Thoughts on the Big Euro Snow 10 days from now?
Ha ha. God doesn't play dice and neither do I!
I'm looking forward to reading more of your posts analyzing the localized effects of future weather patterns on particulate matter levels associated with the growing economy in the Salt Lake area as well as the Heber Valley and Park City area. At least until we get closer to next years ski vacation in Park City!
Similiarly, I would be interested in localized differences in pm2.5 based on elevation. For example, if the level is 40 at the bottom of the valley, can i go for a run on the BST? Ferguson?
While I enjoy the reports about the snow, winter storms etc I also follow you to better understand the weather and patterns for soaring in central and northern Utah. We have a big event in Nephi last two weeks in June and wondering about any forecasts ot thoughts on the monsoon for central and Utah. I know modelling the monsoon is as nebulous as lake effect but you asked
discuss how you use different weather tools to forecast short and/or long range
The strong El Nino this year was of major interest for those of us who like to play in the snow. I was wondering if you could touch on the impact of an El Nino in eastern and southern Africa, and the devastating drought it causes?
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How about an article that compares the general circulation patterns of the 1997-1998 El Nino to this season's El Nino?
...for the winter season, of course. :)
You often compare data to average snow year. I've seen somewhere that there is a long term trend towards a reduced snow pack (and that its reduced by something like 30% already). If you take this trend into account, was this year a below average snow year? What are the expectations, and what should our expectations be as skiiers for future winters?
Trends in snowfall and snowpack vary geographically and with elevation. A full discussion is at http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com/2012/04/look-at-snowpack-trends.html. For the upper-elevations of Utah, there is no statistically significant downward trend in 1 April snowpack. Lower elevations of Utah there probably is a small long-term decline. 30% would not be valid in our mountains.
Jim -Here's a topic. How can the SWE ever be great than the PREC? I see this currently at both Ben Lomond and Snowbird. I had thought maybe it was windloading, but shouldn't that affect measures of both? Even the averages at Ben Lomond tend to converge in early March, which is physically impossible according to my understanding of things (which may be flawed). thx!
Perhaps I'll eventually expand on this ventually in a post, but the reason is that these are two different measurements. If I remember correctly, PREC is the amount of water that has been collected by a large-storage precipitation gauge. SWE is the water equivalent of the snowpack as measured by pressure on a pillow that sits on the ground. Precipitation gauges are prone to undercatch - meaning they don't always collect all the snow that is falling. The snowpack on the pillow can be affected by all sorts of processes, including wind transport, water routing, etc.
Got it - thanks.
How about how to read and interpret weather information from a skew-t chart? My personal application is soaring and forecasting the strength and tops of thermals. The NWS has a tool at http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/ but my understanding is very limited.
I've tried to write up a post on that several times and it's very difficult. Here's a better option. Goto http://www.meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/skewt/. You'll need to sign up for an account. Complete the Skew-T mastery module.
I'll do that. Thanks for the info.
Maybe your take on: http://www.ocregister.com/articles/weather-712978-study-climate.html