tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post5170504849202613006..comments2024-03-27T15:09:59.039-06:00Comments on Wasatch Weather Weenies: Probabilistic Snowfall ForecastingJim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-82972972847606106912018-01-20T17:17:32.222-07:002018-01-20T17:17:32.222-07:00This came up in a post earlier this week. The Nat...This came up in a post earlier this week. The National Weather Service no longer issues Heavy Snow Warnings. They simply issue winter storm warnings.<br /><br />Jim<br />Jim Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-33987829185882283762018-01-20T12:28:57.704-07:002018-01-20T12:28:57.704-07:00 When was the last time we had a heavy snow warnin... When was the last time we had a heavy snow warning in the Wasatch? Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04029567112037168701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-31878074129704912782018-01-19T22:56:37.327-07:002018-01-19T22:56:37.327-07:00Looking at tonight's forecast, I was just tell...Looking at tonight's forecast, I was just telling my wife that I had no idea what the range meant -- in rigorous terms. Nice to see some probabilities. A CDF for the desired location would be nice to have so that I could quickly visualize the cumulative probability.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-91890916347471568042018-01-19T17:09:19.575-07:002018-01-19T17:09:19.575-07:00I know it's hard. I'm on the weatherman...I know it's hard. I'm on the weatherman's side on this. :) <br /><br />I just get overly excited when somebody promises me 2-3 inches of snow minimum, and then I get angry when only a trace falls. In a way it reminds me of the November 2010 years back. Everyone heard "First blizzard in Utah in X years" and got excited. Then the storm blew in, dumped just a few inches, and was out. People didn't realize blizzard meant a windy storm, not a high precipitation snow storm.<br /><br />I don't have an answer how to communicate the range. I just don't want to get let down with lack of snow.<br /><br />Brad Petersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10953532130290472338noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-43185760473321190392018-01-19T13:40:40.989-07:002018-01-19T13:40:40.989-07:00Many storms feature large contrasts in snowfall al...Many storms feature large contrasts in snowfall along the Wasatch Front. This is more than just the mountains getting more and the valleys getting less. There can be dramatic variations within the Salt Lake Valley, Utah Valley, etc. It is really not possible to provide a single range that completely covers this variability, or you would hear forecasts of "0-12 inches" all the time. There are storm periods where that is the range of snowfall in the Salt Lake Valley, for example. <br /><br />This brings up an issue that I did not have time to discuss in this post and that is if we can produce very detailed and reliable probabilities, how does one then provide useful information to the public and other users? This is an issue not only for the NWS, but anyone involved in weather communication through broadcast and online media.<br /><br />Jim Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-83026908743760360612018-01-19T12:08:56.102-07:002018-01-19T12:08:56.102-07:00"Readers of this blog are snow lovers."
..."Readers of this blog are snow lovers."<br /><br />Yes. Yes I am one.<br /><br />The low end snow totals always make me frustrated, because there have been days where Provo is on the news for hitting 12 inches, and I'm in Ogden raking leaves. Or vice versa, we had a couple of of 15 inch storms last year, and Provo got very little snow those days. <br /><br />My rule of thumb, if the low end prediction is around 50% less than the high end, it's going to be wrong. A city along the Wasatch Front always ends up with just a trace even if the reported minimum is 2 inches. Brad Petersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10953532130290472338noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-45926490012951335972018-01-19T10:02:41.701-07:002018-01-19T10:02:41.701-07:00As someone who works pretty regularly with stats i...As someone who works pretty regularly with stats in my job, those NWS forecasts are way better...thanks for the link.StevePhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07703018192048782123noreply@blogger.com