Monday, March 12, 2018

It Ain't over until It's Over

Don't be fooled by the balmy weather, the loss of valley snow, and the diminishing snowpack in the mountain valleys.  It is only March 12th.  There will be more powder skiing and perhaps even some tastes of winter in the valley.  Spring in the Intermountain West is typically a rollercoaster ride. 

Indeed, we're in for sum ups and downs this week.  Monday and Tuesday look mild, with the NWS forecast below showing highs Monday and Tuesday of 64˚F and 74˚F at the Salt Lake Airport. 

The weather then "gets interesting" on Wednesday in advance of a cold front that is currently forecast by the NAM to be over eastern Nevada by 3 PM MDT (2100 UTC) 14 March.  Thus, Wedensday right now looks breezy to windy with perhaps some showers around.  We may get a frontal passage Wednesday night if things hold together as presently advertised by the models.

What happens later in the week depends strongly on the structure and depth of the upper-level trough that is forecast to be located along the Pacific coast.  Most of the GEFS solutions below put us in large-scale southwesterly flow, but precipitation amounts for the mountains will be strongly dependent on small-scale details that are difficult to forecast at this stage. 

Keep an eye on forecasts this week and expect some uncertainty. 

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