Snowfall forecasting is particularly problematic when the forecast places you anticipate being in the melting layer where precipitation is transitioning from dry snow to wet snow to slush and then finally rain.
|Source: Secrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth|
Indeed that is what has happened. Yesterday's NAM forecast for 1500 UTC (9 AM MDT) this morning called for a 700-mb temperature of -9ºC or so, cold enough to put the U in the melting layer with the anticipation of wet snow.
Instead, we're about 2ºC warmer in this morning's NAM forecast for 1500 UTC (9 AM MDT) this morning. That shifts the melting layer up nearly 1000 feet and turns our flakes into rain.
If we get a burst of very intense precipitation, perhaps we can turn over to snow, graupel, or ice pellets but that will likely be short lived. Oh how I miss winter!