2o5YSPLYJU5waP-80wL4zbi6cDs4WQuSEbtV1N9I/s1600/Screenshot%202024-02-25%20at%209.08.10%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1400" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5bWM5Ai9p-dMUjzDkIRxB2xf5dYIhO4JGJ_EUeDtpPfofv1WyOjbXll6Tq6EX-BHRPLj92KsVdKDB0DWalirMr6Jfi0YG8UZyb9s47wWaZSX7g33t1E51z33auBicrRbXVNWAKzLVEWMaxZ9rp9B2o5YSPLYJU5waP-80wL4zbi6cDs4WQuSEbtV1N9I/w560-h640/Screenshot%202024-02-25%20at%209.08.10%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="560" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: NWS. Downloaded 9:08 AM 25 Feb 2024</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Forecasts evolve, so keep an eye on things and plan your Tuesday commute accordingly. For larger accumulations in the valley, the front would need to be more productive or stall, or the post-frontal environment on Tuesday will need to be more favorable than currently advertised by the models. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-40505553626470249312024-02-21T08:18:00.004-07:002024-02-21T08:18:40.623-07:00A Wet, Mild February<p>It's too early for a full monthly recap, but the numbers for the first 20 days of February are worth a look.</p><p>Total precipitation at the Salt Lake City International Airport through yesterday was 2.93" which rates as the 7th most on record *for the entire month.*</p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8WZhoVHnAt1rRDIZedV6OD7MLWNBeePJVm3sjRGbNEIgu2qOTB1MQ-NQaI_LtJiBbySMPmTZ4shA1Yoaf4QarvUCzxCo0Y6XnbFKtfel7XKVM5Yd_SaiOREZ-1Ih524ke668e4e0WXzx0H-6Hd7Dn2Pgq189iL4ptGt4lCIxyk5kJvd6UiiMtPsPdn9c/s2590/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="2590" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8WZhoVHnAt1rRDIZedV6OD7MLWNBeePJVm3sjRGbNEIgu2qOTB1MQ-NQaI_LtJiBbySMPmTZ4shA1Yoaf4QarvUCzxCo0Y6XnbFKtfel7XKVM5Yd_SaiOREZ-1Ih524ke668e4e0WXzx0H-6Hd7Dn2Pgq189iL4ptGt4lCIxyk5kJvd6UiiMtPsPdn9c/w640-h264/chart.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/</td></tr></tbody></table></p><p>We can climb up a little higher before the end of the month (and will probably get some more today and tonight).</p><p>It has also been warm. For the first 20 days of the month, the average temperature was 40.5F, which rates as the 9th warmest. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig1y6hSscn6KS-EOSg9fEZ_1Ph45nRHacq6VqicurVC_ycU6w-haQ1Jy0kSJmGfLH28Ks_6oQfaYonut_qKGDKx_s8KQqQFrKlqlPjOXUFx8M0GpRBS0Vs-tpObIC1J0ZzfA8krXY00UNJ7hie-zci9hV6-Tg588lJSNJ8gLgR41jVInAcBEWjPeTfjUw/s2590/chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1066" data-original-width="2590" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig1y6hSscn6KS-EOSg9fEZ_1Ph45nRHacq6VqicurVC_ycU6w-haQ1Jy0kSJmGfLH28Ks_6oQfaYonut_qKGDKx_s8KQqQFrKlqlPjOXUFx8M0GpRBS0Vs-tpObIC1J0ZzfA8krXY00UNJ7hie-zci9hV6-Tg588lJSNJ8gLgR41jVInAcBEWjPeTfjUw/w640-h264/chart.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Finally, despite all of that precipitation, we've only had 1.2" of snow for the month at the airport. Snowfall has been scant at the lower elevations, even as the snowpack has really benefited at upper elevations. <div><br /></div><div>Speaking of upper elevations, the Snowbird snotel now sits at 33.8" of water equivalent (black line below). This is 142% of median for the day. That's a pretty healthy snowpack. Last year on this day we were at 40.3", but we shouldn't make comparisons with last year. That said, a look at the purple line below shows that it was about now that Mother Nature hit the boosters and things really took off last year. </div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidQAT96h9WzI4Luj11cma9WCyN2viQNcnPN1U2CbqlQ1QRamElFOX1lh0A3mEjtkJw_omeXoOwGNwUwUD4aKbWldTL8e60iMuSqUv-NKljeberxOPdFn4X8V7oQNHejLXTOgAz97q7Bt_b3DLiHWD_qqM6wG8XT95GjI8RYqmuawEgbsW5ep2ABGwU9y4/s2194/Screenshot%202024-02-21%20at%208.12.45%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="2194" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidQAT96h9WzI4Luj11cma9WCyN2viQNcnPN1U2CbqlQ1QRamElFOX1lh0A3mEjtkJw_omeXoOwGNwUwUD4aKbWldTL8e60iMuSqUv-NKljeberxOPdFn4X8V7oQNHejLXTOgAz97q7Bt_b3DLiHWD_qqM6wG8XT95GjI8RYqmuawEgbsW5ep2ABGwU9y4/w640-h246/Screenshot%202024-02-21%20at%208.12.45%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: NRCS</td></tr></tbody></table><br />We'll see what happens this year. If you are like me and you don't consider it over until it's over, we are at 81% of the median peak. I'll feel better for runoff when we get to 100%, although one has to feel good about where we are right now. Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-82367741822507585792024-02-20T10:02:00.004-07:002024-02-20T10:02:47.378-07:00Stop Calling Everything an Atmospheric River<p>The phrase atmospheric river is a relatively new one. The phrase "tropospheric river" was first used in a paper by Reginald Newell and coauthors in 1992 to describe narrow "filaments" of strong water vapor flux or transport in the atomphsere. Then in a 1994 paper, Newell and Yong Zhu termed these features atmospheric rivers, a phrase that has caught on and is now widely used not only amongst scientists, but also with the general public. Hereafter, I will abbreviate atmospheric river to AR for convenience.</p><p>In Utah, however, the phrase is being used to describe many situations that do no reach AR criteria, including today. </p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">ATMOSPHERIC RIVER: Another subtropical train of moisture will move in today. Brunt of the valley rain will be This afternoon into Wednesday morning. Rain totals look healthy and mountain snow totals will be around 1-2 FEET for the Cottonwoods. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/utwx?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#utwx</a> <a href="https://t.co/XciepWzobZ">pic.twitter.com/XciepWzobZ</a></p>— Matthew Johnson (@KSL_Matt) <a href="https://twitter.com/KSL_Matt/status/1759959033702924426?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 20, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>ARs are defined and categorized using a variable called integrated vapor transport or IVT. Think of it as a measure of how much water vapor is moving through a one meter wide curtain that extends from the Earth's surface to very high altitudes every second. The larger the value, the more water vapor is moving through this curtain. </p><p>Scientists have developed a categorization scale for ARs to help describe their strengths and impacts. In this scale, <i>the minimum IVT needed for an AR is 250 kg/m/s</i>. That would be the equivalent of 250 kg of water vapor moving through that curtain every second. The scale uses both IVT and its duration to categorize atmospheric rivers. At 250 kg/m/s, an AR would be categorized as either category 1 or category 2, the latter if it were to persist for more than 48 hours. Impacts are expected to be primarily beneficial (e.g., soaking rains, rain or snow for water resources, etc.) but potentially become hazardous if long duration. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsDU3SvIHps6k4jd0uSTx81wx9ja6sUohFAsJXU8mBOz3l2ndsPRGnVdbiDMOZAw7jiwb9qnIMUucTnCucFjdXQ2GuanVYbbF2QVdNhlqSdh_UkvVy_5csTr6rQ99_tKmxlwGH_16Y1-Tinf-xGvfQD2jEdSradon8XZ0hmweyJWWC7lbX7J6lrADbKq0/s835/ar.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="525" data-original-width="835" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsDU3SvIHps6k4jd0uSTx81wx9ja6sUohFAsJXU8mBOz3l2ndsPRGnVdbiDMOZAw7jiwb9qnIMUucTnCucFjdXQ2GuanVYbbF2QVdNhlqSdh_UkvVy_5csTr6rQ99_tKmxlwGH_16Y1-Tinf-xGvfQD2jEdSradon8XZ0hmweyJWWC7lbX7J6lrADbKq0/w640-h402/ar.jpeg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/2/bams-d-18-0023.1.xml">Ralph et al. (2019)</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>ARs can have much higher IVTs, in some cases exceeding 1250 kg/m/s. At these higher levels, ARs are more hazardous, especially if they are long duration. </div><div><br /></div><div>ARs reaching northern Utah are much weaker than when they made landfall on the Pacific coast. This is because they loose a good deal of water vapor as they move inland and produce precipitation, especially over mountain ranges like the Cascades or Sierra Nevada. Most ARs we observe here are weak, category 1 ARs. They primarily have beneficial impacts, but they can produce hazards related to flooding and avalanches.</div><div><br /></div><div>On weather.utah.edu, our four-panel "synoptic" diagnostic includes an analyisis of IVT at lower right. The GFS forecast for this morning showed weak AR1-level IVT of ≥ 250 kg/m/s on the SoCal coast and near Las Vegas, but elsewhere, IVT was below such levels. Over northern Utah, in many areas we were below 100 kg/m/s. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8ELfS0J6J2fIjg1ygJKj0K5veE3VT9wFCux-opxcn0AThVfFcjq72NTygQwW2bN8XDuk6pqbkRBR8Q6lI7ww2GrYL63EQMKl97-2QsntBqONa-mbKY2NvKF64k50qn32d3bGJW86zEEyeCSc3ixNA73RS91zO16vOgdAD0Nni34IvDs0NxCXI7Q0iIsQ/s1875/GFSSY_WE2024022006F012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1246" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8ELfS0J6J2fIjg1ygJKj0K5veE3VT9wFCux-opxcn0AThVfFcjq72NTygQwW2bN8XDuk6pqbkRBR8Q6lI7ww2GrYL63EQMKl97-2QsntBqONa-mbKY2NvKF64k50qn32d3bGJW86zEEyeCSc3ixNA73RS91zO16vOgdAD0Nni34IvDs0NxCXI7Q0iIsQ/w640-h426/GFSSY_WE2024022006F012.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>By 0000 UTC 21 Feb (5 PM MST Tuesday) we are still below 250 kg/m/s. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6CyhT_MZLYQsfXW3DtxdlW8_ZDgTWCAT5hmtjEMLyj7MbPgCOQ8aSdOmaYop8hJAUFsQsHgxrDkviAJepq3EbiebCEPQIw_EK2UXocRbPatIpmCChaVbK4emTfBHNSgtk-evhjfRM1teK1Eqjvd_PMXJaZfOb-LzL8ugeWjZ3L-G1Pmhh82VmOom9PIc/s1875/GFSSY_WE2024022006F018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1246" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6CyhT_MZLYQsfXW3DtxdlW8_ZDgTWCAT5hmtjEMLyj7MbPgCOQ8aSdOmaYop8hJAUFsQsHgxrDkviAJepq3EbiebCEPQIw_EK2UXocRbPatIpmCChaVbK4emTfBHNSgtk-evhjfRM1teK1Eqjvd_PMXJaZfOb-LzL8ugeWjZ3L-G1Pmhh82VmOom9PIc/w640-h426/GFSSY_WE2024022006F018.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>What we are seeing are the remnants of what was a weak AR on the California coast (it may have reached category 2 for a time while it was moving across central California), but it is no longer an AR. </div><div><br /></div><div>My concern about calling these weak features ARs is that it will condition the public to not take them seriously. Ideally, we should not be using the phrase AR to describe today's weather in northern Utah. It just doesn't meet the criterion. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-25989803199674895012024-02-17T08:28:00.004-07:002024-02-17T08:28:24.049-07:00Limitations of Alta–Zermatt Comparisons<p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-O8MvJWRFvD3xwX2Ap0bJneazYgK-mJWzd4T5CMg61W0dAcpdqJeWeNBnqaHODHb0UNz6PHagrHkPnElK6kjjLZGHnPlq2-hq1oj7C5CchD2hd0WpfLcq6QN5ujLYmL-K7pqayLCP7ccQowHwNArlB9dutbgKFkAosptr8bp_9Xxu3wOBDk4VZ7QpqUw/s3425/PXL_20230616_052934109.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2569" data-original-width="3425" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-O8MvJWRFvD3xwX2Ap0bJneazYgK-mJWzd4T5CMg61W0dAcpdqJeWeNBnqaHODHb0UNz6PHagrHkPnElK6kjjLZGHnPlq2-hq1oj7C5CchD2hd0WpfLcq6QN5ujLYmL-K7pqayLCP7ccQowHwNArlB9dutbgKFkAosptr8bp_9Xxu3wOBDk4VZ7QpqUw/w640-h480/PXL_20230616_052934109.jpeg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Zermatt, Switzerland</td></tr></tbody></table><br />It is not unusual to hear people make comparisons between Alta and Zermatt when it comes to transportation. One often hears statements like "Alta should be like Zermatt" or "we should have a train like Zermatt." This article is not to argue against transportation upgrades (I am likely supportive of a well designed mountain transportation system for the Wasatch), but to instead discuss some of the limitations of these comparisons and the unique challenges facing Little Cottonwood Canyon. </p><p>Alta is a small town. The population for the 2010 census was 383. This dropped to 228 for the 2020 census. I'm not sure how confident to be in either of these numbers, but we are talking about less than 400 permanent residents. It has five lodges [Snowpine (58 rooms), Alta (57 rooms), Goldminer's Daughter (89 rooms), Alta Peruvian (80 rooms), Rustler (85 rooms)], some condos, and some additional rental units. Down the road, Snowbird reports that they have 882 total rooms. I'm not sure what the total lodging capacity is in upper Little Cottonwood (perhaps someone has it), but let's say it is around 2,500 people. </p><p>At the base of Little Cottonwood, Salt Lake County has a population of almost 1.2 million people. The Wasatch Front has a population of 2 million people. </p><p>Zermatt is often called a village, but it is really a small city. It has a modest population of 5,733, but also 106 hotels with 7,310 beds (<a href="https://www.zermatt.ch/en/content/download/5298/131222/version/62/file/Destination+infrastructure.pdf">https://www.zermatt.ch/en/content/download/5298/131222/version/62/file/Destination+infrastructure.pdf</a>). There are also apartments which add several thousand additional beds. In 2023, Zermat saw about 2.25 million overnight stays at hotels and rental apartments (<a href="https://www.zermatt.ch/en/content/download/73156/3346478/version/3/file/2023_Jahresbericht+ZT+-+Web+klein.pdf">https://www.zermatt.ch/en/content/download/73156/3346478/version/3/file/2023_Jahresbericht+ZT+-+Web+klein.pdf</a>). </p><p>At the base of the Matter Valley that leads to Zermatt is Visp, with a population of 6,777. The entire Valais Canton, which includes Visp and Zermatt and extends from the southeast shore of Lake Geneva to the Furkapass in south central Switzerland has a population of 343,000.</p><p>So, consider the difference between big ski days at the two resorts. At Alta (and Snowbird), most of the skiers have to get to the resort during an intense morning rush hour. At Zermatt, most of the skiers are already at the resort. They arrive in a less intense pulse the prior day and evening. </p><p>My point here isn't to argue against a mountain transportation system, but to highlight important differences between Alta and Zermatt that should be recognized.</p>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-85665015192665393872024-02-16T12:11:00.004-07:002024-02-17T13:55:06.963-07:00World Cup XC Returns to the US<p><b>Correction</b>: Total screwup on my part. The times for the races indicated below are Central European Time not Central US Time. You would think that I would know that (duh!). Thus the races aren't in the evening, but in the morning and early afternoon local time. Apologies!<br /></p><p>World cup cross-country skiing returns to the US for the first time in 23 years with racing this Saturday and Sunday.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNHsWQFgRPKNDK02uDh8o2PKXgnJtrYGxcPbLgqwSSB-EHDtLAXBdxIOO2-79VT_J9Lmlerp_IFVDvbNLCImRLUQVM3fqZNZKMExRwEH5dTvHppKTpj2XG7Z85TFjrXx4GMlSCku7Wql2gwL_x_7y7zcuJQAuQjUexAPTgiP-eZHD0BEboqx9mowQ-MEE/s1350/xc.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1350" data-original-width="1080" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNHsWQFgRPKNDK02uDh8o2PKXgnJtrYGxcPbLgqwSSB-EHDtLAXBdxIOO2-79VT_J9Lmlerp_IFVDvbNLCImRLUQVM3fqZNZKMExRwEH5dTvHppKTpj2XG7Z85TFjrXx4GMlSCku7Wql2gwL_x_7y7zcuJQAuQjUexAPTgiP-eZHD0BEboqx9mowQ-MEE/w512-h640/xc.jpeg" width="512" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: @FISCrossCountry</td></tr></tbody></table><p>More than 30,000 fans are expected for the races, which will be held at <a href="https://www.loppet.org/tt/trails/" target="_blank">Theodore Wirth Regional Park</a>. In fact, the event is sold out.</p><p>Snowfall in the Minneapolis area has been scant this season, but Mother Nature provided several inches of natural snow this week that will help beautify the event (which could have gone on with artificial snow). Forecasts suggest a dry weekend although there will be some wind for the Saturday sprints. Race-time temps should be 25-30F each day.</p><p>On the Women's side, the US team is having an amazing season. Jessie Diggins, who worked to bring the World Cup to Minnesota, is leading the overall standings and the weekend races are all in skate, which is her best technique. Rosie Brennan is fourth in the overall standings and also threat to win or podium. Sophia Laukli is also having a strong season. </p><p>On the men's side, the Norwegians are better than dominating, but Ben Ogden and Gus Schumacher are having good seasons and will surely bring their best. </p><p>It is my understanding that the races will be streamed live on Peacock, NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app. I'm currently laid up with COVID, so I'll be watching for sure. </p>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-51641459715195482252024-02-11T09:26:00.006-07:002024-02-12T08:06:02.622-07:00Snowfall Extremes at Alta, Part II<p>This is the second part of a blogstorm examining a new paper by Michael Wasserstein and I examining snowfall extremes at Alta. The paper was just published in what is known as early online release and is available at <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0206.1/MWR-D-23-0206.1.xml">https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0206.1/MWR-D-23-0206.1.xml</a>, but may be paywalled if you don't work at an institution with a license for American Meteorological Society journals or have an American Meteorological Society membership (apologies). However, we are summarizing the key findings in this blogstorm. </p><p>In <a href="https://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2024/02/snowfall-extremes-at-alta-part-i.html" target="_blank">Part I</a>, we examined the relationships between flow direction and heavy snowfall at Alta, highlighting that heavy snowfall can occur from a wide range of flow directions, but most commonly for SSW or WNW flow for Liquid Precipitation Equivalent (LPE) and the latter for snowfall amount. The bias toward WNW flow for snowfall amount reflects that such flows are typically colder and feature higher snow-to-liquid ratios, which means you get more snow out of a unit of water. We also identified seven key synoptic patterns for generating heavy snowfall. </p><p>Here we examine the relationship between Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT, a common metric used to identify atmospheric rivers) and heavy snowfall at Alta. Unlike what one might find in the Sierra Nevada or Cascades, this relationship is actually quite complex or, as I like to call it, fickle. </p><p>To illustrate this, we looked at the time-integrated IVT (or TIVT) during extreme precipitation periods. IVT is an instantaneous measure of the horizontal transport of water vapor over a given location. TIVT is the total horizontal transport of water vapor over a given period (in this case 12 hours). </p><div>The figures below present the TIVT for the snow amount and LPE extremes, with direction consistent with the 700-mb (crest level) wind and vapor transport direction. An IVT of 250 kg/m/s, generally used as the low-end threshold for an atmospheric river, yields a TIVT of 1.1x10e7 kg/m (Editors note: This value was updated from the original post to correct an incorrect value), which is near the outer circle of these figures. These figures show that true AR conditions for a 12-hour period at Alta are extremely rare. In addition, many snow amount and LPE extremes occur for TIVTs well below those associated with ARs. </div><div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZSm5d-DP6yZRG86KkmEOnolSHeP5mpx_oifAgk7YfYTHSceJbxrNmz37sLgwqYt1cSYYLxGXB5Q_fKK8H6tjUqmk4aoycNdXzA4K-BvaSxPlnUQn_jyJ33JX5YODJWMA-ZjDNBkKPJClaOggQj-p492Owp3reHvBKUTuQtqjtaxRA_aNXW6gBFwEv0g0/s1082/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2012.19.13%E2%80%AFPM.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="561" data-original-width="1082" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZSm5d-DP6yZRG86KkmEOnolSHeP5mpx_oifAgk7YfYTHSceJbxrNmz37sLgwqYt1cSYYLxGXB5Q_fKK8H6tjUqmk4aoycNdXzA4K-BvaSxPlnUQn_jyJ33JX5YODJWMA-ZjDNBkKPJClaOggQj-p492Owp3reHvBKUTuQtqjtaxRA_aNXW6gBFwEv0g0/w640-h332/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2012.19.13%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0206.1/MWR-D-23-0206.1.xml">Wasserstein and Steenburgh (2024)</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>So we decided to take this a step further and look at how much of the vapor that is transported over Alta is converted into precipitation during the snowfall amount and LPE extremes. We call this the Local Precipitation Efficiency. Consistent with the analysis above, this efficiency is especially high during WNW or NW flow. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4PLiVy3-DcszVGtRp8_IH6UE6gwvtjKhuVR8O99H84xQEcYf-522MlHOo5GRccaEpoBNqgMr07j4p9kwkg2DPsaSH3fYVSaq7WZXnHayC9ZT_gPj6VkLzpAB100raUtlXE33DzCPNrB6aKe9614dG8aQPSLtt00ejS8Tz2gRVWtpf8zuGl4C6C2OtLec/s736/Screenshot%202024-02-11%20at%208.58.58%E2%80%AFAM.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="343" data-original-width="736" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4PLiVy3-DcszVGtRp8_IH6UE6gwvtjKhuVR8O99H84xQEcYf-522MlHOo5GRccaEpoBNqgMr07j4p9kwkg2DPsaSH3fYVSaq7WZXnHayC9ZT_gPj6VkLzpAB100raUtlXE33DzCPNrB6aKe9614dG8aQPSLtt00ejS8Tz2gRVWtpf8zuGl4C6C2OtLec/w640-h298/Screenshot%202024-02-11%20at%208.58.58%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0206.1/MWR-D-23-0206.1.xml">Wasserstein and Steenburgh (2024)</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br />So those northwesterly flow storms get a lot out of a little. </div><div><br /></div><div>Finally, we decided to look at what happens when the IVT is high at Alta. Given that true AR conditions with IVT ≥ 250 kg/m/s are extremely rare at Alta, we lowered the IVT threshold to 200 kg/m/s. During the 23 cool seasons we examined, there were 112 periods (about 5 per year) in which the mid-point IVT was ≥ 200 kg/m/s. Of these, <i>only 19 produced an LPE extreme at Alta and 37 produced no precipitation at all</i>. These are the the highest local IVT events a year although some can go big, some are total busts. </div><div><br /></div><div>All of this indicates that one needs to avoid what I'll call AR-myopia at Alta. Snowfall extremes, especially in NW flow, can occur with relatively low IVT. Locally high IVT (≥ 200 kg/m/s) can sometimes produce a big snowfall amount or LPE event, but there are times when it produces little to no precipitation. The correlation between IVT and precipitation at Alta simply is not high enough to justify using IVT in isolation for precipitation prediction. </div><div><br /></div><div>To that point, we also breakdown the differences between high IVT events that produce an LPE extreme and those that don't produce LPE. The former typically are colder, feature higher relative humidities, and stronger large-scale ascent. The latter is sometimes referred to by meteorologists as "forcing" and would be produced by, for example, and upper-level trough and/or surface front. Essentially, you need an environment that favors precipitation generation. During high IVT, forced ascent over the central Wasatch, by itself, is not sufficient to do the job if the airmass is not close to saturation and there is a lack of large scale forcing for precipitation. </div><div><br /></div><div>Thanks for reading!</div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-38004107035508181072024-02-09T12:34:00.002-07:002024-02-09T12:34:44.496-07:00Snowfall Extremes at Alta, Part I<p>Michael Wasserstein and I have a new paper out examining our favorite research topic: Snowfall extremes at Alta. The paper was just published in what is known as early online release and is available at <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0206.1/MWR-D-23-0206.1.xml">https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0206.1/MWR-D-23-0206.1.xml</a>. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnrKZxiXNxF6dfgys0LGgDaw7WJ6FuQZZtZzd3rfRgh5GxID6l_0QcSb947DDr4nrGSzNhy1gtwpJ1hkPgN6ziUo9SWGth4eJEDUtKQhmSgjZQQtgkupD8zesgsgHeswBdb7bHuG9wohpKhj3RlYZnYAHkJ6ZDVIfp7rowkM7cPLkMSq-hQcrkH5MZ_YY/s3226/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2011.35.26%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1998" data-original-width="3226" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnrKZxiXNxF6dfgys0LGgDaw7WJ6FuQZZtZzd3rfRgh5GxID6l_0QcSb947DDr4nrGSzNhy1gtwpJ1hkPgN6ziUo9SWGth4eJEDUtKQhmSgjZQQtgkupD8zesgsgHeswBdb7bHuG9wohpKhj3RlYZnYAHkJ6ZDVIfp7rowkM7cPLkMSq-hQcrkH5MZ_YY/w640-h396/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2011.35.26%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>It may be paywalled if you don't work at an institution with a license for American Meteorological Society journals or have an American Meteorological Society membership (apologies). However, we'll hit some of the highlights in this special two part Wasatch Weather Weenies blogstorm, beginning here with Part I. </div><div><br /></div>The inspiration for this work was a paper by Larry Dunn, a long-time meteorologist and avid skier, that was published as a NOAA Technical Memorandum in 1983. <div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNtTKiC1G19HeVNVYVSyYpKqU1GKHh6PGYOb_VwgxU0j5xDaDyp2lKpwcg1c9I-bFgIirXL3fU4rG5sg-kyZ1wZd5pV9CWniLkKF5EIn6wuK854g7yJ_6OvapVWEVww-j4RXghiAv8KdarosPFWFzjQR29SRHpD-sAfDRCmuGK9ymoXLlKzzf34-E6ywE/s2522/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2011.39.30%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2522" data-original-width="1918" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNtTKiC1G19HeVNVYVSyYpKqU1GKHh6PGYOb_VwgxU0j5xDaDyp2lKpwcg1c9I-bFgIirXL3fU4rG5sg-kyZ1wZd5pV9CWniLkKF5EIn6wuK854g7yJ_6OvapVWEVww-j4RXghiAv8KdarosPFWFzjQR29SRHpD-sAfDRCmuGK9ymoXLlKzzf34-E6ywE/w486-h640/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2011.39.30%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="486" /></a></div><br />Many of the relationships between flow (especially wind direction) and local snowfall enhancement at various locations in the Wasatch Range that are used today are based on this paper. </div><div><br /></div><div>Michael and I thought we would do an update, focused on Alta, and using modern atmospheric analyses, diagnostics, and observations. Using data collected and generously provided by the Alta Ski Patrol, we focused on large 12-hour snowfall events, defined in two ways. The first was based on snowfall amount. The second based on the liquid precipitation equivalent (LPE) of snowfall. Large here means in the top 5% (known as the 95th percentile) with at least 2.54 cm (1 inch) of snow for snowfall or 2.54 mm (0.1 inch) of water for LPE. This 95th percentile works out to be 30.5 cm (12 inches) for snowfall amount and 27.9 mm (1.1 inches) of water for LPE. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6M1JRSdK4KgLqY1ZOVDgEpXpEIB8S17AOzpa-TNgyWHoeq-Vjn8HFgOV4rXMi-ylAi2XfhVXlMzmKO9QP0IRXvGCV8gLBfB77sTrCZHmoZSM-bfgKaifUIHgvG9fF4wPSajmBP4hp-_EzBdP67yEydnMXGMfQ5sNagtFs3BPTQYxBZiKOBcsVzlP-cN0/s1510/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2011.45.09%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="1510" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6M1JRSdK4KgLqY1ZOVDgEpXpEIB8S17AOzpa-TNgyWHoeq-Vjn8HFgOV4rXMi-ylAi2XfhVXlMzmKO9QP0IRXvGCV8gLBfB77sTrCZHmoZSM-bfgKaifUIHgvG9fF4wPSajmBP4hp-_EzBdP67yEydnMXGMfQ5sNagtFs3BPTQYxBZiKOBcsVzlP-cN0/w640-h324/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2011.45.09%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0206.1/MWR-D-23-0206.1.xml">Wasserstein and Steenburgh (2024)</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>Below is a classic figure from Dunn (1983) illustrating the 700-mb (about 10,000 ft) wind speed and direction during heavy precipitation events at Alta. He used 1" of water equivalent in 24 hours for the threshold for heavy events and presented his results in a hand-drawn diagram that meteorologists sometimes refer to as a wind rose. This figure identified the high frequency of heavy events in northwesterly flow. Note also that events peak at a speed of around 10 m/s (about 20 knots)</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg02UteY7WKfG25APNwob0_5qJMalDcrzgraFyHSvixE7ACEHdgBx-Z-5SsufGZ_rIvP3ROPeH8aCGEtD5H9HghsZ0k8YcgvV_hb_tU6USDF-BhK2MRIL12cuTaW69JiQ0dZgn6VVFOFXqfM3NqmMuCfSGO2RKc49q5i_O-8uk7nfzDKpGapZ_59zM2NU/s1914/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2011.54.14%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1914" data-original-width="1658" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg02UteY7WKfG25APNwob0_5qJMalDcrzgraFyHSvixE7ACEHdgBx-Z-5SsufGZ_rIvP3ROPeH8aCGEtD5H9HghsZ0k8YcgvV_hb_tU6USDF-BhK2MRIL12cuTaW69JiQ0dZgn6VVFOFXqfM3NqmMuCfSGO2RKc49q5i_O-8uk7nfzDKpGapZ_59zM2NU/w554-h640/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2011.54.14%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="554" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: Dunn (1983)</td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>Below is our updated take using our 1.1" in 12-h threshold and enabling comparisons with climatology (all periods during the cool season), all snow events, all LPE events, and all of the extremes. In figure d, you can see the high frequency of 700-mb flow from the WNW and NW during snow amount extremes peaking at near 10 m/s. If you look carefully though, you'll see a secondary maximum for flow from the SSW. For LPE, there is are two clear maxima centered on the SSW and WNW. You will also notice that snow and LPE extremes have occurred across a wide range of flow directions from SE to WNW (or even N for the former). </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsr8oLmC05e1LUCbzwL0KG5cZm8VAXCLA68emVdBqr4PXm_EuAj0A2As9NkYQVfcr9N7yG9Qa6CbJ13w7kdDUEI5Gme7JHMYH6oWYiAJErPsip91gDD7tU_xCdnqvgiIY-2Uaab-LfgzdjEbhx9pLASwS0dsod9kUn2QsO0iT0pWFMv8IDmW5lL7gs69Y/s2126/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2011.58.49%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2126" data-original-width="1568" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsr8oLmC05e1LUCbzwL0KG5cZm8VAXCLA68emVdBqr4PXm_EuAj0A2As9NkYQVfcr9N7yG9Qa6CbJ13w7kdDUEI5Gme7JHMYH6oWYiAJErPsip91gDD7tU_xCdnqvgiIY-2Uaab-LfgzdjEbhx9pLASwS0dsod9kUn2QsO0iT0pWFMv8IDmW5lL7gs69Y/w472-h640/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2011.58.49%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="472" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0206.1/MWR-D-23-0206.1.xml">Wasserstein and Steenburgh (2024)</a></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div>A few key points to take from this figure. First, snowfall extremes can happen for a wide range of flow directions and wind speeds. This is why I like to emphasize the great diversity of storms that affect Alta and not discount storms just because they don't have NW flow. If they dynamics are right, Alta can get it. Nevertheless, a high frequency of large LPE events occurs for flow form the SW and WNW. This is known as a bimodal distribution. For snow though, the WNW maximum is much stronger. This reflects the influence of <i>snow-to-liquid ratio</i>. The WNW flow storms tend to be colder, and produce more snow per unit of LPE, so that flow direction lights up more frequently for snowfall amount extremes. <div><div><br /></div><div>We also identified seven major synoptic storm types contributing to snowfall extremes at Alta. Four were associated with enhanced integrated vapor transport (IVT) penetrating inland from the Pacific coast from the south (SIVT), southwest (SWIVT), west (WIVT), or northwest (NWIVT). </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXEm4OH9QAxNZYqae1lMudftO7INAix7-qRG6ts42Ko65Xd4sHtbA-Ae5WcJojue47qLHxSCFJk30gpKnZkEoiisE8CppVM6knwtjz4GkRLEUrXFMdgWm6ydnm6SLrvZQqf0S_puJr9IRBTf_AmlNfw7lKkrTyzcbITpT2tL_eIVedveOB8aiK2OMkmrA/s2846/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2012.10.24%E2%80%AFPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2632" data-original-width="2846" height="592" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXEm4OH9QAxNZYqae1lMudftO7INAix7-qRG6ts42Ko65Xd4sHtbA-Ae5WcJojue47qLHxSCFJk30gpKnZkEoiisE8CppVM6knwtjz4GkRLEUrXFMdgWm6ydnm6SLrvZQqf0S_puJr9IRBTf_AmlNfw7lKkrTyzcbITpT2tL_eIVedveOB8aiK2OMkmrA/w640-h592/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2012.10.24%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0206.1/MWR-D-23-0206.1.xml">Wasserstein and Steenburgh (2024)</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br />IVT is often used to identify atmospheric rivers, but this turns out to be a complex matter that we will talk about in greater depth in Part II. <div><br /></div><div>The other three patterns were northwesterly post frontal flow events (of course), frontal (associated with a stationary or cold front), and cold-core lows with southwesterly flow. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjH1-TBV_4MuwiQ1TkY0vq0lq7kMz9oeiuNS_9CVRZ6DrDhnxEkDxNRmIZp7rxUtLuPrHfQf6ae8y6d9xLglSoKVXxNRZLuSD4efr-XO51Juicr65e3ZhL6zOdwG1j-O_RLVCrZJFR_HVi2iJZrZI1gNQ6ObNi7CxeUpbpOmGszvadMlQUofT37hXz1n4/s1141/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2012.13.36%E2%80%AFPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1141" data-original-width="520" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjH1-TBV_4MuwiQ1TkY0vq0lq7kMz9oeiuNS_9CVRZ6DrDhnxEkDxNRmIZp7rxUtLuPrHfQf6ae8y6d9xLglSoKVXxNRZLuSD4efr-XO51Juicr65e3ZhL6zOdwG1j-O_RLVCrZJFR_HVi2iJZrZI1gNQ6ObNi7CxeUpbpOmGszvadMlQUofT37hXz1n4/w292-h640/Screenshot%202024-02-09%20at%2012.13.36%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="292" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0206.1/MWR-D-23-0206.1.xml">Wasserstein and Steenburgh (2024)</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>We did not distinguish between northwesterly post frontal flow events with and without lake effect as that would have been another major effort. We'll let you sort through the radar data to do that!</div></div><div><br /></div><div>That's enough for now. We'll dig into this further in a forthcoming Part II post. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-66814773009335383422024-02-05T08:43:00.004-07:002024-02-05T08:43:25.574-07:00Complicated Week Ahead<p>I suspect the skiing yesterday was very good. I had to sit it out due to a balky back. Hope you were more fortunate. </p><p>The big weather story today is really from SoCal where some big rainfall numbers are coming in from the LA Basin and environs. Below are 24-hour totals as of this morning with seven sites in the Santa Monica Mountains and Beverly Hills coming in with more than 10 inches of rain. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimkIXU_JcP3YgEhwGsRt5fhwyEJtaNfafmNZB2NcereUtGpJ41RUhFM9wg14wv2KsKBLBWygozNoflptIXJnc_65vvWiQCjqP6lVmeQRUzE9TBqAXkIeMI0A3PKYCAgYqs6UVLg8eDNRNiSNdpl-rsTG1_aBo7FBnlRDqs2E52Si9MF2CogoYNCnBRuHI/s4124/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-05%20at%208.19.37%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2578" data-original-width="4124" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimkIXU_JcP3YgEhwGsRt5fhwyEJtaNfafmNZB2NcereUtGpJ41RUhFM9wg14wv2KsKBLBWygozNoflptIXJnc_65vvWiQCjqP6lVmeQRUzE9TBqAXkIeMI0A3PKYCAgYqs6UVLg8eDNRNiSNdpl-rsTG1_aBo7FBnlRDqs2E52Si9MF2CogoYNCnBRuHI/w640-h400/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-05%20at%208.19.37%20AM.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The analysis below shows the situation at 0000 UTC 5 Feb (5 PM MST Sunday) with a deep cyclone just off the central California coast and strong integrated vapor transport directed toward the Santa Monica and San Gabriel Mountains. It was a great recipe for heavy orographic precipitation development. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaKCP5eTJAt8nvEDeLIVTG-f2TWRk5AFV5E7Lr5oHVT8fSS9utaxoMsNdmOfo8AEB2Lb4kLpCmPCcKWFmjZcK-bPQag0zQUNkPZ24_4NPFDJiabP-VXRKknbC-h-1wXrLiz2r4q3QbLknYCdZnGAsCe2T2DcZY02AwtS2_EXgAHO3HgI0aqPPGcZ07OHg/s1875/GFSSY_WE2024020500F000.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1246" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaKCP5eTJAt8nvEDeLIVTG-f2TWRk5AFV5E7Lr5oHVT8fSS9utaxoMsNdmOfo8AEB2Lb4kLpCmPCcKWFmjZcK-bPQag0zQUNkPZ24_4NPFDJiabP-VXRKknbC-h-1wXrLiz2r4q3QbLknYCdZnGAsCe2T2DcZY02AwtS2_EXgAHO3HgI0aqPPGcZ07OHg/w640-h426/GFSSY_WE2024020500F000.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Utah will be seeing bits and pieces of that storm as the trough moves through the western US. As I looked at things this morning, I had no idea how to summarize the next few days. The system is so broken up over the western interior that it's hard to summarize the timing and intensity of when things will happen with any confidence. Perhaps the simplest description is to say we will see warm and windy conditions through tomorrow then a gradual transition to cooler weather (but not cold) midweek, with periods of precipitation at times.<br /><br />The GFS forecast below provides one perspective. Note the forecast temperatures in the mid 20s at Alta-Collins with wet-bulb zero levels between about 6000 and 7000 feet through Tuesday night when temperatures begin to decline. The GFS produces some precipitation today, late Tuesday, and then late Wednesday and Thursday totaling a bit over 1.2" of water and 17" of snow, which will be fairly high density today and tomorrow before transitioning to lower density on Wednesday. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnHgwS9LxP3cauFEYounXS1NgBB60amJRWqbxG65_85pziECzf2h4Kvd3802IRqHYqrmKJJrIWH7xGFySkKGH8owrb63u6sl_2r4rT-ZSeAV211Hoz-ADhnF5-rrjbdMaV3HxHOW8ztowJhB6QDtcx5PtBx0KaGiZ2WGgvpqg_jm8TetOywJMWvXRXL_M/s1400/gfslccforecast_2024020506.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1400" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnHgwS9LxP3cauFEYounXS1NgBB60amJRWqbxG65_85pziECzf2h4Kvd3802IRqHYqrmKJJrIWH7xGFySkKGH8owrb63u6sl_2r4rT-ZSeAV211Hoz-ADhnF5-rrjbdMaV3HxHOW8ztowJhB6QDtcx5PtBx0KaGiZ2WGgvpqg_jm8TetOywJMWvXRXL_M/w640-h548/gfslccforecast_2024020506.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>I don't have a lot of confidence in the timing and amounts for the bits and pieces as they come through. Timing and intensity are hard to anticipate with confidence, but the periods of snow will add up as the week goes on perhaps to 2 to 3" of water at the end of the work week. The mean of the downscaled NAEFS is a bit over 3" with most members in the 2-4" range. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvRJSQr7WqPxivo7E0Gu3CiEXwIdkDL7VDD-QBMTFJHfY2C7KmKN4jqzW9Q1YObkq_4vbe2w7qjXicfvmHmwqoIYcrrNFdHE__Q9s11eqr3c-T6N8EDaKT7JuFzxmF6hJKJ2hdZOLfOtyUSrUrSl8EUDMv6Tugcuapjr0CVIv3dcm5o0G6hFsfRO22vOA/s1864/NAEFSPL_CLN2024020500F168.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1252" data-original-width="1864" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvRJSQr7WqPxivo7E0Gu3CiEXwIdkDL7VDD-QBMTFJHfY2C7KmKN4jqzW9Q1YObkq_4vbe2w7qjXicfvmHmwqoIYcrrNFdHE__Q9s11eqr3c-T6N8EDaKT7JuFzxmF6hJKJ2hdZOLfOtyUSrUrSl8EUDMv6Tugcuapjr0CVIv3dcm5o0G6hFsfRO22vOA/w640-h430/NAEFSPL_CLN2024020500F168.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Keep an eye on forecasts and expect updates as this is an evolving situation with a lot of complexity. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-66517206007237219562024-02-02T07:06:00.002-07:002024-02-02T07:06:20.203-07:00Storm Update<p> Precipitation moved into northern Utah last night producing lowland rain and upland snow. As of 6 AM, the Alta-Collins automated sensor was up to 6" of moderately high density snow with .66" of water (11% water content). High density at this stage is good to smooth things out and bury the hard underlying surface. </p><p>Radar at 6:46 AM showed widespread precipitation over the Great Salt Lake and much of northwest Utah. The Cottonwoods and the central Wasatch were seeing some snowshowers, but were in a bit of a lull. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgixTxQFdz508YBSUV5n4c4a63QnPH1pBJDFous7CzNpg_ROWDMwMlKmUOnZ-HSi_BuG9OmRSJiQY6ZXwhsO055aEEnMdKFmwJeIEgnAi2gCJDqNAB6Woh6KSGUXodjmT1vmKszpAzLo7xV2vtma1qASC4N7coSetZFUrDB8OPPU3B-U3EgreF_qLtMZt8/s2738/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-02%20at%206.51.04%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2206" data-original-width="2738" height="516" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgixTxQFdz508YBSUV5n4c4a63QnPH1pBJDFous7CzNpg_ROWDMwMlKmUOnZ-HSi_BuG9OmRSJiQY6ZXwhsO055aEEnMdKFmwJeIEgnAi2gCJDqNAB6Woh6KSGUXodjmT1vmKszpAzLo7xV2vtma1qASC4N7coSetZFUrDB8OPPU3B-U3EgreF_qLtMZt8/w640-h516/Screen%20Shot%202024-02-02%20at%206.51.04%20AM.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>That lull should, however, be short lived as the trough moves in from the west. The HRRR, for example, keeps the central Wasatch on the edge of the action through about 1500 UTC (8 AM). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3c33Wn-XyyVHdydQ3gKaHJhOSwPVIJinhKLHa1JQNYHrxVo5vtc2fwnaaQ02mO2IMP0sDxcOMioh2c4E5y1xKqpB_46U7Hlqy4oekcaD5NB2QdFpIzdrQg9A5xFLIv4Hz2HKNMyNHCKgelMksiQ1vxgSjcqHfiwnEQGgpDlvKEJ0oKMzYFQelQmbTKjE/s1318/HRRRCR_WF2024020206F009.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1236" data-original-width="1318" height="600" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3c33Wn-XyyVHdydQ3gKaHJhOSwPVIJinhKLHa1JQNYHrxVo5vtc2fwnaaQ02mO2IMP0sDxcOMioh2c4E5y1xKqpB_46U7Hlqy4oekcaD5NB2QdFpIzdrQg9A5xFLIv4Hz2HKNMyNHCKgelMksiQ1vxgSjcqHfiwnEQGgpDlvKEJ0oKMzYFQelQmbTKjE/w640-h600/HRRRCR_WF2024020206F009.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>But then it swings the trough in with widespread precipitation over all of northern Utah by 1800 UTC (11 AM).</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ6dFvFWGjvQyhw-LYCqza1gnsBZ5OU-9I1Sez9S4DNUppGRgaK2H2FlV5DAI7JB1JbHbJUX6HVKSLx7xTDUEpDmMoP1jKvMNSbfmR177jiFM0AWYdbL4JmQLRt3WoUrt5U9ISfPsJYrVBQOT3skIm_mgVfIkrHTOalOiq4ys2yFELRLT951INhrlrJ2M/s1318/HRRRCR_WF2024020206F012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1236" data-original-width="1318" height="600" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ6dFvFWGjvQyhw-LYCqza1gnsBZ5OU-9I1Sez9S4DNUppGRgaK2H2FlV5DAI7JB1JbHbJUX6HVKSLx7xTDUEpDmMoP1jKvMNSbfmR177jiFM0AWYdbL4JmQLRt3WoUrt5U9ISfPsJYrVBQOT3skIm_mgVfIkrHTOalOiq4ys2yFELRLT951INhrlrJ2M/w640-h600/HRRRCR_WF2024020206F012.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">So, snow today, possibly heavy at times, especially with the trough passage. It is fairly mild out there this morning. It is 32F at Spruces campground, so the freezing level is around 7000-7500 feet (the snow level would be below this), but temperatures will gradually fall today. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The HRRR-derived forecast guidance for upper Little Cottonwood summarizes the situation quite well. The precipitation and snowfall time series on the bottom show the morning lull through about 8 or 9 AM, but then higher precipitation and snowfall rates during the day and into the evening, adding an additional 8" of snow or so to what has already fallen. The wet-bulb zero (upper right), gradually lowers throughout the day reaching about 6500 feet by 2 PM and 5500 feet by 8 PM. Thus, snow levels will be lowering to bench levels by late afternoon or evening. Finally, snow-to-liquid ratios gradually increase, although they hang in there around "average" values (~13:1) for this afternoon. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7C6hCa8G7MBeZuAVWRV2FU-u__x5_1lAfUYUd8NzVzpU35Hb8ziF6E7ZpAyZMeUN0uWrv9dO5HqbSJA6UlR8gcjtXT9vk2hyphenhyphen38ryFccVaO7pVxtrXCSbIwIgfY6vTFlEZvA072CtdKimX8G8YYZ8vKIY5Uba_EEPhTzkcwED1bsYmUrV5pxF9oC4PGA0/s1400/hrrrlccforecast_2024020206.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1400" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7C6hCa8G7MBeZuAVWRV2FU-u__x5_1lAfUYUd8NzVzpU35Hb8ziF6E7ZpAyZMeUN0uWrv9dO5HqbSJA6UlR8gcjtXT9vk2hyphenhyphen38ryFccVaO7pVxtrXCSbIwIgfY6vTFlEZvA072CtdKimX8G8YYZ8vKIY5Uba_EEPhTzkcwED1bsYmUrV5pxF9oC4PGA0/w640-h548/hrrrlccforecast_2024020206.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I like 6-12" more through 8PM tonight at which point we'll have to see if the post-frontal magic can kick in overnight. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-39759114862191865862024-01-31T09:10:00.002-07:002024-01-31T09:10:23.232-07:00Southern Track Goldilocks Storm<p>Snowfall in the central Wasatch has been scant in recent days with a ridge in charge, but that will be changing tomorrow. </p><p>Currently a monster cyclone lurks over the eastern Pacific with clouds along the accompanying cold front pushing into California. Hooray!</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGOugol1RCV804v7c_q0DQfLopjPOwZbBG2vKR4NulLoOj24npUa5zs3f-1ZWpqeIjdz7FJf6PzP-UUqkUTbtrjv_MMGNu6K23ic5fjKOLxXmJR9l60qN_FgqC38D7OpydcY883DspR35HoNGRji2QlqNeGM-nItyKKId6BoloWNFQWrQitteuGMlCunY/s1600/COD-GOES-West-continental-w_conus.13.20240131.154618-over=map-bars=none.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGOugol1RCV804v7c_q0DQfLopjPOwZbBG2vKR4NulLoOj24npUa5zs3f-1ZWpqeIjdz7FJf6PzP-UUqkUTbtrjv_MMGNu6K23ic5fjKOLxXmJR9l60qN_FgqC38D7OpydcY883DspR35HoNGRji2QlqNeGM-nItyKKId6BoloWNFQWrQitteuGMlCunY/w640-h360/COD-GOES-West-continental-w_conus.13.20240131.154618-over=map-bars=none.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>This is, however, a splitting storm so the GFS forecasts the primary 500-mb trough and so called "synoptic forcing" associated with the system (also referred to as large-scale lift as indicated by the red upward vertical velocity contours in the upper left-hand panel below) to be over northern Mexico, SoCal, and Arizona at 1200 UTC 2 Feb (5 AM MST Friday). <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiihGNzjkpUxOfLSnSt0r6mP5merodbifsWWGAg6odQs904vDtz2_fE-Jp2jADnFipVUEw67iY9INZOgTYPmUTfDSiPxQ3rTrvGBschZyXlyGeLuzkA67A9clLaPWBVtrIyqoGEYeG0HERQVfeSTAg10Ha9oItn0fA-pWrxQkQAFNOS_EHCAA15yQH3l6Q/s1875/GFSSY_WE2024013106F054.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1246" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiihGNzjkpUxOfLSnSt0r6mP5merodbifsWWGAg6odQs904vDtz2_fE-Jp2jADnFipVUEw67iY9INZOgTYPmUTfDSiPxQ3rTrvGBschZyXlyGeLuzkA67A9clLaPWBVtrIyqoGEYeG0HERQVfeSTAg10Ha9oItn0fA-pWrxQkQAFNOS_EHCAA15yQH3l6Q/w640-h426/GFSSY_WE2024013106F054.png" width="640" /></a></p>However enough of the frontal remnants and instability move through northern Utah that the GFS does give us periods of snow showers, including Friday night as the remnants of the front have moved downstream and we are in unstable northwesterly flow. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLtpGhyR8goG4WVDVSYBLiFfZv66157JmLBUz2hkbLu1rMUdGg1yCgS7wI9rTedzLYHZwG7cLhlMHrARFWBxiVTq9uAYQBvAu3dMg_DtqUti9HAZY_rkYzEwz8F00y990l5AHHX8LMSri4_aEkzF1ilK6viCP0XFd-J00-YMnB7x7akerVzYuHdhymGRw/s1875/GFSSY_WE2024013106F069.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1246" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLtpGhyR8goG4WVDVSYBLiFfZv66157JmLBUz2hkbLu1rMUdGg1yCgS7wI9rTedzLYHZwG7cLhlMHrARFWBxiVTq9uAYQBvAu3dMg_DtqUti9HAZY_rkYzEwz8F00y990l5AHHX8LMSri4_aEkzF1ilK6viCP0XFd-J00-YMnB7x7akerVzYuHdhymGRw/w640-h426/GFSSY_WE2024013106F069.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>A look at the GFS-derived guidance for Little Cottonwood shows mild conditions today, but transitioning to cooler by Saturday. The GFS puts out almost 1.2" of water by Saturday 11 AM MST Saturday, which converts to about 18" of snow. Given the decline in temperatures and wet-bulb zero levels, snow-to-liquid ratio is expected to increase over time resulting in a right-side-up snowfall. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-yFxIeq4e9bVwc8OZCnbWFH0_rAN0LABkK-0xdVNhCVdli8TaJ9q9K9-GpNdzFhfwjdpYoKzzX2JBwl_BsVB-a54TDocvouduUBAz2QbLtWCGSq0ZkptOGQbFVYmcBoN23on7ikxYZRbLCKPb5EWKvMcG7dd48mcH3EHJuS_-B_5tFCHqAxs1nYNPecw/s1400/gfslccforecast_2024013106.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1400" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-yFxIeq4e9bVwc8OZCnbWFH0_rAN0LABkK-0xdVNhCVdli8TaJ9q9K9-GpNdzFhfwjdpYoKzzX2JBwl_BsVB-a54TDocvouduUBAz2QbLtWCGSq0ZkptOGQbFVYmcBoN23on7ikxYZRbLCKPb5EWKvMcG7dd48mcH3EHJuS_-B_5tFCHqAxs1nYNPecw/w640-h548/gfslccforecast_2024013106.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>That said, it may take a bit to stack up as the 18" of snow the GFS produces in this case falls over a 36 hour period. </div><div><br /></div><div>A quick look at the downscaled SREF ensemble shows most members (23/26) producing 10" or more of snow for Alta-Collins through 0000 UTC 4 February (5 PM Saturday), with most of that falling by Saturday morning. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8U5_0uFpNltux2vmc3pTF61ei5aRxQcWgEcA5_YawA8kHRddFvBpo32lJACTPGeGvqg_FsBtqQMX2bgPaavoR4C6e4e_BHsKZWlg1f6_fyFrNjYtDXkhmrre62Cm7OuI8E-mOYe6ToC9jjICyCxpWlbHHx-TiRUqmQ1sW9E5XRT4ylQKxwfE8N-Zzl_0/s1857/SREFPL_CLN2024013109F087.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1857" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8U5_0uFpNltux2vmc3pTF61ei5aRxQcWgEcA5_YawA8kHRddFvBpo32lJACTPGeGvqg_FsBtqQMX2bgPaavoR4C6e4e_BHsKZWlg1f6_fyFrNjYtDXkhmrre62Cm7OuI8E-mOYe6ToC9jjICyCxpWlbHHx-TiRUqmQ1sW9E5XRT4ylQKxwfE8N-Zzl_0/w640-h444/SREFPL_CLN2024013109F087.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Although the splitting nature of the storm gives me some heartburn, by and large I think this looks like a decent storm in which we are likely to get 12-20" of right-side up bliss in upper Little Cottonwood by Saturday. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-79927690001108279172024-01-29T11:00:00.002-07:002024-01-29T11:00:14.637-07:00Statewide Temperatures in 2023<p>Following up on the prior post looking at record temperatures globally, let's zoom down to the state level.</p><p>The first half of 2023 was actually fairly cool statewide. In fact, the January–June mean temperature for the state was only 41.6F, making it the coldest January–June since 1984. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKr4qC5zpnwU9Edc7zfL8M_r2duFRmJLuTyDa_OpiAcsGekPIJ5vQjtAXGZaTyQUxYDrnMGboFax7Mz_PPKUSFu2LWUPnU8d_-cOe8Mn-tunYudtiCwGnC-HOUUrFCcorXOtslHOB_RRIShoP_MyRnSFCb5daXCqsifQj3KIUxP_colzMjAu9Vswm83io/s1116/Screenshot%202024-01-29%20at%2010.44.27%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="1116" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKr4qC5zpnwU9Edc7zfL8M_r2duFRmJLuTyDa_OpiAcsGekPIJ5vQjtAXGZaTyQUxYDrnMGboFax7Mz_PPKUSFu2LWUPnU8d_-cOe8Mn-tunYudtiCwGnC-HOUUrFCcorXOtslHOB_RRIShoP_MyRnSFCb5daXCqsifQj3KIUxP_colzMjAu9Vswm83io/w640-h274/Screenshot%202024-01-29%20at%2010.44.27%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: NCEI</td></tr></tbody></table><br />By midsummer, I was thinking we might be able to finish the year below the 20th century average temperature, which is something that hasn't been done statewide since 1993. However, the latter half of 2023 was quite warm. In fact, for July–December the statewide average temperature was 55.3F, which ties for the 3rd highest on record just behind 2020 and 2021.<div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0sNKg7fATCwO9MK3kFJB2MimQd5Ob7k7ohxawPv5tZ3iG4GOfPvpafF7wfct5JFH60OUgfIweRIv2xg5EK-XjB-3ZvttgQNtrPK6riZoIZiCM_O7bErt2J5sLqd1eUpTDa3oYCC5J5D2VTG2om0wGNck-YvvtIkTxKTawDGQZZEaX6l2wPwDtk_RzmPs/s1110/Screenshot%202024-01-29%20at%2010.46.01%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="1110" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0sNKg7fATCwO9MK3kFJB2MimQd5Ob7k7ohxawPv5tZ3iG4GOfPvpafF7wfct5JFH60OUgfIweRIv2xg5EK-XjB-3ZvttgQNtrPK6riZoIZiCM_O7bErt2J5sLqd1eUpTDa3oYCC5J5D2VTG2om0wGNck-YvvtIkTxKTawDGQZZEaX6l2wPwDtk_RzmPs/w640-h278/Screenshot%202024-01-29%20at%2010.46.01%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: NCEI</td></tr></tbody></table>As a result, 1993 remains the last year that Utah's statewide average temperature has been below the 20th century average (note that 2011 tied the 20th century average but was not below). <div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim49Ch9fUydHTWZTRtIoPNabobCjNNS3z02LI7TMt5EbExDJPkWJ0HMOUuISq_8nuT_P2I28dxaXk3vuYDxkgWAhqNeIdpMuQVWEfeG_WNKVNEqkRoywRMcEk-H-bcAvXcvyVIwUQOB1z9tWLZgT-kvhW4hYTdKpU2bAN_dayeGMXYrpbMAb_jlCv6MOA/s1114/Screenshot%202024-01-29%20at%2010.48.38%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="489" data-original-width="1114" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim49Ch9fUydHTWZTRtIoPNabobCjNNS3z02LI7TMt5EbExDJPkWJ0HMOUuISq_8nuT_P2I28dxaXk3vuYDxkgWAhqNeIdpMuQVWEfeG_WNKVNEqkRoywRMcEk-H-bcAvXcvyVIwUQOB1z9tWLZgT-kvhW4hYTdKpU2bAN_dayeGMXYrpbMAb_jlCv6MOA/w640-h280/Screenshot%202024-01-29%20at%2010.48.38%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: NCEI</td></tr></tbody></table><br />As can be readily seen from the graph above, we simply do not live in the climate of the 20th century anymore. That climate is long gone. The statewide average temperature in the 20th century was 47.6F. Over the last 20 years, it's been 49.4F or 1.8F. That works out to an even 1C if you like metric. That may not seem like a lot, but that equates to about a 500 foot increase in the mean snow level during winter storms if all other storm characteristics were held fixed. <br /><br />Sigh...Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-37573738170860769752024-01-26T11:36:00.002-07:002024-01-26T11:36:06.349-07:002023 Was Warm<p>Updating graphs for talks and classes now that the numbers are in and processed from 2023. This is no surprise given what has been observed throughout the year, but 2023 was the warmest year on record. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrLI49AzXjASdGsgK5zAkthYvma0pZZVFhneipf3L3AXsDuyNYwgc9Z6Q8wp30FdK1Oo7nSq2iFQvKM7EhoGz1AhQDLf7uFD12YMuukKMMNNq6wfFNqpii-kDg_FJIUCaPghy72uQPL1GokTDLQIrRFgosDJRNIR9PwCrZD2zBIa9SEsQjF9Akeu7aiRM/s1682/Screenshot%202024-01-26%20at%2011.30.35%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="706" data-original-width="1682" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrLI49AzXjASdGsgK5zAkthYvma0pZZVFhneipf3L3AXsDuyNYwgc9Z6Q8wp30FdK1Oo7nSq2iFQvKM7EhoGz1AhQDLf7uFD12YMuukKMMNNq6wfFNqpii-kDg_FJIUCaPghy72uQPL1GokTDLQIrRFgosDJRNIR9PwCrZD2zBIa9SEsQjF9Akeu7aiRM/w640-h268/Screenshot%202024-01-26%20at%2011.30.35%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Expect more records in the future. Every year might not top the previous given that there is some variability from year to year, but the long-term trend is not our friend.Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-53581642119057621082024-01-25T08:07:00.001-07:002024-01-25T08:07:46.521-07:00Tough Week Ahead for Western Powder Skiing<p>We have a weak storm moving through northern Utah today, after which we will have to hope that the advertised Groundhog Day pattern change comes through. </p><p>Today's storm is associated with a weak 700-mb trough that at 1200 UTC was located along the Utah–Nevada border. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicGsr2ylGRHIWFFnwaoJHJUR93LsArCcnEmoFRP8AaC7Yv_u1RY7Rcqh28DH3xyVrwurBp4jVHtKDB8fUtSFzC6AuhZM8I-5tfH4R5_DNWQN_VVL3qr5NLo6KJ9I8-kPEB__FEVznfdBpRPMaetSTWhwOl3izYqjL67-iSeg9VzZRHg6gJk9PK9vluj2s/s1875/GFSSY_IM2024012506F006.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1254" data-original-width="1875" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicGsr2ylGRHIWFFnwaoJHJUR93LsArCcnEmoFRP8AaC7Yv_u1RY7Rcqh28DH3xyVrwurBp4jVHtKDB8fUtSFzC6AuhZM8I-5tfH4R5_DNWQN_VVL3qr5NLo6KJ9I8-kPEB__FEVznfdBpRPMaetSTWhwOl3izYqjL67-iSeg9VzZRHg6gJk9PK9vluj2s/w640-h428/GFSSY_IM2024012506F006.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>As I type this at 7:50 AM, it is producing some valley rain here at the University of Utah, but so far not much at upper elevations. The passage of the trough and then the unstable postfrontal period looks to produce some snow though for the mountains. The GFS is going in for 0.45" of water and 6.2" of snow for Alta-Collins. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij2Rj7ZFGWDlILioOnkzN9ZlMPWmP8jeVGy-TTeuv4ho8CEOFllZTpzn-LYKAgBegLVck06TltOmr8vH09EjXFH_4E_kUwGTsLslzvn9N1wKNuxGz3iL4ennG66uFD6Wr6m6T1bNwvgUf-GEFmBW4771i06znBTAUUAsup-_HlOMhSVMsQFvrklPnzacI/s1400/gfslccforecast-short_2024012506.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1400" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij2Rj7ZFGWDlILioOnkzN9ZlMPWmP8jeVGy-TTeuv4ho8CEOFllZTpzn-LYKAgBegLVck06TltOmr8vH09EjXFH_4E_kUwGTsLslzvn9N1wKNuxGz3iL4ennG66uFD6Wr6m6T1bNwvgUf-GEFmBW4771i06znBTAUUAsup-_HlOMhSVMsQFvrklPnzacI/w640-h548/gfslccforecast-short_2024012506.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The HRRR is pretty unenthusiastic producing only 0.17" of water and just under 2" of snow. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG2OK167KDAA6HLUZmqftVahgViMrOX_kpCDxwgq8LW7qbTEDrv4tj70KDKDKewBLX3E2MxtXdoIl5TmzjVUv8olHDHMP8M3s2mZxuihbtYJyj6Gyal5s603px-OjmK4-ngyiUJ73iaCUWEz7LiN0O38NPFbCJBnQZOs9XGVxsCw1OEFJbD-98lXxzj0U/s1400/hrrrlccforecast_2024012512.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1400" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG2OK167KDAA6HLUZmqftVahgViMrOX_kpCDxwgq8LW7qbTEDrv4tj70KDKDKewBLX3E2MxtXdoIl5TmzjVUv8olHDHMP8M3s2mZxuihbtYJyj6Gyal5s603px-OjmK4-ngyiUJ73iaCUWEz7LiN0O38NPFbCJBnQZOs9XGVxsCw1OEFJbD-98lXxzj0U/w640-h548/hrrrlccforecast_2024012512.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Looking at the local radar, I was quite discouraged as the band ahead of the trough is nearly through with little accumulation in the central Wasatch (the southern Wasatch is doing better), but there are some instability showers behind the trough over Nevada, so maybe we can get something going eventually as that part of the system moves through. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM6bv6PNWYmYsPZhj-0ABXatkK9i5vKUzBy-_fRNV62u7o-1xNQUv_I68I7DwgO9OVaTOWhp8JJHYJ-XhYce8T4FxLfhdnMqnapmYg59tQnb6HbQMXLa-tKxawdMvjNaXvPZbfuzHk4wUdOlJyFmblksB6XmWgO0-R4lO2V526ecX_7dv7dTJF4B7belE/s1099/Screenshot%202024-01-25%20at%207.57.21%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1099" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM6bv6PNWYmYsPZhj-0ABXatkK9i5vKUzBy-_fRNV62u7o-1xNQUv_I68I7DwgO9OVaTOWhp8JJHYJ-XhYce8T4FxLfhdnMqnapmYg59tQnb6HbQMXLa-tKxawdMvjNaXvPZbfuzHk4wUdOlJyFmblksB6XmWgO0-R4lO2V526ecX_7dv7dTJF4B7belE/w640-h422/Screenshot%202024-01-25%20at%207.57.21%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: College of DuPage</td></tr></tbody></table><br />This is a tough forecast given the model spread. The HRRR is nearly a nothing burger. The GFS might suggest 4-8" for Alta-Collins. I'm going to lean to the latter and say we'll get something in the 4-8" range eventually as the more unstable part of the storm moves through, but that is counting heavily on the Alta Cloud to do its job. Let's hope it does because the forecasts until about Groundhog Day are pretty dismal for western powder skiing. <div><br /></div><div>Looking over the models, they are calling for a high-amplitude ridge to develop over the western US with a series of warm systems moving into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Dry, inversion weather will predominate over the western interior, with rain at times to high elevations over the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia. As an example, below is the GFS forecast valid 0000 UTC 31 January (5 PM MST Tuesday) showing a deep cyclone off the BC Coast and a potent and warm atmospheric river extending from the sub tropics to the Pacific Northwest/Southwest BC coast. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBENiRB7COoNvB9lBdcbm5F9wiFBE2xWhKJ9wdfTJUzcRx-gau0fGCrNH4RBCPIf8Y-xxvTm-pqAQqhViRaIEtecAXHhVvZf1fLDrTtn9EmJHXBOA0U740bCb8RtiI73TiCQi4Lcs8OjpHrlMLjSLLUMkz6prITC6z0sQ_z1d-zUqjYSSFzoBLp0cXYV4/s1875/GFSSY_WS2024012506F138.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1249" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBENiRB7COoNvB9lBdcbm5F9wiFBE2xWhKJ9wdfTJUzcRx-gau0fGCrNH4RBCPIf8Y-xxvTm-pqAQqhViRaIEtecAXHhVvZf1fLDrTtn9EmJHXBOA0U740bCb8RtiI73TiCQi4Lcs8OjpHrlMLjSLLUMkz6prITC6z0sQ_z1d-zUqjYSSFzoBLp0cXYV4/w640-h426/GFSSY_WS2024012506F138.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The models are hinting at a pattern change around Groundhog Day, so let's hope it comes through. Note that if that pattern happens, it has nothing to do with weird men in top hats pulling a rodent out of the ground.</div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-45752178387828547662024-01-23T08:14:00.006-07:002024-01-23T08:14:59.510-07:00Steenburgh Winter (Sort of)This has been a ski season characterized by dramatic boom and bust cycles that are very clear in the snowpack water equivalent trace for Snowbird below. Evident are two major storm periods from December 1 to 10 and from Jan 3 to 22 that added 6.4 inches and 8.6 inches of water, respectively. Together, these two periods account for 15 inches of the total water equivalent in the Snowbird snowpack, or about 75% of the 20.1" total. <div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCQWU84sSJVXwpP4qkmGFXnYgOQtimfajRVCxphiNAl-hZ4PHQ7EKUS9teHatzLsUV-PxGX4LSjuTOyRkea5njjfUb_Gle_2_vkJj6KafaN45d81kThCtLkCyhrcNzCECgWjmhnEVxkKrSaDIylHQhQPQ29LjcKOJGvB8VQwKWiMBrG3MXR895dh1urqo/s1200/snowbird-ut-wteq-por.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="700" data-original-width="1200" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCQWU84sSJVXwpP4qkmGFXnYgOQtimfajRVCxphiNAl-hZ4PHQ7EKUS9teHatzLsUV-PxGX4LSjuTOyRkea5njjfUb_Gle_2_vkJj6KafaN45d81kThCtLkCyhrcNzCECgWjmhnEVxkKrSaDIylHQhQPQ29LjcKOJGvB8VQwKWiMBrG3MXR895dh1urqo/w640-h374/snowbird-ut-wteq-por.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: NRCS</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>During the January storm period, it is likely that we eclipsed the 100 inch mark on the Alta-Collins total snow depth stake, but due to some erratic reports, it was difficult to know with confidence if that was the case. The time series of total snow depth at that site over the past two weeks is below and it shows 100" first being eclipsed late in the evening on January 13. Shortly after that though, the measurements drop abruptly back down to 94 inches and then bounce around from the high 90s to 118 inches until the 16th when things settle down again. We have remained at or above 100" since then. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_1wf9mEDnWnjVkYYJciR_-dzi2V6687mm17BbnvHojsXQw0ZiDQrhRB75tDYL54jAtZEYXTYab-gJvthJ28xIxe-VkUPakdVOwll8SW8qRKmaLn9Qz_Xjz8zdb5RwBsOFdygZmm2diFs92eDJwBKwfDbsaWYu5EGlg5aDjBiVinMolcH_rsPYvAdeofI/s935/time_chart_dyn.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="935" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_1wf9mEDnWnjVkYYJciR_-dzi2V6687mm17BbnvHojsXQw0ZiDQrhRB75tDYL54jAtZEYXTYab-gJvthJ28xIxe-VkUPakdVOwll8SW8qRKmaLn9Qz_Xjz8zdb5RwBsOFdygZmm2diFs92eDJwBKwfDbsaWYu5EGlg5aDjBiVinMolcH_rsPYvAdeofI/w640-h290/time_chart_dyn.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: MesoWest/Alta Ski Area</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>January 13 was quite windy. The Mt. Baldy anemometer hit 90 mph overnight on the 12th and ultimately succumbed to riming on the 14th. Thus, a combination of wind transport and instrument flakiness greatly complicated matters. <br /><br />Given how late in the day we first reached 100" on the 13th, and the fact that the non 118 inch reports next reached 100 inches late in the day on the 14th, I'm going to declare 14 January as the official start of Steenburgh winter, that period between the first day of 100" on the Alta-Collins Snow Stake and February 10th when the sun angle begins to have an increasingly caustic effect on the snow. This period is the crème de la crème of backcountry skiing given the deep snowpack and low angle sun, enabling powder to persist for long periods on a wide range of aspects. </div><div><br /></div><div>However, this year we have been thrown a curve ball and it is one of the reasons why I am not celebrating. That curve-ball was the prolonged dry period from December 10 to January 3, which ultimately led to the development of a persistent weak layer that is now buried by all of the snow that fell over the past couple of weeks. This led the Utah Avalanche Center to raise the black flag for extreme avalanche danger at all elevations and aspects on Sunday January 14. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBLKWDFxe5o9TET2EXGwJWhNQKe2m_IxzVOOpTQC-nYcZ65XfSzRh9VI-W7qjVFWtHDAULcJYSH_f5LXEUvUTY-zadCvGajqzqJcJ727v0nDm9G_LAN8mbR6VSHPpSsmJDY-KmUnthnIM-bsFV1TLKXnC58J2BRQnOEcx9Mf0Gt8S6p8OJedCNMWYjUCQ/s1147/Screenshot%202024-01-23%20at%207.57.41%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="470" data-original-width="1147" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBLKWDFxe5o9TET2EXGwJWhNQKe2m_IxzVOOpTQC-nYcZ65XfSzRh9VI-W7qjVFWtHDAULcJYSH_f5LXEUvUTY-zadCvGajqzqJcJ727v0nDm9G_LAN8mbR6VSHPpSsmJDY-KmUnthnIM-bsFV1TLKXnC58J2BRQnOEcx9Mf0Gt8S6p8OJedCNMWYjUCQ/w640-h262/Screenshot%202024-01-23%20at%207.57.41%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: Utah Avalanche Center, issued 14 December 2024</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>About 30 years ago, when I was leaving Seattle for Salt Lake City, famed avalanche forecaster Sue Ferguson, a former director of the Utah and Northwest Avalanche Centers, told me that in Utah you can avoid many avalanches by simply waiting three days after a storm before entering into avalanche terrain. This was not meant to be rigorously followed advice as Sue knew as well as anyone that there is variance around the mean, but it was her way of saying that persistent weak layers are less common here and that patience is a virtue in Utah where we are often dealing with new snow and wind-driven instabilities that can heal quickly. </div><div><br /></div><div>However, there are years when that is clearly not the case and this is one of them. That persistent weak layer may have strengthened some in some areas, but we are still dealing with a Russian Roulette snowpack. We still have considerable avalanche danger on a good portion of the avalanche rose and, as summarized by Drew Hardesty in today's report "dangerous and tricky avalanche conditions exist." </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaS-q1Wm4PWG0P3Lj60kXJPnaBNlM-X9bSe5eaE_vuR8l0yxxzw-xev7jlJkRgIA-8f1gtqI1GuDSX8dc4Fybb3Qx1ma-75c3dgO_QMoI4KooHmbqjAbclNYAbRo1YgnG34t1_KGb3_USBZYckJug2RtewMdUnJM4wsS9fk9yaUvOuS7cntcsLdxuQLdo/s1078/Screenshot%202024-01-23%20at%208.04.32%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="477" data-original-width="1078" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaS-q1Wm4PWG0P3Lj60kXJPnaBNlM-X9bSe5eaE_vuR8l0yxxzw-xev7jlJkRgIA-8f1gtqI1GuDSX8dc4Fybb3Qx1ma-75c3dgO_QMoI4KooHmbqjAbclNYAbRo1YgnG34t1_KGb3_USBZYckJug2RtewMdUnJM4wsS9fk9yaUvOuS7cntcsLdxuQLdo/w640-h284/Screenshot%202024-01-23%20at%208.04.32%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Drew comments further that cautious route finding and conservative decision making are essential. Indeed, many people that I know are laying low right now, staying away from of steep terrain. </div><div><br /></div><div>So, Steenburgh winter is here, but the green light is not on in the backcountry. That said, the coverage is good in the aspens and reports are that the resort skiing has been quite good (I was in Steamboat last week and the snow conditions there were also quite good). It is always good to reach 100" of snow depth and 20" of water at the Snowbird SNOTEL in January. In the case of the latter, the median snowpack doesn't reach 20" until February 1st. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-11156365675071565982024-01-20T09:49:00.000-07:002024-01-20T09:49:05.501-07:00#SkiColorado<p>I spent the last week in Steamboat attending a meeting known as the Weather Summit and helping out a bit at Storm Peak Lab, a major meteorological observing facility at the top of the ski resort that is now operated by the University of Utah after it was transferred over from the Desert Research Institute. </p><p>We arrived late Tuesday, which turned out to be the only day we saw the sun. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS5sG3nKUWd8Aqb4nrr7Mr607-9A_C3zFbJ0i2IP4ZhJQT1WunQQFpeCZNF88PbfyQkG1B9eng-cBdYfYNSeXzQpr8oE7Ij_0o4yHRIDVkE2rdgIrElVSEK6Eo71Gs-WpV-yXj-YPg65G3qadWND-IAKgjNHWF253q6ZinArybPOpaszHO2CuxcJuCzTo/s3450/PXL_20240116_224859938.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2587" data-original-width="3450" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS5sG3nKUWd8Aqb4nrr7Mr607-9A_C3zFbJ0i2IP4ZhJQT1WunQQFpeCZNF88PbfyQkG1B9eng-cBdYfYNSeXzQpr8oE7Ij_0o4yHRIDVkE2rdgIrElVSEK6Eo71Gs-WpV-yXj-YPg65G3qadWND-IAKgjNHWF253q6ZinArybPOpaszHO2CuxcJuCzTo/w640-h480/PXL_20240116_224859938.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>The meeting was structured to allow for morning turns, which featured dust on crust Wednesday morning and cream on crust Thursday morning. On Wednesday morning, as the airmass warmed, there was a transition in snow crystals from lightly rimed dendrites to rimed crystals. Steamboat has trademarked the phrase Champagne Powder (don't tell the French about this) and the morning snow was of such quality (although not deep). By mid morning though, the dendrites were heavily rimed, as illustrated by the snow crystals on my shell.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwcRPtlX4trpeHVMgAMZbdR8Mtxvv_xu6VNDcAm571Vg6NUJa0rbGb-zEvo7xhAoYjWEv64ZLTe3g9jLZMw9M9e-uJch_0Ovir5_p9gKIEtI3QJRvOpI4Uv5CzGJVjg-20p3RPt78mqHi-cAdsh0CquHThnf6LUtkANaCHsoEWrq24Lbu-3PZFJHBI88A/s3450/PXL_20240117_184008966.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2587" data-original-width="3450" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwcRPtlX4trpeHVMgAMZbdR8Mtxvv_xu6VNDcAm571Vg6NUJa0rbGb-zEvo7xhAoYjWEv64ZLTe3g9jLZMw9M9e-uJch_0Ovir5_p9gKIEtI3QJRvOpI4Uv5CzGJVjg-20p3RPt78mqHi-cAdsh0CquHThnf6LUtkANaCHsoEWrq24Lbu-3PZFJHBI88A/w640-h480/PXL_20240117_184008966.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>A lot of work has been done using data from Storm Peak Lab to examine cloud characteristics and snow growth processes. A favorite paper of mine is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033%3C0797:ATWROC%3E2.0.CO;2">Hindman et al. (1994)</a> which examined the concentration and size of cloud droplets over a multiyear period at the lab. Out of 274 samples, 241 (88%) exhibited what we would expect in clouds with "continental" characteristics where as 33 (12%) featured clouds with "maritime" characteristics. <br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLCp_rNEHxHNn-U18KMcxYgBXzD2-oY8GfYPN5AQxExw9B5l_x8ajTQEY4M91x6F9YX5wtGWTI7bvmVQjuLpF67LteIV99wk6LyMkEzNEZuuO5AbmDfeemFLnt-yhLRJphHCdMxQt5ycR0u7uhemPUumjnobL4xboThGr9tlfUGeV0MS1alUp9dRnyCYk/s940/Screenshot%202024-01-20%20at%209.28.09%E2%80%AFAM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="940" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLCp_rNEHxHNn-U18KMcxYgBXzD2-oY8GfYPN5AQxExw9B5l_x8ajTQEY4M91x6F9YX5wtGWTI7bvmVQjuLpF67LteIV99wk6LyMkEzNEZuuO5AbmDfeemFLnt-yhLRJphHCdMxQt5ycR0u7uhemPUumjnobL4xboThGr9tlfUGeV0MS1alUp9dRnyCYk/s320/Screenshot%202024-01-20%20at%209.28.09%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: Hindman et al. (1994)</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>Over the continents, there tends to be a lot more very small particles in the air that are referred to by scientists as aerosols. Some of these aerosols can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN. These become the "birthplace" of cloud droplets. Because there are a lot more CCN, continental clouds tend to feature more cloud droplets per volume of air. These droplets also tend to be smaller. In contrast, in maritime clouds, there are fewer CCN, there tend to be fewer cloud droplets, and they tend to be larger. All else being equal, those larger droplets more efficiently rime falling snowflakes, leading to heavily rimed snow crystals (such as those pictured above) or graupel. </div><div><br /></div><div>There are other pathways to creating rimed crystals or graupel in clouds even in continental clouds, but clouds with maritime characteristics do it more efficiently. I didn't take a look at the aerosol concentrations on Wednesday, but on Friday they were low, so perhaps this was a contributing factor to the development of rimed crystals on Wednesday. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-66371536318057169522024-01-14T06:01:00.006-07:002024-01-14T06:01:52.254-07:00Had Enough Yet?<p>I'm up early and looking at the overnight numbers. It was quite windy last night, so there is more uncertainty in the automated observations than usual, but from 5 PM yesterday to 5 AM this morning, the Collins gauge measured 1.91" (48 mm) of water and probably about 20 inches of snow (the 33 below is spurious). The drop in total snow depth is odd, and that is one reason why I mention the uncertainty. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQQo045JBBMalP-YK41lKUCbWZFe4FLjIflkWHseeQSfLOk6RZQqKrQyPSjpoC6jVPb31r5MPCKDxxGqnYlPqsvoAo4aOVyF7vARltgAgD_gAfoCik0uXXoK88oxmD9UmXnkIMfFxbPXeQ9jLfyGIie9sQiW_P91hQc7krv4SHPWc4A0hFLPggcxI5HT0/s1480/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-14%20at%205.36.16%20AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1480" data-original-width="1158" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQQo045JBBMalP-YK41lKUCbWZFe4FLjIflkWHseeQSfLOk6RZQqKrQyPSjpoC6jVPb31r5MPCKDxxGqnYlPqsvoAo4aOVyF7vARltgAgD_gAfoCik0uXXoK88oxmD9UmXnkIMfFxbPXeQ9jLfyGIie9sQiW_P91hQc7krv4SHPWc4A0hFLPggcxI5HT0/w500-h640/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-14%20at%205.36.16%20AM.png" width="500" /></a></div>Assuming it came in around 48 mm in 12 hours, that's somewhat unusual. Below is a histogram of twice-daily 12-h snowfall and water equivalent (called liquid precipitation equivalent in the chart) over a 22 year period at Alta. 48 mm or more happened 10 times in that period, so about once every 2 years. <div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJmr-4U3S3y5FUcWD72H7knJjddaGV7Y-kdTpzxZ-Jj6xnVRohg0EcX1IvZuNLIm2MQ6pzq-UzFmO1etaUBNSxN1gcaDg-dTuAcMUJ_1joIcs-m9ZtrVo71lPmQBFufY5bxPYLr2r8hXCxp-TeiCM-giyQGYMHGfOjGdZ2vF9WQVtFqAXRTKOSHKQ4bnY/s2594/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-13%20at%205.09.40%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1524" data-original-width="2594" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJmr-4U3S3y5FUcWD72H7knJjddaGV7Y-kdTpzxZ-Jj6xnVRohg0EcX1IvZuNLIm2MQ6pzq-UzFmO1etaUBNSxN1gcaDg-dTuAcMUJ_1joIcs-m9ZtrVo71lPmQBFufY5bxPYLr2r8hXCxp-TeiCM-giyQGYMHGfOjGdZ2vF9WQVtFqAXRTKOSHKQ4bnY/w640-h376/Screen%20Shot%202024-01-13%20at%205.09.40%20PM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: Wasserstein and Steenburgh (2024)</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>Since those are twice daily measurements, we would probably expect a few more events than that for any 12-hour period, but still, it appears we were in unusual territory. Combined with wind and a weak snowpack, I suspect things were pushed over the edge last night. Closing both canyons and declaring interlodge were 100% the right call, although you don't need a meteorologist to tell you that. </div><div><br /></div><div>Give the highway maintenance, public safety, and snow safety teams all your patience and respect today. We are deep into too much of a good thing territory. I love snow, but better it be spread out more than come like this. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-23191784292914981922024-01-13T07:59:00.006-07:002024-01-13T07:59:59.259-07:00Storm Cycle Update<p>Snow continues to stack up in the Wasatch and the red flag continues to fly for the backcountry avalanche danger.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP8NBePjb9VhLRjAmvMc8J5xZYSq9lTdjBKwTkbEIjN_Fvnkx8RUMieBKziSZedeVeJ44-M3UpP6B6QbfTZPmLI-5WUrqvnEiHHpI0m1W8f90Z5Pt1nYKOHL093fxeW-FnNUhatnaAZGsWETnXsrRfrdEFHFnNOx2zDZn8MLGzM_CKnHR7PLLIWhuKzfQ/s1086/Screenshot%202024-01-13%20at%207.16.57%E2%80%AFAM.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="1086" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP8NBePjb9VhLRjAmvMc8J5xZYSq9lTdjBKwTkbEIjN_Fvnkx8RUMieBKziSZedeVeJ44-M3UpP6B6QbfTZPmLI-5WUrqvnEiHHpI0m1W8f90Z5Pt1nYKOHL093fxeW-FnNUhatnaAZGsWETnXsrRfrdEFHFnNOx2zDZn8MLGzM_CKnHR7PLLIWhuKzfQ/w640-h298/Screenshot%202024-01-13%20at%207.16.57%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Utah Avalanche Center Forecast Summary Issued 13 January 2024</td></tr></tbody></table><br />From 5 AM MST Wednesday to 5 AM MST Saturday, the Alta-Collins automated snow-depth sensor has ticked off 30" of snow, putting us half way to the over-under that I set at that time for the remainder of the storm cycle through Monday (see <a href="https://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2024/01/shall-we-set-over-under-for-this-storm.html" target="_blank">Shall We Set the Over Under for This Storm Cycle</a>?). It also lifts us up to about 43" since Jan 9 and 68.5" since Jan 4. These numbers are based on a mixture of data from the Alta Snowfall history and the automated snow stake so they may differ slightly from other estimates, especially given yesterday's wind. I notice that the Alta web page is listing the storm total as 44", so they must be using Jan 9 as the start date. <div><br /></div><div>As I write this at 7:20 AM, we are in a bit of a lull, but I say that with a caveat. There are still some snow showers around, including three wind-parallel bands that extend downstream from the three primary ridges in the central Wasatch and into the Wasatch Back. It is not unusual for the radar to exhibit echoes <i>over</i> those ridges due to ground clutter, but these bands clearly extend well downstream. The one that extends downstream from the Mt. Raymond – Park City Ridgeline was best developed when I grabbed the image below and extended downstream to near Jordanelle Reservoir. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMkFvPfCTp5n5qkNQo4xPSfUqC7xqbtS1uiJlibn7TzhUv1gABwNoyYGbN-jhk0i9qPS9TMDzHktJD-f-wY0zLiwGTsqNn7Jq0Lwp70idjpYQ_CkbHvg95hqiCCNOhZMXi-ur1JeqC-MnnA46pI11iqRuZUfCm4ysyLAvjVoBuR2n_rw4kYofpMt_FGD4/s1314/Screenshot%202024-01-13%20at%207.24.48%E2%80%AFAM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="917" data-original-width="1314" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMkFvPfCTp5n5qkNQo4xPSfUqC7xqbtS1uiJlibn7TzhUv1gABwNoyYGbN-jhk0i9qPS9TMDzHktJD-f-wY0zLiwGTsqNn7Jq0Lwp70idjpYQ_CkbHvg95hqiCCNOhZMXi-ur1JeqC-MnnA46pI11iqRuZUfCm4ysyLAvjVoBuR2n_rw4kYofpMt_FGD4/w640-h446/Screenshot%202024-01-13%20at%207.24.48%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Expect some periods of snow today, increasing in frequency and intensity later this afternoon as the next major system approaches. The GFS forecast valid 0300 UTC 14 January (8 PM MST Saturday) shows a compact upper-level trough over southern Oregon with strong integrated vapor transport, warm advection, and precipitation over or just upstream of northern Utah. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGoxJaJRXXRvUhvnjPwRDlmPedIcl0dn_JtNomNt_cXynp8NpbDyH4cQ1sXsNGUlcunKW2gLvtEccvnXOYroybY9JHwUOBtQB09vgnf2k2ZuNeqBBi9dALbu5aVYNhohM47VpkB4e-fZVJD79LC_PumzZewW6cInsGlivgobIdeClJIlb_5yvLeQ04ArA/s1875/GFSSY_IM2024011306F021.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1254" data-original-width="1875" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGoxJaJRXXRvUhvnjPwRDlmPedIcl0dn_JtNomNt_cXynp8NpbDyH4cQ1sXsNGUlcunKW2gLvtEccvnXOYroybY9JHwUOBtQB09vgnf2k2ZuNeqBBi9dALbu5aVYNhohM47VpkB4e-fZVJD79LC_PumzZewW6cInsGlivgobIdeClJIlb_5yvLeQ04ArA/w640-h428/GFSSY_IM2024011306F021.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>This is a recipe for a transition to higher-density snow and potentially higher water-equivalent snowfall rates, especially as the trough approaches overnight, as illustrated below.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgog4Q9v0f3ycR0YUAw9QbsQ2DYH1fHszDl5i4FibyzDAxTMbee6rum2I-dGTCTAdeoAv0lacsHAcR3Q_dHwuEHqeIwOQxqZvt2TqqocJN3px_ddxO9GMsOtqH4lfndR7c6IStRQo_wxEM_M6oOWOuxHqJUHXhPEUVryh5W4WWLMuYZn33mEZ8iE07yf0E/s1875/GFSSY_IM2024011306F027.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1254" data-original-width="1875" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgog4Q9v0f3ycR0YUAw9QbsQ2DYH1fHszDl5i4FibyzDAxTMbee6rum2I-dGTCTAdeoAv0lacsHAcR3Q_dHwuEHqeIwOQxqZvt2TqqocJN3px_ddxO9GMsOtqH4lfndR7c6IStRQo_wxEM_M6oOWOuxHqJUHXhPEUVryh5W4WWLMuYZn33mEZ8iE07yf0E/w640-h428/GFSSY_IM2024011306F027.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Tomorrow, with the trough through, we transition to northwesterly flow with, you guessed it, more snow. <br /><br />As noted above, the backcountry avalanche danger is high, with forecasts calling for it to rise to extreme. In the video below, Trent Meisenheimer calls the avalanche danger "as wild as I've seen it in my tenure." <br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Z-Cyl8YZ01E?si=qnk8HoSd6euqcc0X" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">My touring party yesterday elected to go for a "trail" tour for exercise, staying entirely in thick trees, and I think we have all decided to give up on mid- and upper-elevation ski touring and let Mother Nature have "fun" for a few days. I often talk about outlier mode in meteorology, but these are outlier mode conditions for the snowpack and microterrain features in many "safe" zones are producing hair trigger avalanches that are catching experienced riders. One skier was buried yesterday and fortunately recovered by their partners. The provided a very honest and sobering write up that is available at <a href="https://t.co/s05EuP7ypl">https://t.co/s05EuP7ypl</a>. I am grateful all is well and thankful they had the courage to share this report.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Getting back to the forecast, I'll focus here on the the latest HRRR run for Alta/Little Cottonwood, which just arrived. Precipitation rates are forecast to be fairly low until about 2 PM, when they start to pick up. Overnight, you know what hits the fan. From 11 PM Saturday to 8 AM Sunday the HRRR puts out 1.4" of water and 15" of snow. For the period beginning 5 AM this morning and ending 5 PM Sunday, totals are 2.63" of water and 28" of snow. This is higher density stuff than we've seen, with our algorithm going for snow-to-liquid ratios below 10:1 prior to the trough passage tonight and the wet-bulb zero level reaching almost 7000 feet. This might push snow levels to just above the benches. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIiRK82sVOjw3kfIKyhLpKMlXzplAIG_g2fzZpUarSZu-muNuOn5wwG0sDNyktMNqfBCAXpFRHtf_LC9333Px2sIRQh8_iF1nSC7zn6YeLOiazfkjwLPMJI8aq6HkOhw9iW_1sHMKwSdpQp5j6qf6pmf1soby2nBPugVpoXjGW0NEIwLTCHqh0ayP6RRo/s1400/hrrrlccforecast_2024011312.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1400" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIiRK82sVOjw3kfIKyhLpKMlXzplAIG_g2fzZpUarSZu-muNuOn5wwG0sDNyktMNqfBCAXpFRHtf_LC9333Px2sIRQh8_iF1nSC7zn6YeLOiazfkjwLPMJI8aq6HkOhw9iW_1sHMKwSdpQp5j6qf6pmf1soby2nBPugVpoXjGW0NEIwLTCHqh0ayP6RRo/w640-h548/hrrrlccforecast_2024011312.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;">The numbers from the GFS (not shown) are a bit lower for that overnight period (0.85" water/10" of snow) and the period from 5 AM this morning through 5 PM Sunday (1.7" water/21" snow). The GFS is a bit cooler, with the wet-bulb zero level only reaching 6000 ft. Nevertheless, it goes for the higher density snow tonight as well. <br /><br />I'll add that the GFS extends farther into the future than the HRRR and it continues to produce snow through 11 PM Monday with another storm on Wednesday. The Euro is also on board with the Wednesday storm. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">I'm buckled up already, so I'm not sure what to recommend at this point except let the road maintenance, public safety, and snow safety teams have all your patience and respect. We are deeply in outlier territory. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-60664699305564620232024-01-10T10:20:00.005-07:002024-01-10T10:21:08.611-07:00Shall We Set the Over Under for This Storm Cycle? I thought for today we could talk about how much snow we might get from this storm cycle.<div><br /></div><div>A storm cycle is a series of storms that occur in succession. One has to decide when to start or end such a cycle. There are two options for this one. One is to start on January 4th, which is when we first started seeing snow after the holiday drought. The other is to start yesterday, January 9, as there was nearly a 24-hour break in the snow. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'll use both here.<br /><br /></div><div>Jan 4 start: 38.5" so far (per Alta Snowfall History)</div><div>Jan 9 start: 13" so far (per Collins automated measurements)</div><div><br /></div><div>These are a little inconsistent because the Collins automated measurements don't perfectly correspond to the snowfall history, but this is only for fun and we're not running a professional gambling house here, so I'll go with it. </div><div><br /></div><div>How much will we add to these totals? For the purposes of defining and end, I'm going to use 1200 UTC 15 January (5 AM MST Monday) as most models suggest there may be a break then.</div><div><br /></div><div>Let's start with the GFS. After deducting what it produced overnight last night, the GFS is producing an additional 4.85" of water and 67.8" of snow for Alta through 5 AM MST Monday. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQjVWaPuH3VNzGP4wnsJHBt3ukB-aWiY1kZnchPGbDO-9iB1hdpQ5-QcGDBfAgkquOQb2hcd2Hy0ofsUDQEB8skJHxY3BJLa3RPfBEDO2AR1dazBgECLdfUUBfeHFOGGNubWlL7IV-SNflcY67GZT_cy3byvw27fnx0baOMaLwUdQkR-muWiPe7YeHEzU/s1400/gfslccforecast_2024011006.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1400" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQjVWaPuH3VNzGP4wnsJHBt3ukB-aWiY1kZnchPGbDO-9iB1hdpQ5-QcGDBfAgkquOQb2hcd2Hy0ofsUDQEB8skJHxY3BJLa3RPfBEDO2AR1dazBgECLdfUUBfeHFOGGNubWlL7IV-SNflcY67GZT_cy3byvw27fnx0baOMaLwUdQkR-muWiPe7YeHEzU/w640-h548/gfslccforecast_2024011006.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>We don't have a comparable product for the Euro, but it is coming in with about 3.2" of water which if we use the mean snow-to-liquid ratio from the GFS converts to about 45" of snow. The Euro does tend to be the drier of the two models for Alta.</div><div><br /></div><div>Finally, we have the downscaled NAEFS. I've never seen numbers like these being output from this product. Across the whole western US, the mean bias of the water equivalent forecasts produced by this technique is close to zero, but my impression is that it is typically high for Alta (but I haven't confirmed this). Additionally, this uses an old and very simplistic algorithm for snow-to-liquid ratio, and in a situation like this with strong winds and high water equivalents, it is probably overestimating the snow-to-liquid ratio during some parts of the storm. That said, after deducting about 1" of water equivalent at 15" of snow it called for overnight, the NAEFS mean calls for another 7" of water and 100+ inches of snow. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioBC0YsXLZ-IOzSLHagMoe4VSQydS08NDrK6ngqJJoIa7ziF1ddAJ3yk1pZec56cAChXxL3F6u4XKD6b3I63b0_N5JRD-lmV9hYVQH6ty3DJ5Zqxq7fH6-tX6pc0SM0mZjs0iDCU-UXrFsfryb_umLKnu7YiKUNpF3vSMHTDA_qX47FxvlmbXAtjmWko4/s1865/NAEFSPL_CLN2024011000F168.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1252" data-original-width="1865" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioBC0YsXLZ-IOzSLHagMoe4VSQydS08NDrK6ngqJJoIa7ziF1ddAJ3yk1pZec56cAChXxL3F6u4XKD6b3I63b0_N5JRD-lmV9hYVQH6ty3DJ5Zqxq7fH6-tX6pc0SM0mZjs0iDCU-UXrFsfryb_umLKnu7YiKUNpF3vSMHTDA_qX47FxvlmbXAtjmWko4/w640-h430/NAEFSPL_CLN2024011000F168.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>After looking over the models for the period, I consider the real crux for these forecasts to be the period from tonight, when we will be in the unstable postfrontal flow, and then Friday when we transition to a more stable northwesterly flow with high integrated vapor transport. The GFS forecast for the latter is depicted below. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhirJu7BWUN4Vireq7lXsp3SfWYpvlf60STsh-TfhVXvzcfswReAmL52ba3AV4ZzEYJHTVdaf0mCMA6rFraB3T4te5Hz9jI_u0MH2cfm_fMQSgaVGKYZt5aS8KM7HIoLbZpUThRfcb2hqJlD-WAzMvy7k2TBuWJqtC0be7SV7DfMuVF853kLB5Ia_s_ZLo/s1875/GFSSY_WS2024011006F066.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1249" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhirJu7BWUN4Vireq7lXsp3SfWYpvlf60STsh-TfhVXvzcfswReAmL52ba3AV4ZzEYJHTVdaf0mCMA6rFraB3T4te5Hz9jI_u0MH2cfm_fMQSgaVGKYZt5aS8KM7HIoLbZpUThRfcb2hqJlD-WAzMvy7k2TBuWJqtC0be7SV7DfMuVF853kLB5Ia_s_ZLo/w640-h426/GFSSY_WS2024011006F066.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>These are environments where I see a wider range of possible outcomes, unlike today, especially this afternoon, when it looks like it is a lock to get the goods with the frontal approach and passage. Then there's the big storm system for the weekend, which is associated with an intense and compact upper-level trough and inland penetrating atmospheric river. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwsYL9mGZja85Dmvpj2JOotAG1MZ5iItF5t859_ONiCsIyAMDo40gAS2oV2Ilz7YPMICdalTtqsN47Po23CAiXA0Hc-0V7CSQ9_Ie-YHw7DC-SP9g7_-CpW4teBKJqaakh5pGdr2uJLjZnyTF0rm4xDxu8IG10voGuQB4-0sZOwtXbBSwKclvBBTnt5L0/s1875/GFSSY_WS2024011006F090.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1249" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwsYL9mGZja85Dmvpj2JOotAG1MZ5iItF5t859_ONiCsIyAMDo40gAS2oV2Ilz7YPMICdalTtqsN47Po23CAiXA0Hc-0V7CSQ9_Ie-YHw7DC-SP9g7_-CpW4teBKJqaakh5pGdr2uJLjZnyTF0rm4xDxu8IG10voGuQB4-0sZOwtXbBSwKclvBBTnt5L0/w640-h426/GFSSY_WS2024011006F090.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>These are amongst the most exciting forecasts I've seen in my time at Utah</u></b>. We have had big storm cycles, but the number of models calling for big accumulations in the mountains and periods of disruptive snowfall in the valleys is remarkable. </div><div><br /></div><div>So how high does one go for the rest of the storm cycle? For an over under, I'm going to go a bit below the GFS total and add another 60" to what we have already. That puts us at</div><div><br /></div><div><div>Jan 4 start: 38.5"+60" = 98.5" </div><div>Jan 9 start: 13"+ 60" = 73"</div></div><div><br /></div><div>Another way to think about the over under is that it represents the middle point of all of the possibilities. There's a 50% chance of less and a 50% chance of more. </div><div><br /></div><div>The National Weather Service would have access to an objectively determined "over under" from their National Blend of Models. Perhaps someone from there can share it in the comments below. For what it is worth, what the call the "deterministic" forecast from this product is calling for a bit over 80".</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7YdElVrEbqJAXY_J5U52V6U2ZkdxsgmNlZY0VPYtdGLSX7dXbmsQeUSpXSLjJkmk9aMiDN4W16hBREHkUNx_uB7WkkyhmfIp46tFABTz3GhHiWpAg44cbpe73iWeQ_jA_OEQ1Yr1Z1JZQyN10c5Hl9V-ej30GZJYuXHLQrlPT0hv23MaWDPYhd859Xko/s1928/Screenshot%202024-01-10%20at%2010.16.18%E2%80%AFAM.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="1928" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7YdElVrEbqJAXY_J5U52V6U2ZkdxsgmNlZY0VPYtdGLSX7dXbmsQeUSpXSLjJkmk9aMiDN4W16hBREHkUNx_uB7WkkyhmfIp46tFABTz3GhHiWpAg44cbpe73iWeQ_jA_OEQ1Yr1Z1JZQyN10c5Hl9V-ej30GZJYuXHLQrlPT0hv23MaWDPYhd859Xko/w640-h172/Screenshot%202024-01-10%20at%2010.16.18%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">NBM forecast for Alta screenshot at 10:16 AM MST 10 January 2024</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>I confess that my 60" above could reflect my conservative nature. I have a hard time going way out on the limb for the most extreme storms. </div><div><br /></div><div>In the end, we will get what we get and we won't throw a fit. We are going get it today and over the weekend and possibly quite a bit in between. It is going to add up to a lot of snow, big traffic snarls, dangerous avalanche conditions, terrain closures, etc. etc. etc. </div><div><br /></div><div>Are you over or under?</div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-47173115801186593152024-01-08T13:30:00.003-07:002024-01-08T13:30:54.660-07:00Mother Nature Is About to Release the Hounds<p>Today is probably going to be the quietist of this work week. For the most part, it is dry, although if you peer to the west from the University of Utah, you can still see some of our dendritic friends are still falling over the Oquirrhs. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE8-mY7kxQ9V9eNuJAXLQo3V6XpvAZ1xJM7Efpg2x77GGeF3fvKmO0n6Uq9TiTwvs7AjFtKF7AzOLBxhJiSeOlUhYrurvFekvgUKoRZhoIKDw9pGXF9dJDFPgOO1XwlhtREC_vp3RrHXBdDUnaPUvokAdO-AVM82ddoR6tFwzCSZLxWingCzkCM6SC2WY/s4032/PXL_20240108_194158816.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE8-mY7kxQ9V9eNuJAXLQo3V6XpvAZ1xJM7Efpg2x77GGeF3fvKmO0n6Uq9TiTwvs7AjFtKF7AzOLBxhJiSeOlUhYrurvFekvgUKoRZhoIKDw9pGXF9dJDFPgOO1XwlhtREC_vp3RrHXBdDUnaPUvokAdO-AVM82ddoR6tFwzCSZLxWingCzkCM6SC2WY/w640-h480/PXL_20240108_194158816.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Cams from the central Wasatch also show some flakes falling, although it's not adding up to much. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidc3kMwHjIpsVgK6dcz3-ODAYoPUTH_qwelElE7aBhPWxd5CHSC3gvTZWLFy6TvsD0UaUietIi31aqowqOILecFABxQh3XqJYBY8kFds8cmucixtV1jJNljxhBVMvnbh8derTlVWci-jWiCLuztMqsHzzIz8efFOq7pZGTQWpE59tEjhz3ZrhSYESe5IE/s1920/Superior.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidc3kMwHjIpsVgK6dcz3-ODAYoPUTH_qwelElE7aBhPWxd5CHSC3gvTZWLFy6TvsD0UaUietIi31aqowqOILecFABxQh3XqJYBY8kFds8cmucixtV1jJNljxhBVMvnbh8derTlVWci-jWiCLuztMqsHzzIz8efFOq7pZGTQWpE59tEjhz3ZrhSYESe5IE/w640-h360/Superior.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: Alta Ski Area</td></tr></tbody></table><br />This is what constitutes a break in our current storm cycle. It will persist through tomorrow morning, and then Mother Nature will release the hounds. It doesn't matter what elevation you live at in northern Utah, you are going to be experiencing significant snows through the weekend. <div><br /></div><div>Let's get to it. First, the GFS forecast calls for a frontal system to be moving across northern Utah by 0000 UTC 10 January (5 PM Tuesday. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_0c91HYtMHcC6RfpYoZoMddnvxi0zymS8IlzdlPxjp4rDh-gWsFHHviRi3cVafDwRv52zmHIeo97uZYZF_pOO-nFKJQ6xmVwxvURfA97KGEjCdWSGA4oX6mzpRR-26DTGdeAsz6RMZJj0hhOc_7_LADLR8PXja3Wuy_2WVEas6mjJyzMu0KPFzv1tg8o/s1875/GFSSY_IM2024010812F036.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1254" data-original-width="1875" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_0c91HYtMHcC6RfpYoZoMddnvxi0zymS8IlzdlPxjp4rDh-gWsFHHviRi3cVafDwRv52zmHIeo97uZYZF_pOO-nFKJQ6xmVwxvURfA97KGEjCdWSGA4oX6mzpRR-26DTGdeAsz6RMZJj0hhOc_7_LADLR8PXja3Wuy_2WVEas6mjJyzMu0KPFzv1tg8o/w640-h428/GFSSY_IM2024010812F036.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>It is likely that this will bring all-elevation snow to northern Utah for the evening rush hour and significant snows overnight for the mountains and the Salt Lake Valley. As such, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of the Wasatch Front and the mountain valleys.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNotEKj8qIpkxdiwlL2bhJC_Cwjg1bUjctvs9qqucZviSw1kwUKBjqvoVjSqgGF8y7HrIXp8WECrqncxTkTmgG9JcTybeNNS2MqOjAw_l4qqEqtzWl9KWOJleCD2OUq-2w6X8ErbkmHnNLb6mHhd1ukRnBVzndKVqjPdgGkKMV1NNCAl35Y-gBlx-iXSY/s2078/Screenshot%202024-01-08%20at%2012.54.29%E2%80%AFPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2078" data-original-width="1706" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNotEKj8qIpkxdiwlL2bhJC_Cwjg1bUjctvs9qqucZviSw1kwUKBjqvoVjSqgGF8y7HrIXp8WECrqncxTkTmgG9JcTybeNNS2MqOjAw_l4qqEqtzWl9KWOJleCD2OUq-2w6X8ErbkmHnNLb6mHhd1ukRnBVzndKVqjPdgGkKMV1NNCAl35Y-gBlx-iXSY/w526-h640/Screenshot%202024-01-08%20at%2012.54.29%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="526" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Tomorrow will be a good day to monitor forecasts and consider an early departure from work if appropriate. This is a storm that will likely affect the northern Wasatch Front earlier and eventually the southern Wasatch Front. <div><br /></div><div>That's all fine and dandy, but how about we do it again on Wednesday? Sure thing. The GFS brings another frontal system in by 0000 UTC 11 January (5 PM Wednesday). </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyiqJLGbi56fCtBcP2IvKOqgsGfWECkb3fPyP4e_Om9zi40cUro-rB98dmNw6GL4heKhFbhPsvgMGCS-mx_u8T3PTscZyAUrco4r-mGkScpxZIMOAi4pamVX4XRTMDs41xz5ucky2To2vWEV9Gtogh37ZXywi4s7xMVl5XzCuRTwt9EKrhv7mGWl5EnPc/s1875/GFSSY_IM2024010812F060.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1254" data-original-width="1875" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyiqJLGbi56fCtBcP2IvKOqgsGfWECkb3fPyP4e_Om9zi40cUro-rB98dmNw6GL4heKhFbhPsvgMGCS-mx_u8T3PTscZyAUrco4r-mGkScpxZIMOAi4pamVX4XRTMDs41xz5ucky2To2vWEV9Gtogh37ZXywi4s7xMVl5XzCuRTwt9EKrhv7mGWl5EnPc/w640-h428/GFSSY_IM2024010812F060.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Then, for the skiers, how about some unstable northwesterly flow on Thursday.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK3En1GgSy-vZ_yFtNAHPy1wCpqv9d7Jd92aTFG_uRTla8sAD0_r7qn55iQCVsg8QYI4x2up4O2GPdg2XBiozAh-hoD-do3ySfF1tRvNW2Pc-tdRnIgHRurg6pU-nux1JPSbxDdrTYAUUFx8dD5RdlB0QMWcwLUX5ayGqPikvGaXJdmxktvpUn9ikaF9Q/s1875/GFSSY_IM2024010812F078.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1254" data-original-width="1875" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK3En1GgSy-vZ_yFtNAHPy1wCpqv9d7Jd92aTFG_uRTla8sAD0_r7qn55iQCVsg8QYI4x2up4O2GPdg2XBiozAh-hoD-do3ySfF1tRvNW2Pc-tdRnIgHRurg6pU-nux1JPSbxDdrTYAUUFx8dD5RdlB0QMWcwLUX5ayGqPikvGaXJdmxktvpUn9ikaF9Q/w640-h428/GFSSY_IM2024010812F078.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>In general, there is good agreement between the GFS and the ECMWF models through Thursday. Thus, I'll be bold and share the GFS-derived time series for Alta. Now don't look ahead. Do not peak beyond 5 PM Thursday. I repeat. Do not peak beyond 5 PM Thursday. Through 5 PM Thursday the GFS is putting out 1.58" of water and 23.4" of mostly low-density snow. The system tomorrow afternoon may produce some higher density snow to start, afterwhich snow to liquid ratios flctuate between 13:1 and 20:1. <div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilUe1YFdbGa7vsks4BooLNVPH0JdF-1UTIL4y2dMT-dAGwioT-HplS-Qr2ArjkNBOFggDT6G5TrGhKPN6MaWGyi9HM918HtMXBhU_UkkjaE4w1toJiUIPIdw5FUj4ok8gwg59flZx58f9r_zsu8avJJe6p-JsNrzFL_63ZP7Hv8BPCmzl4DTuVRFfMMrU/s1400/gfslccforecast_2024010812.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1400" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilUe1YFdbGa7vsks4BooLNVPH0JdF-1UTIL4y2dMT-dAGwioT-HplS-Qr2ArjkNBOFggDT6G5TrGhKPN6MaWGyi9HM918HtMXBhU_UkkjaE4w1toJiUIPIdw5FUj4ok8gwg59flZx58f9r_zsu8avJJe6p-JsNrzFL_63ZP7Hv8BPCmzl4DTuVRFfMMrU/w640-h548/gfslccforecast_2024010812.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>By and large, this period looks locked and loaded for 20–30 inches at Alta from tomorrow afternoon through 5 PM Thursday, although I confess that I want to say "possibly more." Much will depend on what occurs during the post-frontal period on Wednesday night and Thursday. </div><div><br /></div><div>Now you can look beyond 5 PM Thursday. Holy cow! If you want to push the backcountry snowpack to the breaking point, the GFS forecast for the weekend might do it. At 0000 UTC 14 January (5 PM Saturday) it puts a beast of an upper-level trough and frontal system over the Pacific Northwest. Utah is at the tip of an atmospheric river with strong, moist, crest-level flow. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbapkIbxDr3ZuZ38NWGs9NlgV3RHSq0s2FNyWJmo33Jv8Wj5N6wp9L-YgVDCWMyb1aF5G4fI_vwUSFczTUsdK7afZ4WuhRYCChkkrVRZ1MG7fsW8dv79n-_0uryISJXFY0C-nE_JSHj9xilPVAhmWZvE3wWlfxLvtcaT7mcn1DIIx72KVjxZDCuej1nRo/s1875/GFSSY_WS2024010812F132.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1249" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbapkIbxDr3ZuZ38NWGs9NlgV3RHSq0s2FNyWJmo33Jv8Wj5N6wp9L-YgVDCWMyb1aF5G4fI_vwUSFczTUsdK7afZ4WuhRYCChkkrVRZ1MG7fsW8dv79n-_0uryISJXFY0C-nE_JSHj9xilPVAhmWZvE3wWlfxLvtcaT7mcn1DIIx72KVjxZDCuej1nRo/w640-h426/GFSSY_WS2024010812F132.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Eventually that trough and it's cold front come through by 1200 UTC 14 January (5 AM Sunday). It's a monster system, with screaming winds, abundant moisture, and a hell of a punch. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRNJJ9rLtNuRcGQXHbtUWIWXjMaOAtpWJBX5nSix8S6k5ttRjMetKOTHjCKjlJc8XgCOuvv_u3Qvu5TlxRsJhEqC3IG_kBrH3VT41_xBm6I6Uc-T7jvoyEnZVp8l0MkYaQPcfbUXWomnzsdsttwb-ylEi2l1178CYeRy5CRvdpTupPjGdPnzE8E6PpHAk/s1875/GFSSY_WS2024010812F144.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1249" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRNJJ9rLtNuRcGQXHbtUWIWXjMaOAtpWJBX5nSix8S6k5ttRjMetKOTHjCKjlJc8XgCOuvv_u3Qvu5TlxRsJhEqC3IG_kBrH3VT41_xBm6I6Uc-T7jvoyEnZVp8l0MkYaQPcfbUXWomnzsdsttwb-ylEi2l1178CYeRy5CRvdpTupPjGdPnzE8E6PpHAk/w640-h426/GFSSY_WS2024010812F144.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><div>Little wonder that the GFS is putting out more than 4" of water and 60 inches of snow for Alta-Collins through Monday per the time series above.</div><div><br /></div><div>That is, however, a fairly extended forecast, so let's look at a few other models. One is the ECMWF. For 1200 UTC 14 January (5 AM Sunday), it actually has a somewhat similar forecast, but the trough is a tad slower and less intense. We would still see significant snow, but the crest-level winds might not be as strong. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix0ZlG8KEtgmO6C-ZdrvIVBgDUkdci8hwbH2Z_ME_NSMVaZYzDY1S6VSMljW74BbegpRVnrB2kqliXpQfAWGniMZGNDtQYIYPr5Opceqo-eEY1X23r9r9Ies4NWUp1opiFav2o3_CRZYb1jMUn7ParJ2NllZs7Nq6mx0EkYI_ubJ2dKzPBh4kL1dCiD24/s1875/HRESSY_WS2024010812F144.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1249" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix0ZlG8KEtgmO6C-ZdrvIVBgDUkdci8hwbH2Z_ME_NSMVaZYzDY1S6VSMljW74BbegpRVnrB2kqliXpQfAWGniMZGNDtQYIYPr5Opceqo-eEY1X23r9r9Ies4NWUp1opiFav2o3_CRZYb1jMUn7ParJ2NllZs7Nq6mx0EkYI_ubJ2dKzPBh4kL1dCiD24/w640-h426/HRESSY_WS2024010812F144.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Looking at the downscaled NAEFS, nearly all of the members are pretty jacked for the period through 15 January. The mean water equivalent for Alta is 5 inches and the lowest amount is just over 2.5 inches. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH9Jjp5qvzrfhkCtXiI8frwY13rNDcRWcPn5XNwiC5hP3A0Tc0eyfn4zxta-QbQTADLGurNyMSoMfJxz5ste0qDfYcZ_SxfbDnmG_NHhEtjWpRJhaCcJUMjy2fqjLocNPtpGQ9VNSWdFPXT5-RvDRrD4HHJbZTJPSAWAFBsLMCihmG7q_Q4jXq0HJjii0/s1865/NAEFSPL_CLN2024010800F168.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1252" data-original-width="1865" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH9Jjp5qvzrfhkCtXiI8frwY13rNDcRWcPn5XNwiC5hP3A0Tc0eyfn4zxta-QbQTADLGurNyMSoMfJxz5ste0qDfYcZ_SxfbDnmG_NHhEtjWpRJhaCcJUMjy2fqjLocNPtpGQ9VNSWdFPXT5-RvDRrD4HHJbZTJPSAWAFBsLMCihmG7q_Q4jXq0HJjii0/w640-h430/NAEFSPL_CLN2024010800F168.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>The bottom line is that Mother Nature is going to release the hounds. This looks like an incredibly active storm period. It is essential to monitor forecasts (details do change), not just for the mountains but also the valleys, and avalanche forecasts. Be respectful of resort and backcountry closures and give our friends in the snow-safety community your support. The weak snowpack that currently exists is going to get a serious stressing. </div></div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-81596292767311393182024-01-07T11:19:00.006-07:002024-01-07T11:19:59.583-07:00COLD AND SNOWY ALERT!!!All caps seem appropriate given the overnight snowfall and the forecasts for the coming week, which can be summarized in two beautiful words: Cold and Snowy. <div><br /></div><div>Based on the Alta-Collins automated observations, Alta has picked up 21" since the holiday snow drought ended on Thursday through 10 AM this morning. This is all of the low-density variety with a water content of about 6%. I might have preferred some higher density snow to start and help bury the old snow surfaces, but beggars can't be choosers given the lack of snow through the holiday period. </div><div><br /></div><div>Additionally, the forecasts are spectacular. More snow showers today, then a bit of a break before the next system drops in late Tuesday. The GFS forecast valid 0600 UTC 10 January (11 PM MST Tuesday) shows a large-scale pattern with an upper-level risge well off the west coast and strong northwesterly flow moving over the northeast Pacific and into the interior western United States. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMd85CtOTfryTbIJeZ71fzHVWhiYLsrpTz_-sewnbPG65Y_ZFdK6k0v0HYde5tS9HuLOrvvE7AXbBErBq2FezJrT9c0GPxRw40kaS7vb7kOxFzTvK_2BKgMMwlRMJsXZITKd0WLXGDhZlwwQ4FLlcwRIMzB-B8l28QYYgptxhAaH_ihkuhY0tGHLC1a9A/s1875/GFSSY_WS2024010712F066.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1249" data-original-width="1875" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMd85CtOTfryTbIJeZ71fzHVWhiYLsrpTz_-sewnbPG65Y_ZFdK6k0v0HYde5tS9HuLOrvvE7AXbBErBq2FezJrT9c0GPxRw40kaS7vb7kOxFzTvK_2BKgMMwlRMJsXZITKd0WLXGDhZlwwQ4FLlcwRIMzB-B8l28QYYgptxhAaH_ihkuhY0tGHLC1a9A/w640-h426/GFSSY_WS2024010712F066.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Given the strength of the flow and the various "wiggles" in the jet stream, nailing down the timing and intensity of snowfall may be difficult, but a look at out downscaled NAEFS forecast shows that after today's snow and then the dry period through about 0000 UTC 10 January (5 PM MST Tuesday), we're going to see a series of systems coming through to add to totals. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYZDPmUkPswsF1yWpjieXgro-emI8hLVVh0O2EMLTW2KaG0mucp6L9npLHhhYoPhxkPIzVrFwZP46IGbZqO1N0p4hwVjBAUCS9h4HU08nFbNCEjF84ryUil4vXOTBKZ56iE_VkpzKKl_-3fTGuw_AdxI80tteijjnrNPLA3F0_WE1SKQLRbThUl6mZ0l4/s1865/NAEFSPL_CLN2024010700F168.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1252" data-original-width="1865" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYZDPmUkPswsF1yWpjieXgro-emI8hLVVh0O2EMLTW2KaG0mucp6L9npLHhhYoPhxkPIzVrFwZP46IGbZqO1N0p4hwVjBAUCS9h4HU08nFbNCEjF84ryUil4vXOTBKZ56iE_VkpzKKl_-3fTGuw_AdxI80tteijjnrNPLA3F0_WE1SKQLRbThUl6mZ0l4/w640-h430/NAEFSPL_CLN2024010700F168.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>There is actually an unusually tight clustering in those forecasts (we typically see a greater range for Alta). I don't think that reflects that all these forecasts agreeing on the details, but they do agree on this being an active period. From 0000 UTC 10 January (5 PM MST Tuesday) through 0000 UTC 14 January (5 PM MST Saturday), water equivalents are generally in the 2-5" range and snowfall amounts are quite high. I'm not going to say the numbers because this particular product tends to be a bit jacked and doesn't include the influence of wind and compaction on snow-to-liquid ratio, but it looks like a major storm cycle. <div><br /></div><div>By next weekend, we will be looking at a new mountain range with low-elevation snow and better coverage at upper elevations. </div><div><br /></div><div>I'm working today, but am heading out soon to buy some new gloves as my old ones are shot and professional grade insulation will be needed for this period. </div>Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.com2