Thursday, April 23, 2015

The Winter That Wouldn't Start Now Won't End

I had what I thought was a great last ski day of the year last weekend.  With warm weather on tap for this week and a layer of dusty snow not buried far below the surface, I figured that we'd be skiing nothing but snirt by this weekend.

I'm now thinking that I will be doing some skiing this weekend.  The models are advertising the passage of two troughs, the first late Friday

and the second late Saturday.

These look to be fairly warm systems bringing mountain snow and valley rain through Saturday, with somewhat cooler air moving in for Sunday, although even then current forecasts suggest snow levels at or above bench level.  Given the warmth of the storm, expect heavy, near-Cascadian snow that may become somewhat drier on Sunday.

Nevertheless it's white.  Our downscaled ensemble forecast plumes show the two periods of heavier precipitation with a mean water equivalent after subtracting off the showery stuff today and early tomorrow of about 1.5 inches with a range of about .75 to 2 inches for the bulk of the ensemble members (some go for higher, but that's a lower probability outcome).

We'll have to see how all this comes together, but fresh snow for the weekend looks likely. 

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