Friday, March 4, 2016

No-Change Forecast and Arctic Sea-Ice Record

No-Change Forecast

Not much change in the forecast from yesterday to today.  The models are still calling for a front to move through northern Utah on Sunday.  Most of the NAEFS ensemble members, for example,  are calling for a significant event, although I think the totals might be a bit overdone (e.g., Alta below).


After that, most (but not all) of the NAEFS ensemble members are keeping us mainly dry with only a few snow showers here or there through the middle of next week.  The European has a similar solution.  After that I'm not speculating.

Arctic Sea-Ice Record

As most of you know, globally average surface temperatures have really jumped through the roof over the past several months due to the combination of long-term global warming with a strong El Nino event.  Much of the focus has been on the tropical Pacific and projections of impacts on the western U.S., but this has also been a remarkably warm winter in the Arctic.  This warmth, along with other factors, has contributed to the lowest average February sea-ice extent in the satellite record.

Source: NSIDC
Further discussion this record minimum is available from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

6 comments:

  1. Is the first graph say model averages call for 3" of water (not snow) at Alta? Anywhere in that ballpark would be fantastic. Half that would be good. Yay!

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    1. Each thin green or light green line is a forecast for water equivalent (not snow) produced after we have "downscaled" an ensemble member. The downscaling takes the low-resolution forecast and attempts to build in topographic effects. The thick green line is the mean.

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  2. Stupid question: is "0Z" midnight here or Greenwich? I've never seen that mentioned.

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    1. These time zone issues drive me nuts. I try to use both UTC and MST (or MDT depending on the time of year), but sometimes I forget.

      UTC=GMT="Z" Time. This is universal time that is the same all over the world, making it much easier for meteorologists.

      MST=UTC-7
      MDT=UTC-6

      When we are on MST, as is the case now, 0Z is 5 PM local time. When we are on MDT, 0Z is 6 PM local time.

      Jim

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  3. Hi Jim,

    So any updated thoughts? We are all jonesing, but as I look at the water vapor track & some other elements, I suspect we're maybe not going to see as much as the NAM & GFS project. Worse, I suspect rain here in Park City, at least for much of the event. Please tell me I'm wrong..

    Best regards, Garry Beckett

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