"I'm going to go up and take a lap today, interested?"
- Text received 7:45 AM
Ski conditions in the upper Cottonwoods have improved dramatically since the lunatics below braved skiing Gunsight a couple of days ago.
The overnight storm came through in spades and as of 0800 MDT has delivered 0.59" of water equivalent and 14" of fresh at Alta Collins, bringing the total snow depth to 21 inches.
The latest radar imagery (ending 1440UTC/0840 MDT) shows ongoing post-frontal valley rain and mountain snow showers, with some likely lake enhancement.
Water equivalent rates the last few hours have been light at Alta Collins (≤0.05 inches), but it's snow and it will add up some. Snow showers will continue at times this morning before tapering off this afternoon. Perhaps a couple more inches at Alta Collins. Areas east of the lake might do better as the flow becomes more westerly this morning.
We might get a little more snow tomorrow as a weak trough swings through. Some models, like the NAM below, are generating a healthy band of precipitation along the trough, but Alta is right on the edge. Much will depend on the details.
I hate to say this, but the extended range forecasts are pretty much a disaster as a monster blocking pattern sets up along the west coast. The GEFS 180-hour forecast ensemble below shows all members with a monster ridge along the west coast.
There's a chance something might sneak down the back side of the ridge or push up here from the south if we can get a closed low to setup just right over the southwest. The latter, however, would probably be a relatively warm event.
So, enjoy your pig wallow today. Friday marks the return of fall, the start of the melt on south aspects, and the beginning of the rot on shady north aspects.