Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Keep Expectations Low

I've been thinking of hanging it up for the season.  Not skiing, but forecasting.  It's starting to get depressing.

I needed to remind myself this morning what a decent storm looks like in the Wasatch.  Certainly over an inch of water in 24 hours.  Or, better yet, a good pasting and base builder, which would give more than two inches of water in 24 hours (maybe 3 at the upper end).  What I wouldn't give for that.

We do have a storm on the horizon.  The GFS forecasts a cold front pushing through Utah tomorrow at 5 PM MST.  The cold front is really a thing of beauty, wonderfully continuous in terms of the wind shift, temperature gradient, and precipitation band from NW Wyoming all the way to the White Mountains.  That's a rarity.


We look to get some mountain and valley snowfall with the front.  Following frontal passage, a strong surface cyclone forms in the four corners area.  Could be some nasty weather for the Canyonlands area.  The Wasatch, however, are on the edge of it, the so-called "wrap around" area.


A best case scenario for us would be for the front to be a good producer and the wrap around to be close enough to give us some additional snow.

Most members of the SREF ensemble, however, give us 0.1-0.3" of water at Alta Collins with the frontal passage tomorrow afternoon or evening, and little thereafter.  There are five members (out of 26) that go for either a more productive front and/or wrap round period, with an inch of water produce by one member.  One out of 26 ain't that bad right?

So, best to expect this to be a relatively modest event.  The snow will likely be of the low-density variety, so my take is 3–6 inches for Alta Collins with the frontal passage.  More will require a more productive front or wrap-around period than currently being advertised.  At least it's white.

3 comments:

  1. Yes these are times to try the souls of all true wannabe dirtbag skibums. I will understand if you don't post anymore. However, whatever you post I will read with relish!

    NOW! is the time to PRAY for MORE SNOW and LESS WIND

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  2. Give up forecasting and focus on burning skis, taking ceremonial shots and other assorted voodoo to appease the snow gods.

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  3. For what its worth, successive model runs of both the GFS 12z and 18z runs continue the trend of a slowing and deepening upper low over southern Utah.
    Maybe some hope for snow amounts on the higher end...5-8 inches in the Wasatch??

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