|Picturesque Hawaiian waterfalls could be roaring soon|
Based on analyses from the National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center, about 22 tropical storms and hurricanes have passed within 200 miles of Hawaii since 1950 and 10 have passed within 75 miles.
A look at a multi model suite shows a couple of tracks that pass between the Big Island and Maui, but others going to the south.
The official track cone, which represents the area that is likely to include the probable track of the tropical cyclone center, extends from the center of the Big Island southward.
Madeline is expected to weaken some as it approaches Hawaii, but will still be a dangerous storm with hurricane-force winds possible on the Big Island on Wednesday (depending on track and intensity), heavy rain on the Big Island and possibly other Hawaiian Islands Wednesday through Friday, and dangerous surf. Official graphics and forecasts are available here.
As a mountain meteorologist, I'm interested in seeing how precipitation is affected by the interaction of the system with the topography of the Big Island. I plan to keep an eye on this over the next couple of days.