Friday, May 4, 2018

The End Is Nigh

All ski seasons come to an end.  We are following up our sub-par winter with a dry and warm spring, which means the end is nigh for winter 2017/18.  The storms earlier this week were simply a futile effort to stave off the inevitable.  We are now transitioning into a period of warm, dry weather that will serious damage what is left of the snowpack.  

Model forecasts for the next 7 days show scant precipitation and above average temperatures.  The NAEFS ensemble, for example, generates a mean of just a few hundredths of an inch of water equivalent across much of the state.  Due to dryness and warmth, snow probabilities are near zilch for the period.
The plume for Alta Collins shows scant precipitation.  A few members of the Canadian ensemble give us .1-.2 inches of water in fits and starts here and there.  
Longer range forecasts are always dicey, but aren't optimistic either.  The end is nigh.  From here on out, take advantage of weak cold frontal passages for more supportable corn.  And remember, when the going gets tough, the tough roadtrip.  Deep snowpacks exist to the north.  

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