I've been thinking of hanging it up for the season. Not skiing, but forecasting. It's starting to get depressing.
I needed to remind myself this morning what a decent storm looks like in the Wasatch. Certainly over an inch of water in 24 hours. Or, better yet, a good pasting and base builder, which would give more than two inches of water in 24 hours (maybe 3 at the upper end). What I wouldn't give for that.
We do have a storm on the horizon. The GFS forecasts a cold front pushing through Utah tomorrow at 5 PM MST. The cold front is really a thing of beauty, wonderfully continuous in terms of the wind shift, temperature gradient, and precipitation band from NW Wyoming all the way to the White Mountains. That's a rarity.
We look to get some mountain and valley snowfall with the front. Following frontal passage, a strong surface cyclone forms in the four corners area. Could be some nasty weather for the Canyonlands area. The Wasatch, however, are on the edge of it, the so-called "wrap around" area.
A best case scenario for us would be for the front to be a good producer and the wrap around to be close enough to give us some additional snow.
Most members of the SREF ensemble, however, give us 0.1-0.3" of water at Alta Collins with the frontal passage tomorrow afternoon or evening, and little thereafter. There are five members (out of 26) that go for either a more productive front and/or wrap round period, with an inch of water produce by one member. One out of 26 ain't that bad right?