Sunday, November 30, 2014

Living on Scraps

I keep hoping for a big storm cycle to add to the current snowpack, but the forecast is pessimistic.  Below is our experimental downscaled forecast system (see Snow is Coming but How Much for more information) and through 0000 UTC 7 December the downscaled average precipitation produced by the 22 ensemble forecasts is less than an inch of water for the central Wasatch and less than 12 inches of snow.  Only 80% of the downscaled ensemble forecasts produce more than 6 inches of snow in the higher elevations of the central Wasatch and none produce more than 24".

Although I emphasize that this is an experimental product and we don't know the biases all that well (I suspect if anything these forecasts are too wet and snowy on average), it is sufficient to illustrate that we'll be living on storm scraps for the next week, with our best chance of snow late Tuesday and Wednesday.  Let's hope one of the snowier ( > 12 inch) forecasts verifies, although I suspect a more modest event is more likely.

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