The loop below shows very nicely the evolution of the western "Death Ridge" from 1200 UTC (0600 MDT) Saturday 8 July through 1200 UTC (0600 MDT) Saturday 15 July. The evolution is subtle, but there is some weakening early this week (hence the slight drop in maximum temperatures), followed by a Lazarus like return to dominate the circulation over the western US by next weekend.
At this point, I rate the odds that this July will go down as the hottest on record in Salt Lake as better than 50/50. That is admittedly a risky forecast to make with three weeks left in the month, but we are off to a hell of a start. Through the first 9 days of July, the average temperature for the month was 86.5ºF. If that were to hold for the entire month, we would beat 2014 by a full 2.4ºF.
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| Source: NOAA Regional Climate Centers |
At this point, I hope that either the models are wrong or we break the record. If we must suffer, we may as well get bragging rights.
If those 20C 700-mb temperatures for next weekend verify, it looks like we could make a run at the all-time record high. It's a ways out but they have been remarkably consistent in forecasts.
ReplyDeleteIndeed. I think the all-time 700-mb temperature here is 20.2ºC. GFS currently spitting out 18.4ºC on Saturday afternoon and 19.3ºC on Sunday afternoon. We'll see how things play out.
DeleteI keep hoping for backpacking weather. Alas....
Jim