tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post1072713756206001071..comments2024-03-27T15:09:59.039-06:00Comments on Wasatch Weather Weenies: 2015 Easily on Pace for Warmest on RecordJim Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-29573146819408318562015-09-29T10:22:16.884-06:002015-09-29T10:22:16.884-06:00Brief description of the USCRN here: https://www.n...Brief description of the USCRN here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn/overview.html<br /><br />The graph you note is for the contiguous US, so trends will be influenced by regional climate variability, especially during such a short-term period (~10 years).Jim Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-20363984682204369522015-09-29T10:17:16.882-06:002015-09-29T10:17:16.882-06:00isn't the USCRN supposed to be the most accura...isn't the USCRN supposed to be the most accurate data available?<br />and the only non adjusted data?<br />no warming since the data started 10 yrs ago. <br /><br />http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/national-temperature-index/time-series?datasets[]=uscrn&parameter=anom-tavg&time_scale=p12&begyear=2004&endyear=2015&month=12Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-88397474295383901822015-09-29T09:09:27.958-06:002015-09-29T09:09:27.958-06:00A hiatus in global surface temperature warming is ...A hiatus in global surface temperature warming is not the same thing as global warming stopping. It is well documented that the climate system has continued to warm, being dominated by warming oceans over the last couple decades. Scientists were and are still trying to figure out why the atmosphere has not kept pace. There are a lot of theories for this in the literature and it is important to understand, but statisticians have shown that this pause in rising surface air temperatures is statistically insignificant in terms of the long-term warming trend. In a recent blind test of economists, they agreed: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/sep/18/in-a-blind-test-economists-reject-the-notion-of-a-global-warming-pause.Adam Varblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14991968453822376063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-58098600028994078942015-09-22T13:12:20.245-06:002015-09-22T13:12:20.245-06:00Both the surface and satellite datasets have their...Both the surface and satellite datasets have their warts and measure different things. The surface temperature record isn't perfect, but there seems to be pretty solid consensus now concerning the warming in the instrumented record. Plus, this is where the people, plants, and animals live, so to speak. The satellite record ain't a panacea. There are adjustments that need to be made to the data and, while there is agreement that there's been warming, there's a wider range of results out there in the literature. Jim Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-14137324423346068532015-09-22T12:06:19.214-06:002015-09-22T12:06:19.214-06:00Hi Jim, if you are acquainted w the satellite data...Hi Jim, if you are acquainted w the satellite data I'd like to see what you have to say on the discrepancy. This has come up in my global warming reading a decade or so ago and there was an explanation which I forgot. Meantime, a few weeks back, maybe it was that cold spell, I got a wild hair and downloaded the NOAA climate data for Alta. January overnight low for the period 1945-2015 averaged 13 degrees F, w a low of 3 in 1949 and high of 22, you may be surprised, in 1986, Second was 21 in 2015. Trend increase for the period is 1 degree every 18 years. 10 year average was 11.8 for 1945-1954, and 13.8 for 2006-2015; minimum in the last 10 years was 6 in 2008. January daytime high at Alta averaged 30 w a trend increase of 1 degree every 44 years. Five of the last ten years the January daytime high has exceeded the essential 32. In terms of us Weenies, its Alta surface that matters. Lower locations are almost as important, but I've more or less resigned myself to Neff's starts being a special treat as I become old. If I get a double wild hair, I'll e-mail you the file and pester you about its meaning. For now, we must pray for more snow, less wind, and Arctic airPeter Donnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-21786382624717709812015-09-22T09:01:43.450-06:002015-09-22T09:01:43.450-06:00Hi Jim, "those wishing to argue that global w...Hi Jim, "those wishing to argue that global warming stopped" are the authors of the last IPCC report, where the global warming hiatus was amply discussed, and all the authors of 50+ papers published lately in the literature discussing different possible explanations for the hiatus. <br /><br />While the NOAA and GISTEMP records are observational data and they clearly show very warm temperatures in the last few years, including this one, the NASA MSU satellite records are also empirical data and neither UAH or RSS have detected this latest warmth. Both agree that the hiatus lasts for about 18 years now. Given the fact that models show more warming aloft, I think that this discrepancy should be addressed by scientists, rather than ignored with a constant focus on the more alarmist surface records.<br /><br />Leaving that aside, my warmest thanks for your weather/nature related posts. Last Saturday I was hiking in the peaks of the Albion Basion and I could hardly believe the beauty that the sudden arrival of autumn has brought to the Wasatch.<br /><br />Best regards, MikelMikel Mariñelarenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16104103451964316348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-62134758291458753032015-09-22T08:30:11.304-06:002015-09-22T08:30:11.304-06:00Sorry...nothing to do with atomic bombs. The lead...Sorry...nothing to do with atomic bombs. The leading mechanisms for the slowdown are cooling associated with the increase in pollution/aerosols during the post WWII industrial boom and/or oceanic conditions. Note that the warming from about 1910 to 1945 appears to be due primarily to an increase in solar output. <br /><br />Jim Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799757451626876963noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-13154731639827089882015-09-21T20:41:42.436-06:002015-09-21T20:41:42.436-06:00OK, Atmospheric testing of Atomic Bombs ran from 1...OK, Atmospheric testing of Atomic Bombs ran from 1945-1980. There appears to be a pretty good correlation during that time with a reversal of warming which began around 1910. Perhaps we should begin dropping more bombs.Bubbanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-34512263746196687822015-09-21T17:08:54.325-06:002015-09-21T17:08:54.325-06:00Atomic bombs tested in New Mexico and used twice a...Atomic bombs tested in New Mexico and used twice against Japan<br />Tommy T.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12258106751747026103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6168620747792092240.post-51973616126414234532015-09-21T11:19:30.732-06:002015-09-21T11:19:30.732-06:00Any idea as to what may have caused the reversal i...Any idea as to what may have caused the reversal in temps around 1945?Bubbanoreply@blogger.com