Friday, November 7, 2014

Nuri Update

At 1500 UTC, what is now extratropical cyclone Nuri was south of the western Aleutians (GFS forecast overlaid).  

The Ocean Prediction Center analysis for 3 hours earlier at 1200 UTC showed a central pressure of 964 mb with rapid intensification and developing hurricane force winds.

Source: OPC
Their analysis for 0000 UTC showed a central pressure of 984 mb, so that's 30 mb of deepening in 12 hours, which is quite impressive.

Observations from the Eareckson Air Station on Shemya Island (in the red box in the top figure) show that the sea-level pressure has fallen about 45 mb in the past 15 hours.  The current pressure tendency is almost 7 mb/hour.

Source: MesoWest
Being ahead of the storm, the wind at Eareckson is currently out of the southeast and has been steadily picking up steam.  The most recent observation shows sustained winds of 71 miles per hour with gusts to 83 miles per hour.

The forecast track and movement of the low is such that it is probably going to blow like hell at Eareckson even after the low tracks to their north and the flow shifts to westerly.  It's going to be a long day and night there as they have yet to see the worst of it.  Get a look at the latest obs by clicking here.  

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