tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post7976723418506360064..comments2024-03-27T15:09:59.039-06:00Comments on Wasatch Weather Weenies: Does Precision = Accuracy?Jim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-71557407962548123262013-03-20T10:18:43.024-06:002013-03-20T10:18:43.024-06:00I could have said it better, but yes, use all the ...I could have said it better, but yes, use all the models at your disposal. I think a key point is that higher resolution isn't a forecast panacea and that the higher resolution NAM is merely something to add to the full ensemble of forecasts. <br /><br />With regards to Lisa's comments, over 99% of the data ingested into the models today comes from satellites. The next big leap will probably be in the area of radar data assimilation, which is an area of very active research, especially for the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), which will provide conus forecasts at 3-km grid spacing. In situ (e.g., balloon) upper-air observations at high resolution will never happen. Surface observation assimilation, however, has tremendous possibilities...especially the assimilation of high frequency and high density pressure observations, which seem to offer a lot of bang for the buck. Jim Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-87860495343236471002013-03-19T22:00:08.722-06:002013-03-19T22:00:08.722-06:00Why can't you just continue to use the 12 km m...Why can't you just continue to use the 12 km models in the ensemble? More models (now the added 4 km ones) should simply improve the overall performance. Jeff Phttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02817986846758586086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-16494630052564774842013-03-19T15:51:14.101-06:002013-03-19T15:51:14.101-06:00As model resolution increases, what is the NMC doi...As model resolution increases, what is the NMC doing about increasing the resolution of the observational data used to initialize the models? I imagine they're using the same code to "fit" initial conditions to the 4 km resolution NAM that they are using for the 12 km NAM. Would they also be using the same set of observations. Does anyone know? <br /><br />It's fascinating to think about how a model's dynamics and various physical parameterizations are affected by increased resolution. The initial data is just as important, right?Lisahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15180331785357345922noreply@blogger.com