Friday, June 1, 2018

Summer Begins Today

Based on the calendar, meteorological summer, defined to be June, July, and August, begins today.

Based on the weather, that appears to be the case as well.  April is the wettest month of the year in the Salt Lake Valley climatologically, and when we transition into the hot, dry days of summer varies from year to year.  Sometimes we can keep the showers going into early June.  In other years, they peter out in mid May.  Some years the transition is abrupt, others gradual.

Although the total May precipitation at the airport this year was only 1.26 inches, compared to an average of 1.95, Mother Nature did a reasonable job keeping showers going through the month.  Measurable precipitation was observed on 11 days of the month, most recently on May 30th.  Really, you can't complain about that. 

Source: NWS
However, it appears the switch is being flicked today and that our run of spring showers is probably coming to an end.  Maybe we get an isolated sprinkle or a shower this morning, but after that, things are looking dry.  The 10-day GFS forecast below shows scant precipitation over Utah and a pattern that is quite June like, with precipitation associated with the retreating storm track to our north and precipitation associated with the early stages of the monsoon extending northward through Mexico into Colorado.  

The 10-day forecast from shows dry conditions predominating over the period with maximum temperatures generally at or above seasonal averages.  

Looking more broadly at the various model forecasts and ensembles, there are a few weak troughs that could perhaps give us a few showers during the period, but by and large, it appears spring is over and summer begins today. 

Welcome to June.  

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