However, we have a shot at one making it to the state Wednesday night and Thursday if model forecasts hold. The average integrated water vapor transport in forecasts produced by the Global Ensemble Forecast System for 0600 UTC 22 March (0000 MDT Thursday) shows strong values extending from the Pacific Ocean northeastward into Utah. Values exceeding 250 kg/m/s (outlined by red line) indicate atmospheric river conditions, and most of Utah is covered.
It is still a bit early to discuss details of where, when, and how much precipitation will fall. Not all atmospheric river events are big precipitation producers in Utah, but some are. Much depends on the orientation of the atmospheric river, the orientation of the flow relative to major terrain features, and the efficiency of the precipitation processes embedded in the flow. Also important is the duration of the event. Right now, it looks like we'll see a warm, humid (by Utah standards) precipitation event developing first in southwest Utah late Wednesday and then in other parts of the state Wednesday night and Thursday. Until then, enjoy the spring break and monitor forecasts.