The large-scale pattern has not changed. I repeat, the large-scale pattern has not changed.
Yes, we got a couple of miracle storms prior to Christmas, but on the hemispheric scale, we are still dealing with a highly perturbed, wavy, high-amplitude pattern.
Note, for example, the dynamic tropopause (jet-stream level) analysis from 0000 UTC 27 Dec (1700 MST Tuesday/Yesterday). Deep trough over the eastern US. Deep trough off the coast of Asia. High amplitude ridge over the eastern Atlantic.
You want snow, go to the lee of the Great Lakes or western Japan. Both have been getting pummeled.
And, there's no end in sight for the dry weather. Forecasts below are from the 0000 UTC 27 December initialized ECMWF and GFS models through the end of the holiday period (0000 UTC 3 January/1700 MST 2 January). Storm track to our north. Dry southwest.
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| Source: weather.us |
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| Source: weather.us |
There are a few members of the NAEFS that drag the moisture down south enough to give us a little more action around later in the 7-day forecast period. Thus there is a little hope, but I'm keeping my expectations low. Plumes below are for Alta-Collins and show a small number of ensemble members giving us some action on or after the 30th of December. Most generate no more than 4 inches of snow. Sad!
Is this La Niña? I'm not ready to endorse that viewpoint. Yes, there are aspects of this pattern that are consistent with La Niña, but there are other aspects that are not. Mechanisms affecting the large-scale circulation are multifaceted and complex. Maybe we'll deal with this in a future post.
don't ever recall such a dry CONUS 14 day look. Locked in patterns in winter appear to be our future.
ReplyDeleteDare we call it the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge?
ReplyDeleteV.2
ReplyDeleteMaybe better to call it the FRRR. I'll let you figure that one out. It rimes with HRRR. As in the HRRR continues to lean toward the FRRR.
DeleteJim, looks like the Tug Hill Area is getting pummeled:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.localsyr.com/news/local-news/snow-piles-up-on-tug-hill/888503431
Yeah, I've been watching it. Many similarities between that case and the one we've been working on from December 2013, including the band initiation along the southwest shore bulge.
DeleteHey Jim, curious whether there is anything to say about the consistency, winter-to-winter, of snowfall in northern Japan. It seems like every winter, its dumping in Japan. Is this actually true? If so, is there a reason why Japan is less subject to variability in annual totals?
ReplyDeleteJapan probably has the most remarkable snow climate in the world. The mountains of western Japan, near the Sea of Japan, observe some of the deepest seasonal snowpacks in the world, with much of the snow falling from December to February. January in those areas is probably the surest bet for powder anywhere in the world. Average *monthly* snowfall at Sukayu Onsen, near Hakkodo ski area on northern Honshu, is 181 inches, more than double Alta's in January.
DeleteThis is why January in the mountains of western Japan is probably the surest bet for powder anywhere in the world. Variability around a mean that is that large is not that consequential when a really bad year would equal the monthly snowfall at Alta. If I remember right, something like 90% of the Januaries produce at least 90 inches of snow at a Japanese Meteorological Agency observing site near Niseko.
I have never done a careful analysis of variability. Japan's climate is very different from Utah's. The snow accumulation season, especially at mid to lower elevations, is very concentrated in the December to February period. January gets a lot of snow, but if the winter monsoon is late to arrive, you could be dealing with minimal snowpack in early January, for example.
Jim
Thank you for the thoughtful reply, its good food for thought for this couchbound, injured skier.
Delete"Maybe better to call it the FRRR. I'll let you figure that one out. It rimes with HRRR. As in the HRRR continues to lean toward the FRRR."
ReplyDeleteI will think about those and try to figure it out. I have no clue as of the final hours of 2017. The "HR" part might indicate the Heartbreak Ridge.
Happy New Year to all weather weenies!